Virginia

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense0.009th
  Defense+0.0768th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.3%32nd
  Defense40.9%62nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.115th
  Defense+1.0796th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0642nd
  Defense+0.0176th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense0.004th
  Defense+0.1665th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.4%21st
  Defense46.0%65th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.7%67th
  Defense28.9%65th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2372nd
  Defense3.2720th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%67th
  Defense10.3%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense22.2%4th
  Defense15.1%36th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Virginia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   RICH
2. L
   ILL
3. W
   ODU
4. L
   SYR
5. L
   DUKE
6. L
   LOU
7. W
   GT
8. L
   MIA
9. L
   UNC
10. L
    PITT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Virginia.

Players, 2022

1. Brennan ArmstrongQB364 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 51st of 234 QBs
   1.38WAR0.66 to 2.15
2. Dontayvion WicksWR54 plays · +0.233 pts/play · 38th of 455 WRs
   0.24WAR0.12 to 0.36
3. Keytaon ThompsonWR69 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 129th of 455 WRs
   0.14WAR0.04 to 0.26
4. Perris JonesRB58 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 248th of 384 RBs
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.15
5. Mike HollinsRB51 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 266th of 384 RBs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.14
6. Daniel SparksP44 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 50th of 102 punters
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.14
7. Sackett Wood Jr.TE14 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 90th of 214 TEs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
8. Billy Kemp IVWR19 plays · +0.091 pts/play · 373rd of 455 WRs
   0.03WAR0.00 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Virginia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  62662659th of 129Roster talent: 626, 59th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19019048th of 129Recruiting: 190, 48th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  80%80%18th of 128Returning production: 80%, 18th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −9.0−9.093rd of 129SP+ rating: −9.0, 93rd of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Virginia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ODUQ3 2:51 4th & 1 at UVA 49, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. vs MIAQ4 12:11 4th & 4 at MIA 6, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. vs MIAQ2 1:45 4th & 1 at UVA 26, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. at GTQ4 5:18 4th & 5 at GT 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. vs LOUQ2 6:24 4th & 1 at UVA 34, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. at SYRQ4 14:05 4th & 2 at UVA 43, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at GTQ3 12:33 4th & 3 at GT 47, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. at ILLQ2 3:15 4th & 2 at UVA 36, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

122nd of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Virginia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   RICH
2. L

   ILL
3. W

   ODU
4. L

   SYR
5. L

   DUKE
6. L

   LOU
7. W

   GT
8. L

   MIA
9. L

   UNC
10. L

    PITT

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Virginia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.99
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts−0.01
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.27

Game by game

• RICHW 34-17 vs RICH93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +11
• ILLL 3-24 at ILL41% → 87%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +42, Clock +4
• ODUW 16-14 vs ODU75% → 96%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +26
• SYRL 20-22 at SYR28% → 6%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −2
• DUKEL 17-38 at DUKE49% → 0%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −45
• LOUL 17-34 vs LOU54% → 1%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −54, Clock −2
• GTW 16-9 at GT43% → 87%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• MIAL 12-14 vs MIA41% → 43%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +2: Scoreboard −14, Clock −3
• UNCL 28-31 vs UNC32% → 5%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −39, Clock −2
• PITTL 7-37 vs PITT43% → 0%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −46, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Virginia's side.

Closest call

UVA 31-30 WAKE (2024) - Virginia dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.