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BC

Boston College 32 at Virginia 43

UVA
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:40 · Nash Griffin punt for 44 yds, downed at the BC 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−0.8Pregame prior+11.1Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:39: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 47 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +8.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:46: Keytaon Thompson run for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +8.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 36 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +12.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:44: Brennan Armstrong run for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +14.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:19: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 15 yds for a TD (Dennis Grosel pass to Zay Flowers for Two-Point Conversion) — BC win probability +8.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 6 at BC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12UVA 4th & 17 at BC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:47UVA 4th & 8 at BC 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BC 4th & 4 at BC 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:40UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34BC 4th & 6 at BC 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 47, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:44BC 4th & 5 at BC 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:32UVA 4th & 10 at BC 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:32BC 4th & 17 at UVA 32, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:31UVA 4th & 2 at BC 39, up 19
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:09BC 4th & 12 at UVA 33, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:02UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 18, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:12BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:39UVA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:46UVA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07BC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:44UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:16UVA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:19BC Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:32UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:01BC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
65.0%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Adeeb Atariwa for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-5
65.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+25
65.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 25 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
65.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Dennis Grosel) to the BC 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+21
65.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VIRGINIA 35 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:5065% → 65%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
50
+8
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Jahmin MuseSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
65.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 30Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-10
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 5 yards to the BC25, PENALTY VA holding (Ryan Swoboda) 10 yards to the BC40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+24
65.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 24 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+3
65.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-9
65.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 19
OPP 22
-8
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jason Maitre for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 27
OPP 30
+10
64.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 10 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+38
64.9%
Brian Delaney 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 5:0035% → 39%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
65.3%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+12
65.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 12 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.3%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 26Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
65.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete, broken up by Mandy AlonsoSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+23
65.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to CJ Lewis for 23 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
64.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 46Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+12
65.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 12 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
64.6%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
64.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
64.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+45
61.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 45 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:2564% → 63%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
63.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 7 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
63.6%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+4
63.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
63.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the BC 8Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
63.2%
Brian Delaney 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4738% → 38%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.1%
Travis Levy run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
61.8%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
61.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
62.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 8 yds to the Virg 39 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
62.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Shane SimpsonSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
62.2%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
61.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
61.2%
Nash Griffin punt for 44 yds, downed at the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7INT
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
61.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 35 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
59.5%
Travis Levy run for 7 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
59.3%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
60.0%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
59.3%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted De'Vante Cross return for no gain to the Virg 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 3:2961% → 72%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
61.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 14
0
61.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+4
60.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
61.6%
Shane Simpson run for 6 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+10
61.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
61.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+15
63.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 15 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
72.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 47 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
68.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 3 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
67.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 1 yd to the BC 30Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
68.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Matt GahmSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+7
69.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 39 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:0872% → 81%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
71.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 23 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
72.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 29 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
80.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3922% → 34%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.2%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
78.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
77.8%
Travis Levy run for 4 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
77.6%
Dennis Grosel run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
50
-3
76.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 47Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+17
77.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 17 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
65.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 36 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
71.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 8 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-27
72.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Jahmin Muse return for 12 yds to the BC 42 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (Max Richardson) to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:3131% → 37%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
68.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 12 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
69.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 11 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
68.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 7 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+12
67.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to CJ Lewis for 12 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
67.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (D'Angelo Amos) to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+35
62.6%
Aaron Boumerhi 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
65.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
65.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
65.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Brandon SebastianSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
66.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Lavel Davis Jr.) to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+13
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 13 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
66.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+7
65.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 24 , Jaelen Gill returns for 7 yds to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:0035% → 38%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
65.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 4 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+26
64.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 26 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
61.7%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
61.8%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Grant return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4066% → 80%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
66.2%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
66.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, PENALTY BC pass interference (Josh DeBerry) 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
80.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
78.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
79.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Nick JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+41
80.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 41 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:1480% → 88%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
79.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 19 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
81.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 24 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
82.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the BC 5Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
82.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the BC 4Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
81.8%
Billy Kemp IV rush for 4 yards to the BC0, clock 05:09, PENALTY VA personal foul (Lavel Davis Jr.) 15 yards to the BC19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+9
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 9 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
88.3%
Brian Delaney 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
85.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 50 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
81.2%
Travis Levy run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
81.7%
Dennis Grosel sacked by De'Vante Cross for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
84.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
85.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:0390% → 98%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
89.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Virg 40 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Keytaon Thompson) to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 12
OWN 30
+21
89.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 21 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
90.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 3 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
90.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 8 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
90.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+18
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 18 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (Kam Arnold) to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -21 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
95.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-6
95.2%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Matt Gahm for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 16 Dennis Grosel fumbled, recovered by BC Christian Mahogany , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 20
OWN 16
-11
95.4%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Mandy Alonso for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 5Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 31
OWN 5
0
95.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 47 , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.7%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
97.7%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
97.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+46
97.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 8 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:504% → 13%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
96.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+19
95.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to CJ Lewis for 19 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+21
95.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 21 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the Virg 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BC Dennis GroselSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 26
OPP 47
0
95.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to CJ Lewis, broken up by Joey BlountSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 26
OPP 47
+14
96.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 14 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+18
95.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 18 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
87.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 15 yds for a TD (Dennis Grosel pass to Zay Flowers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:4794% → 100%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
94.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
94.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+43
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 43 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25INT
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+46
98.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 46 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
97.7%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted D'Angelo Amos return for 6 yds to the Virg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
99.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 3 yds to the Virg 14 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+4
99.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+10
99.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Jaelen Gill returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:511% → 4%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 6 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
99.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 8 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
99.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 26 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 10 yds for a TD Dennis Grosel pass attempt to Jaelen Gill good, PENALTY BC pass interference (Jehlani Galloway) 15 yards to the VA18, NO PLAY. (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 46Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 47Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:44
Brennan Armstrong run for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+14
TD · Q2 1:07
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 36 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 7:39
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 47 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com