Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 41 at Virginia 44

UVA
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+10.5UVA 90.5%Brian Delaney 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 44 · Q4 4:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:07 · Brian Delaney 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior−2.1Home team on offense+21.4Garbage-time factor+13.9Score differential+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:01: Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +20.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:34: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +17.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:51: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +11.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:09: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +13.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:51: Javonte Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +28.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:35UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:28UNC 4th & 18 at UVA 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51UNC 4th & 1 at UVA 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:33UNC 4th & 11 at UVA 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:33UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:31UNC 4th & 18 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:10UVA 4th & 24 at UVA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:20UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%−2.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−11.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:09UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−5.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:07UVA 4th & 12 at UNC 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:02UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.0%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:35UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:05UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:51UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:42UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:45UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:14UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:01UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:34UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:51UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:09UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:51UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%−2.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2578% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.0%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
22.0%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
22.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
22.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 54 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3022% → 25%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
22.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 17 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
22.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
22.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
22.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
22.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
22.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
22.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
22.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
22.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
25.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 23 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:3775% → 74%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
24.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+19
25.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
24.8%
Michael Carter run for 38 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
24.3%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-5
24.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-7
25.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+51
25.9%
Grayson Atkins 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3726% → 28%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.6%
Billy Kemp IV run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
28.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 71 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 7:1871% → 70%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
28.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
28.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
29.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kyler McMichael, PENALTY VA pass interference (De'Vante Cross) 15 yards to the NC35, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
28.4%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
27.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
27.9%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
27.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 7 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+15
27.6%
Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
27.4%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
27.4%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
27.7%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+4
28.1%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-7
29.7%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the Virg 7 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+1
30.0%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+3
30.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
30.4%
Grayson Atkins 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
32.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
31.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Nash Griffin punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
25.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 76 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5726% → 37%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
27.3%
Shane Simpson run for 11 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
27.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
28.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Shane Simpson, PENALTY NC pass interference (Tomon Fox) 15 yards to the NC30, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
28.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+11
28.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
28.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
28.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Don ChapmanSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
37.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 18 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1468% → 66%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
31.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 17 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
30.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 22 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
29.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-7
29.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 18
OPP 34
0
31.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 18
OPP 34
+52
34.2%
Grayson Atkins 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 11 yds · 3:2137% → 38%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
37.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
38.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
37.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Tomon Fox and Raymond Vohasek for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 34 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trey Morrison) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
39.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 20
OWN 39
0
37.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+21
37.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 21 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
39.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
38.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Billy Kemp IV) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-9
37.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Tomari Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 24
OWN 46
0
38.1%
Nash Griffin punt for 33 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the NCaro 20 Rontavius Groves fumbled, recovered by Virg Tucker FinkelstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:4243% → 55%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
43.2%
Shane Simpson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+13
43.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 13 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:0048% → 54%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
52.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+36
52.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 36 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
46.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 29 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
46.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, PENALTY VA pass interference (Antonio Clary) 3 yards to the VA2, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
46.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 19 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Javonte WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5951% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.4%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
51.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
52.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+16
53.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 16 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
54.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
53.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 16 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
54.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+6
54.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
54.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+9
54.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, PENALTY NC pass interference (Cam'Ron Kelly) 9 yards to the NC2, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
54.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
71.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 9 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
68.9%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
70.1%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-9
69.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 30 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by Virg Mandy Alonso , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:4677% → 93%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
77.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
77.1%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
76.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
75.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:438% → 21%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.7%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
91.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
91.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
91.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
91.3%
Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
90.4%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
90.1%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+9
91.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 9 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
90.1%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Virg 15 Javonte Williams fumbled, forced by Nick Jackson,Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+5
90.2%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
79.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:5188% → 90%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+29
88.2%
Shane Simpson run for 29 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Jeremiah Gemmel return for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:4616% → 32%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
83.7%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
83.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Nick GrantSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+30
83.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 30 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
81.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Patrice ReneSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
81.9%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
68.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19FG
17 plays · 58 yds · 9:0278% → 91%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
78.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Don Chapman) to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
80.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
80.7%
Shane Simpson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
79.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
78.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
80.8%
Shane Simpson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
81.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
81.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, OF (Ladaeson Hollins) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+4
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
79.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
81.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
81.2%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-7
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Don Chapman for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+35
90.5%
Brian Delaney 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:169% → 41%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
91.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+47
89.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 47 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
87.5%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.3%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21END OF GAME
11 plays · 9 yds · 1:3782% → 90%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
82.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
83.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
86.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for no gain to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
86.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
88.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-1
91.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-1
89.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:51
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-28.2
TD · Q3 10:01
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q3 5:34
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com