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UVA

Virginia 14 at Miami 19

MIA
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:04 · Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense+20.2Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Score differential+7.8Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 3:47: Jose Borregales 20 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:04: Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout VIRGINIA, clock 12:04 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MIA win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:27: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 35 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +14.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27: Justin Duenkel kickoff for 56 yds , Gurvan Hall Jr. return for 10 yds to the MiaFl 19 — MIA win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:23: Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST down — UVA win probability +4.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 6:39MIA 4th & 1 at UVA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39MIA 4th & 20 at UVA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:02UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:02MIA 4th & 18 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:02UVA 4th & 2 at MIA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:36MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09UVA 4th & 18 at MIA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:02MIA 4th & 11 at UVA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:39MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:43UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:47MIA 4th & 3 at UVA 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−10.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:47UVA 4th & 12 at MIA 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:04UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:04UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:02MIA 4th & 4 at UVA 40, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−1.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:37UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:32MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:06UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:04MIA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:27UVA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2885% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
84.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 32 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
84.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 43 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:2615% → 17%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
84.7%
Armstrong, B pass incomplete to Kelly, T, PENALTY UM personal foul (Carter, A) 15 yards to the UM49, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
84.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+9
84.6%
Iraken Armstead run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Gurvan Hall Jr.Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+13
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 13 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
84.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 39 yds · 3:2783% → 82%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
83.3%
King, D pass complete to Mallory, W for no gain to the UM16 (Zandier, Z), PENALTY UM holding (Mammarelli, D) 8 yards to the UM8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 18
OWN 8
-2
83.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 20
OWN 6
+19
83.3%
D'Eriq King run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
83.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
83.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 26 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
83.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
83.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
83.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
82.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
82.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-3
82.8%
D'Eriq King sacked by Matt Gahm for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-12
82.6%
D'Eriq King sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 45 MIAMI FL Penalty, intentional grounding (D'Eriq King) to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
81.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Charles Snowden at the Virg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
81.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Virg 11Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
81.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
81.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
81.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Nash Griffin punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Gurvan Hall Jr. at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:3681% → 79%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
80.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 1 yd to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
80.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
80.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
80.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
80.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 8
OWN 0
0
80.2%
PENALTY UM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY VA unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+38
80.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 38 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
81.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
81.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marshall Few for 6 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
81.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
81.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark Pope, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-7
80.7%
D'Eriq King sacked by Zane Zandier for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 18
OPP 25
+42
79.0%
Jose Borregales 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by D'Angelo Amos N/A return for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
78.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
77.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
77.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
77.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
77.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
78.1%
Nash Griffin punt for 39 yds, downed at the MiaFl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2078% → 76%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
77.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
77.8%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
77.2%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 9
OWN 5
0
76.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 30 yds · 6:2025% → 27%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
74.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
74.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Shane SimpsonSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
75.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
74.5%
Iraken Armstead run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+5
73.7%
Iraken Armstead run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
73.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
73.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+11
74.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
73.7%
Iraken Armstead run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
73.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Tony Poljan) to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-12
74.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Bradley Jennings Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 29
+11
71.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 11 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
72.6%
Brian Delaney 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:0775% → 78%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+28
76.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 28 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
77.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
78.1%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
78.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+9
78.1%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 9 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
78.1%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-2
78.1%
D'Eriq King sacked by Adeeb Atariwa for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
77.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will Mallory, broken up by D'Angelo AmosSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
77.9%
Jose Borregales 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10END OF HALF
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:1922% → 23%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
80.0%
Taulapapa, W rush for 4 yards to the VA40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY VA holding (Swoboda, R) 10 yards to the VA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+15
80.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
79.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 10 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
77.8%
TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY UM substitution infraction 5 yards to the UM44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+1
77.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
77.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
76.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
76.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
77.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry, broken up by Gilbert FriersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
77.8%
Nash Griffin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mark Pope at the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.9%
D'Eriq King sacked by Antonio Clary and Nick Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
75.9%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+19
76.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 52 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 19 yds to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
74.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
73.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for no gain to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
75.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Mark Pope at the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FG
18 plays · 88 yds · 6:1076% → 82%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
75.7%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 14
-5
75.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+28
74.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 28 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
77.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremiah Payton for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+12
77.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
78.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marshall Few, broken up by Nick GrantSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
78.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 12 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
79.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+14
77.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 14 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+7
79.2%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
79.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+6
79.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 6 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
78.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
82.4%
Jose Borregales 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+49
81.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 49 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
78.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-8
78.1%
Tavares Kelly Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+5
81.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
81.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:0584% → 96%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
84.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
83.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+20
82.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 20 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
85.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+26
85.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 26 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
86.5%
King, D pass complete to Pope, M for 14 yards to the VA20, PENALTY UM ineligible downfield on pass (Harley, M) 5 yards to the VA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+16
85.4%
D'Eriq King run for 16 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
86.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+13
85.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 13 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
86.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.4%
King, D pass complete to Pope, M for loss of 5 yards to the VA10 (Taylor, N), PENALTY VA personal foul (Taylor, N) 3 yards to the VA2, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout VIRGINIA, clock 12:04 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
93.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Gurvan Hall Jr.Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
93.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-10
93.6%
Armstrong, B rush for 14 yards to the UM41 (Roche, Q), PENALTY VA holding (Oluwatimi, O) 10 yards to the VA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+11
94.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
93.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by DJ IveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
95.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 1 yd to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
95.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
95.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 2:103% → 18%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+18
96.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 18 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
96.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
96.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+8
96.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+32
96.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 32 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
82.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 35 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 4:5788% → 96%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
87.8%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
87.7%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
87.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.2%
Robert Burns run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
88.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
91.1%
King, D pass incomplete to Wiggins, D, PENALTY VA pass interference (Grant, N) 15 yards to the UM48, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
92.6%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
92.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-1
91.6%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
95.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
91.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 5 yds to the Virg 33 lat. to Wayne Taulapapa for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 33 lat. to Brennan Armstrong for no gain Brennan Armstrong fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Quincy RocheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:27
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 35 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
-14
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.7
TD · Q4 12:04
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout VIRGINIA, clock 12:04 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com