Try the model
UVA

Virginia 23 at Wake Forest 40

WAKE
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:08 · Nash Griffin punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior+6.6Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:04: Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +5.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:49: Wayne Taulapapa run for 15 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +12.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:28: Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +8.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:14: Kenneth Walker III run for 75 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +30.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:38: Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 11UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:08UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:59UVA 4th & 5 at WAKE 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:59WAKE 4th & 20 at WAKE 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56WAKE 4th & 7 at UVA 28, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35WAKE 4th & 14 at UVA 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29UVA 4th & 1 at WAKE 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−1.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26UVA 4th & 4 at WAKE 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:04WAKE 4th & 7 at UVA 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:01WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:26WAKE 4th & 26 at WAKE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−5.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:02UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:53WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:25UVA 4th & 11 at WAKE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−11.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:26WAKE 4th & 9 at UVA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−11.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:28UVA 4th & 12 at WAKE 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−10.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:38UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:01WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:36WAKE 4th & 2 at UVA 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:25UVA 4th & 10 at WAKE 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:04WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 16, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:08WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:16WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56UVA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:49UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:14WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:38WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5257% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 10 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
56.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 8 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
56.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
56.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 22 yds to the WAKEFOREST 30 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
57.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 40 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
57.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 12Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+5
57.7%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
57.7%
Lindell Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
57.8%
Nash Griffin punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:4259% → 60%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+49
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 49 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:1240% → 40%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.7%
Billy Kemp IV run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
59.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
59.6%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 9 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
59.4%
Stone, L pass incomplete to Mitchell, H, PENALTY WF offside (C Basham) 5 yards to the WF44, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
59.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
59.5%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+19
59.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 19 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
59.2%
Iraken Armstead run for 1 yd to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
59.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
59.4%
Lindell Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
60.3%
Brian Delaney 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-8
61.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-9
61.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+4
60.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+47
60.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 47 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:4538% → 43%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
61.7%
Tavares Kelly Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
61.8%
Lindell Stone run for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
61.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
61.4%
Iraken Armstead run for 6 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+8
61.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
60.8%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+22
60.9%
Iraken Armstead run for 22 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
60.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 12 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
60.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 6 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.0%
Iraken Armstead run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 2:2159% → 63%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+32
59.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 32 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
60.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+7
60.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
61.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene, broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
61.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
60.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+19
59.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 19 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
61.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
60.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
59.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene, broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
63.0%
Nick Sciba 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:0337% → 41%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
63.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
62.6%
Stone, L pass incomplete to Davis Jr., L, PENALTY WF pass interference (G Holmes) 15 yards to the WF47, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
61.5%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
61.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
61.5%
Iraken Armstead pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
62.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
60.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 18 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
60.6%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+4
60.6%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
61.5%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
58.8%
Brian Delaney 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2261% → 68%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
60.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+37
61.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 37 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
62.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
62.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 8Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
62.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
62.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
67.8%
Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1034% → 50%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
65.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
64.3%
Iraken Armstead run for 4 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
64.6%
Iraken Armstead pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+15
64.0%
Stone, L pass incomplete to Simpson, S (J Roberson), PENALTY WF personal foul (J Ellison) 15 yards to the WF27, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
62.8%
Iraken Armstead pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
63.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 13 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
62.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
49.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 15 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:4858% → 57%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
58.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
57.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
57.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
57.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:4245% → 47%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
55.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 9 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+19
52.5%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 19 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
51.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-5
51.4%
Stone, L rush for 7 yards to the WF34 (JaC Williams), PENALTY VA illegal formation 5 yards to the WF46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
52.8%
Lindell Stone pass intercepted Keegan Good return for no gain to the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
53.9%
Stone, L pass incomplete to Kemp, B, QB hurry by S Kamara, PENALTY WF pass interference (C Carson) 14 yards to the VA42, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
52.1%
Billy Kemp IV run for 3 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
51.6%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 6 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-10
51.5%
Thompson, K rush for 5 yards to the WF44 (JaC Williams;S Kamara), PENALTY VA holding (Oluwatimi, O) 10 yards to the VA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+3
54.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Shane Simpson for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
55.2%
Nash Griffin punt for 55 yds, downed at the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
57.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Loic Ngassam Nya) to the WFrst 1Similar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+39
57.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 39 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.9%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-8
58.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 24 Sam Hartman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 26
OWN 24
0
55.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon Chapman, broken up by Antonio ClarySimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 26
OWN 24
+11
55.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 35 , Billy Kemp IV returns for 11 yds to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.6%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr., broken up by Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
54.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
51.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Nick AndersenSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+8
54.7%
Nash Griffin punt for 49 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 8 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
57.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
57.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-7
55.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
55.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 42 yds, downed at the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:1549% → 46%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
51.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
52.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 9 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
50.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
50.5%
Shane Simpson run for 16 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
49.0%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Hayden Mitchell, broken up by Caelen CarsonSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
49.5%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
49.0%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-1
49.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
51.1%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Nick AndersenSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
53.8%
Brian Delaney 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 4:5958% → 68%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
57.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
56.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 15 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
59.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-1
61.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-10
59.5%
S Hartman pass complete to D Greene for 42 yards to the VA15 (Grant, N), PENALTY WF holding (L Ngassam Nya) 10 yards to the WF33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+20
55.7%
Sam Hartman run for 20 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
62.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+13
61.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 13 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
63.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
63.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
65.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
65.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
63.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Darrius BrattonSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
67.5%
Nick Sciba 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:5238% → 46%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
61.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 14 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
61.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 16 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-11
59.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 18 VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Grant Misch) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 33
+9
62.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
63.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
54.4%
Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
84.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 75 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:3387% → 95%
Q4 13:11
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+10
86.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 10 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
87.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
93.0%
Lindell Stone sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.5%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.5%
Nash Griffin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
95.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
95.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+12
94.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 22 , Billy Kemp IV returns for 12 yds to the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
94.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 7 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
94.6%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-10
94.7%
Taulapapa, W rush for 7 yards to the VA36 (R Bothroyd), PENALTY VA holding (Glaser, C) 10 yards to the VA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Lindell Stone pass intercepted Caelen Carson return for no gain to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26FG
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4497% → 98%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
96.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-2
96.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+9
96.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
98.2%
Nick Sciba 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 65 yds · 1:113% → 1%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
97.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 15 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
97.0%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 6 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
96.9%
Lindell Stone run for 5 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 19
OPP 47
+6
99.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 6 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+17
99.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 2 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (Zion Keith) to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
98.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+9
98.6%
Iraken Armstead run for 9 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Ja'Cquez WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Shane SimpsonSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.1%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
98.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
98.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+1
98.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 4
OWN 16
-8
99.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:14
Kenneth Walker III run for 75 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
+30.3
TD · Q2 1:49
Wayne Taulapapa run for 15 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
-12.9
FG · Q4 13:28
Brian Delaney 42 yd FG GOOD
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com