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UVA

Virginia 3 at Illinois 24

ILL
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:25 · Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 3 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−4.8Pregame prior+5.7Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 3:32: Caleb Griffin 23 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +4.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:23: Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks — UVA win probability +11.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q4 6:27: Hugh Robertson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 24 — UVA win probability +11.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:19: PENALTY ILL False Start 1 yard from ILL02 to ILL01. NO PLAY. — ILL win probability +12.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:40: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 8 yds to the Illin 34 — UVA win probability +11.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
  1. Q1 13:46UVA 4th & 7 at ILL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08UVA 4th & 2 at ILL 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 29, down 6
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28UVA 4th & 26 at UVA 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:38ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:31UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:39UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:16UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:25UVA 4th & 3 at ILL 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:39UVA 4th & 10 at ILL 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:16ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:15UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 36, up 6
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:58UVA 4th & 2 at ILL 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:01UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:01ILL 4th & 2 at UVA 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−3.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:27ILL 4th & 7 at UVA 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−11.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:11UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:32ILL 4th & 5 at UVA 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−13.8
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:20UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−7.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:23ILL 4th & 2 at UVA 27, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%−2.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−13.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:57UVA 4th & 6 at ILL 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−1.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:27ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:40ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 9, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−6.0
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:56UVA 4th & 5 at ILL 5, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−3.8
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2459% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.8%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
58.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brian Hightower) to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5041% → 41%
Q1 14:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
58.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
58.8%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
58.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
58.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:5759% → 59%
Q1 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
58.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+11
58.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
58.8%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
58.9%
Chase Brown run for 12 yds to the Illin 32 Chase Brown fumbled, recovered by Virg Langston LongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4141% → 42%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
58.6%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 14
OPP 36
-5
58.7%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Devine,Derek) 5 yards from ILL36 to ILL41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 19
OPP 41
0
58.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 19
OPP 41
+17
58.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 17 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
58.4%
Brendan Farrell 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4358% → 58%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.2%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
58.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
58.1%
Tommy DeVito run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
57.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:5142% → 42%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
57.7%
run for 27 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 37
OWN 5
+16
57.6%
Perris Jones run for 16 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 21
OWN 21
-5
58.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 26
OWN 16
0
57.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5058% → 56%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
57.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+3
57.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
57.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
56.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain for a TD Billy Kemp IV fumbled, recovered by Illin Matthew Bailey for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0743% → 44%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.9%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
56.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Leech,Jonathan) 5 yards from UVA28 to UVA23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
57.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
57.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+20
56.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 54 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 20 yds to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:5657% → 58%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
57.3%
Chase Brown run for 15 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
57.7%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+39
57.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 39 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5645% → 45%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
55.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+10
55.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 10 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:4357% → 57%
Q1 1:39
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-5
56.5%
PENALTY ILL False Start 5 yards from ILL40 to ILL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
55.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 9 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-5
56.5%
PENALTY ILL False Start 5 yards from ILL40 to ILL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
56.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Antonio Clary) to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+43
56.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 43 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 2 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3546% → 47%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
54.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 12 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.7%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
53.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
52.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:5154% → 55%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
53.9%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+11
53.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
54.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 12 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+36
54.4%
Chase Brown run for 36 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
57.0%
Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
57.0%
Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+6
56.0%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
55.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 17 yds Pat Bryant fumbled, recovered by Virg Fentrell Cypress IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4649% → 52%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+62
51.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 62 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
48.4%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
48.3%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
48.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+3
50.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 3 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
48.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
48.4%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
48.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
47.6%
Brendan Farrell 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2350% → 48%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
50.0%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
49.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Jonah MorrisSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+1
48.9%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
47.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0153% → 54%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
46.9%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
46.2%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
46.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+24
46.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 46 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 24 yds to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4551% → 51%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
50.7%
Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.7%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-7
50.9%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Kam Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 45 Tommy DeVito fumbled, recovered by Virg Jahmeer Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3257% → 58%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
43.0%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
43.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Xavier Brown for 7 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
43.2%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
42.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5847% → 47%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.6%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-7
47.4%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Chico Bennett Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5956% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
44.0%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
44.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass complete short left to Hollins,Mike for 0 yards to the UVA28 PENALTY UVA Holding (Taylor,Logan) 10 yards from UVA28 to UVA18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
46.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 8 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
45.4%
Brendan Farrell punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:3450% → 46%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
50.0%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
50.1%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
49.7%
Tommy DeVito run for 4 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
48.0%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
51.5%
Tommy DeVito run for 6 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+13
51.5%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
51.5%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
51.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
49.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Michael MarcheseSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
46.0%
Caleb Griffin 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1660% → 58%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.5%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
40.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
40.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+3
41.8%
Brendan Farrell punt for 32 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3947% → 43%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
47.0%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
48.0%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
48.2%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
48.2%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+8
47.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 8 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
49.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 24 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
47.8%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
43.1%
Caleb Griffin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:1264% → 63%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
36.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
37.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-11
38.1%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
37.2%
Brendan Farrell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:5745% → 41%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
44.5%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
45.0%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+9
44.3%
Reggie Love III run for 9 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
46.8%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
46.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
44.5%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
41.0%
Caleb Griffin 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:2670% → 71%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
29.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
30.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete short left to Wicks,Dontayvion PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Barnes,Tarique) 15 yards from UVA27 to UVA42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
27.7%
Mike Hollins run for 15 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
26.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
26.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
26.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-5
29.3%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Furnish,Ty) 5 yards from ILL34 to ILL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
28.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 4:3037% → 28%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
37.0%
Shotgun Love III,Reggie rush right for 0 yards to the ILL24, End Of Play PENALTY ILL Illegal Block in Back (Adams,Isaiah) 10 yards from ILL24 to ILL14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+2
36.5%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+18
36.3%
Tommy DeVito run for 18 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
36.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 5 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.6%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
40.2%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-9
38.9%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
27.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28INT
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0879% → 86%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
21.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 12 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
20.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+18
22.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 18 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
18.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 31 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
17.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
14.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Devon Witherspoon) to the Illin 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3927% → 23%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
26.5%
PENALTY ILL False Start 1 yard from ILL02 to ILL01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
26.5%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Marchese,Michael). NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+3
26.5%
Tommy DeVito run for 3 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
25.8%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+1
25.4%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
23.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 1:4488% → 93%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
11.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 8 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-12
11.3%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 12 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+10
8.2%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jartavius Martin) to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
7.4%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+31
7.4%
Jay Woolfolk run for 31 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
7.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Devon Witherspoon) to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
7.0%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.1%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5616% → 13%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
15.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 3
-1
12.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+87.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:19
PENALTY ILL False Start 1 yard from ILL02 to ILL01. NO PLAY.
+12.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:40
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 8 yds to the Illin 34
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com