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PITT

Pittsburgh 37 at Virginia 7

UVA
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:17 · Daniel Sparks punt for 61 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense−20.4Score differential−12.8Garbage-time factor−1.7Pregame prior−5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:04: Israel Abanikanda 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +4.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:33: Bub Means 31 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +6.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:21: Ben Sauls 25 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +0.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:48: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:21: Ben Sauls 27 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:00UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:17UVA 4th & 18 at UVA 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:45UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 39, down 28
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:50UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 35, down 28
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:01PITT 4th & 9 at UVA 36, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:20UVA 4th & 21 at PITT 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08PITT 4th & 9 at UVA 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:20UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 5, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:21PITT 4th & 5 at UVA 7, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:12UVA 4th & 1 at PITT 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:39PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:09UVA 4th & 30 at UVA 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:48PITT 4th & 1 at UVA 26, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:21PITT 4th & 6 at UVA 9, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:43UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 41, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:23PITT 4th & 1 at UVA 21, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:56UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:55PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 14:44PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:04PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:33PITT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:48UVA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-29
42.6%
M.J. Devonshire 29 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-39
42.5%
Marquis Williams 39 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4443% → 41%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
42.5%
PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from UVA36 to UVA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
42.5%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
42.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
42.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+20
41.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 44 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 20 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:5659% → 66%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
41.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
41.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+37
41.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 37 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
41.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
41.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+8
41.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.5%
Israel Abanikanda 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:4735% → 33%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.4%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
35.4%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
35.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 5 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
35.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
35.4%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-9
35.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by John Morgan III for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+6
32.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 38 , M.J. Devonshire returns for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:4469% → 75%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
31.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
31.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+17
31.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 17 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
31.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
31.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
31.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
31.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+31
25.0%
Bub Means 31 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4824% → 23%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.4%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.2%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
24.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Judson Tallandier II for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+3
22.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5478% → 78%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.5%
run for 7 yds to the Pitt 18 fumbled, recovered by Pitt Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-8
22.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Slovis,Kedon pass complete deep right to Abanikanda,Israel for 16 yards to the PITT34 (Long,Langston) PENALTY PITT Holding (Wayne,Jared) 8 yards from PITT18 to PITT10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+4
22.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+8
22.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 8 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
22.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 48 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4920% → 17%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
19.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
19.3%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
19.5%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
17.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:3083% → 85%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
17.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
16.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
17.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for 9 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
17.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Slovis,Kedon pass complete short right to Flemister,C'Bo for 6 yards to the PITT44 (Jackson,James) PENALTY PITT Holding 10 yards from PITT38 to PITT28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+6
17.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+7
17.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 7 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
17.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
15.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5714% → 11%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
13.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
13.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
11.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+31
10.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 60 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 31 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4988% → 89%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
12.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
12.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
11.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
11.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Slovis,Kedon pass complete short right to Abanikanda,Israel for 1 yard to the UVA36, out of bounds at UVA36 PENALTY PITT Holding (Johnson,Karter) 10 yards from UVA37 to UVA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+8
11.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 8 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+3
11.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
11.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+54
11.1%
Ben Sauls 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:4112% → 7%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
11.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
50
-8
12.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by John Morgan III for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+9
10.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 9 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+15
11.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
13.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Malachi Fields for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Holding (A.J. Woods) to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
13.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 10 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
13.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
12.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-13
11.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 21
OPP 25
+43
7.3%
Will Bettridge 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.7%
K. Slovis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:5293% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
6.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
5.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
6.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
6.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
6.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
5.8%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:485% → 4%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
5.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 6 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-7
4.7%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 11
OWN 9
-4
4.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 15
OWN 5
+1
3.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 39 , M.J. Devonshire returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:5996% → 96%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
4.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
4.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
4.2%
PENALTY PITT False Start (Goncalves,Matt) 5 yards from PITT45 to PITT40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+22
4.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 22 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
4.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
4.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+23
4.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 23 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
4.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
4.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+1
4.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
3.8%
Ben Sauls 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:333% → 6%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
2.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 20 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
2.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 6 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
2.9%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
2.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 12 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
3.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
3.0%
PENALTY PITT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UVA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
3.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
3.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+15
1.2%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Bangally Kamara) to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
5.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0996% → 97%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
3.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
3.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
3.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:304% → 3%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
4.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
4.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 12 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
3.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 15 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 45
-5
3.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 30
OWN 40
0
3.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 30
OWN 40
+14
2.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 14 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:4897% → 100%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
2.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
2.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
2.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 13 yds to the VIRGINIA 39 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gavin Bartholomew) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
2.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
2.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
2.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Calijah KanceySimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
2.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
1.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
1.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+4
1.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
1.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
1.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
1.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
0.3%
Ben Sauls 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
0.2%
Mike Hollins run for 9 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 4 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
0.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 10 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bub Means) to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 7 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+2
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+39
0.1%
Ben Sauls 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dillon TennysonSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 63 yds , Vincent Davis returns for 13 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 8 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.1%
N. Patti takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:33
Bub Means 31 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Ben Sauls Kick)
-6.5
TD · Q3 3:48
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q1 8:04
Israel Abanikanda 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com