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UVA

Virginia 15 at Virginia Tech 33

VT
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense+31.7Score differential+12.1Garbage-time factor+5.4Pregame prior+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:53: Tre Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +4.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:34: Brian Johnson 47 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +3.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:26: Khalil Herbert run for 76 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +11.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:31: Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +13.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:50: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 23 yds for a TD (Brennan Armstrong pass to Terrell Jana for Two-Point Conversion) — UVA win probability +11.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:12VT 4th & 11 at UVA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:22UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 39, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:10UVA 4th & 7 at VT 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:34VT 4th & 10 at UVA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:41UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:31UVA 4th & 4 at VT 47, down 13
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:52UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:14VT 4th & 10 at UVA 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:31VT 4th & 1 at VT 47, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:47VT 4th & 11 at UVA 13, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:35UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:05VT 4th & 3 at VT 38, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:30VT 4th & 18 at VT 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:01UVA 4th & 12 at VT 18, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:33UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:26VT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:31VT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:50UVA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4860% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
60.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+39
60.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 39 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
60.0%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-8
60.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the Virg 27 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Darrisaw) to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+8
60.3%
Braxton Burmeister run for 8 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
60.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
60.4%
Brian Johnson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3940% → 43%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
60.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Chamarri ConnerSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
60.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
60.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
60.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-1
60.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
59.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
60.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+13
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 13 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
59.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+8
59.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
57.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:4058% → 63%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
58.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
58.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 4 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
57.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
58.9%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 6
50
+1
59.1%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
58.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 5 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
58.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
58.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
57.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Changa Hodge for 11 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
59.4%
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
59.3%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
58.6%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
59.2%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the Virg 21 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Adeeb Atariwa) to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
59.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.2%
Tre Turner run for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3139% → 39%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
61.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
60.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Chamarri ConnerSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
61.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
61.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 37 yds , James Mitchell returns for no gain to the VTech 24 James Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Virg Hunter StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1641% → 39%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
58.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
58.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
59.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
61.0%
Brian Delaney 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:3661% → 67%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
61.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Nick Gallo for 8 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
62.2%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+41
60.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 41 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
63.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-2
63.7%
Changa Hodge run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
64.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
67.2%
Brian Johnson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5334% → 33%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.8%
Shane Simpson run for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
65.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
65.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+3
66.7%
Nash Griffin punt for 40 yds , James Mitchell returns for 3 yds to the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
78.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 76 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5524% → 23%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
75.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 6 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
75.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 7
50
+3
74.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
76.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson, broken up by Divine DeabloSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
77.1%
Nash Griffin punt for 33 yds, fair catch by James Mitchell at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:5379% → 93%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
79.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 14 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
79.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
79.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
79.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
92.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:229% → 9%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
90.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 11 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
90.2%
Brennan Armstrong rush quarterback scramble right for 6 yards to the VT43, out-of-bounds, PENALTY VA holding (Ryan Nelson) 10 yards to the VA41, NO PLAY, clock 00:02.Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+11
91.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds Billy Kemp IV fumbled, recovered by Virg Brennan ArmstrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:089% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-9
90.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 24 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
91.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.3%
Nash Griffin punt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
91.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Divine DeabloSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+8
91.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 50 yds , James Mitchell returns for 8 yds to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 5:2594% → 95%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
94.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
94.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
93.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.7%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+11
93.7%
Jalen Holston run for 11 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
93.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 23 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
94.0%
Tayvion Robinson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 17
OPP 37
0
95.2%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+7
95.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
94.9%
Brian Johnson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:145% → 16%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
95.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the 50 yard line VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Glaser) to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 13
OWN 40
+7
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+12
95.1%
Shane Simpson run for 12 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
95.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+18
95.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 18 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
84.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 23 yds for a TD (Brennan Armstrong pass to Terrell Jana for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:1991% → 91%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
90.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
92.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+11
91.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+34
91.2%
Peter Moore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the VATECH 14 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the Virg 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
90.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 29 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
89.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-27
89.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Dorian Strong return for 27 yds to the Virg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5293% → 96%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
93.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 15 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
93.7%
Braxton Burmeister run for 12 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
93.7%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+2
93.6%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
94.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
96.3%
Brian Johnson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
95.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
95.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 1 yd to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+14
95.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 14 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 13 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-5
94.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Armani Chatman for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-6
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Rayshard Ashby for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
95.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 49 yds, downed at the VTech 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
15 plays · 35 yds · 5:1197% → 99%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
96.5%
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+9
97.1%
Jalen Holston run for 9 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
97.2%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
97.2%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
97.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Drake DeIuliis for 5 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
98.4%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
98.5%
Braxton Burmeister rush right for 5 yards to the VT44 (Nick Jackson), PENALTY VT illegal motion 5 yards to the VT34, NO PLAY, clock 05:15.Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
98.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Tommy Christ) to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
98.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Peter Moore punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Divine Deablo return for no gain to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
98.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+1
98.8%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-5
98.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+29
98.9%
Peter Moore punt for 29 yds, downed at the VATECH 45 VIRGINIA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
99.3%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jarrod Hewitt for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 17
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+33
99.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 33 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
98.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 13 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
98.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+3
98.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 3 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
99.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., broken up by Armani ChatmanSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 12
OPP 18
0
99.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:31
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q2 4:26
Khalil Herbert run for 76 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q3 4:50
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 23 yds for a TD (Brennan Armstrong pass to Terrell Jana for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com