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LOU

Louisville 34 at Virginia 17

UVA
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by Louisville at UVA28 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:51: Brock Domann run for 44 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +9.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:35: Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 32 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +13.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:58: Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +16.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 0:54: Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +17.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:03: Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +15.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:06LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:45UVA 4th & 13 at LOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:56LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19LOU 4th & 6 at UVA 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:15UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:15UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:51LOU 4th & 2 at UVA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:24UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00LOU 4th & 2 at UVA 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:44UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−5.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:35UVA 4th & 5 at LOU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:39LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:11UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−4.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:11UVA 4th & 1 at LOU 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−1.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:42UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:51LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:35LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:58UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:54LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:03LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5446% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
54.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
54.5%
Brock Domann run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
54.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 46 yds , Ethan Davies returns for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2155% → 56%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
54.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
54.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
54.9%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+25
54.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 25 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
55.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+1
55.0%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
54.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
55.5%
Will Bettridge 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Brock Domann pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:5556% → 59%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
55.8%
Xavier Brown run for 7 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
56.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
50
-5
56.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+16
55.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 16 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
56.2%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+40
58.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 40 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3542% → 40%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.3%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:0760% → 62%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.3%
Perris Jones run for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 15 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
60.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 16 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
60.8%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+10
62.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the Lvile 18 Brennan Armstrong fumbled, recovered by Lvile Dezmond TellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0440% → 38%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
60.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
60.5%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+15
60.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Domann,Brock pass incomplete short left to Hudson,Tyler PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Butler,Kameron) 15 yards from LOU21 to LOU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
60.0%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
59.8%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
59.7%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
61.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0762% → 61%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.8%
Perris Jones run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
61.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 7 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-5
61.3%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Wilson,Sean) 5 yards from UVA27 to UVA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+1
61.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 46 yds , Braden Smith returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:3038% → 37%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
61.8%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
50
+5
60.9%
Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
60.9%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
61.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
60.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
62.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 6 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
62.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.3%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+17
62.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 17 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
62.2%
Brock Domann run for 1 yd to the Virg 6Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.2%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.9%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
62.7%
James Turner 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0464% → 63%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Dezmond Tell for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
63.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
63.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 39 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
63.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 39 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:2437% → 47%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.6%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
63.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
62.7%
Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+44
53.2%
Brock Domann run for 44 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2757% → 57%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.7%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
57.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
56.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:5146% → 49%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
54.0%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 19 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
52.0%
Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
51.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
51.4%
Brock Domann pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2960% → 60%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
50
0
60.2%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
50
+6
59.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:0446% → 54%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
53.6%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
52.3%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+16
53.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 16 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
51.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-10
51.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Domann,Brock pass incomplete short left PENALTY LOU Holding (Reid,Trevor) 10 yards from UVA43 to LOU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+6
53.2%
Brock Domann pass complete to Maurice Turner for 6 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+18
52.8%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 18 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
50.3%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 25 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
50.3%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.9%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.0%
Brock Domann run for no gain to the Virg 2Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
45.8%
James Turner 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 2:1650% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
50.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 6 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-4
50.3%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-4
48.7%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 11
-5
48.2%
PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from UVA11 to UVA06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 6
-3
47.8%
PENALTY UVA Illegal Snap (Livingston,Aidan) 3 yards from UVA06 to UVA03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 20
OWN 3
0
46.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 55 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:0954% → 68%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
46.0%
Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
46.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
46.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 13 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
45.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+32
31.6%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 32 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3733% → 55%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
34.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 13 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
35.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 14 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
36.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
36.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
35.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Perris Jones for 5 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+11
34.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 11 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
37.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete short left to Davis Jr.,Lavel PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (Minkins,Josh) 15 yards from LOU26 to LOU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
54.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1954% → 52%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
46.0%
Brock Domann pass incomplete to Jaelin CarterSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , Ethan Davies returns for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0848% → 49%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
48.3%
PENALTY LOU Targeting (Dallas,Marvin) 15 yards from UVA20 to UVA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:3757% → 78%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
43.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
42.4%
Brock Domann run for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+23
42.3%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 23 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
40.7%
Trevion Cooley run for 8 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+2
40.7%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
40.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jordan,Jawhar rush left for 3 yards gain to the UVA07 (Johnson,Anthony) PENALTY LOU Holding (Reid,Trevor) 10 yards from UVA10 to UVA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
39.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 9 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
39.6%
PENALTY LOU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UVA11 to UVA16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+14
39.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Domann,Brock pass incomplete short middle to Hudson,Tyler PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Jackson,James) 14 yards from UVA16 to UVA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.1%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4326% → 26%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
27.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
27.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
28.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 15 yds to the VIRGINIA 36 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Xavier Brown) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
28.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
27.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
29.3%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-11
25.6%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:0878% → 95%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
21.7%
Maurice Turner run for 9 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
21.4%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
21.1%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 28 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
21.0%
PENALTY UVA Offside (Agunloye,Olasunkonmi) 4 yards from UVA07 to UVA03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
20.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:528% → 7%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
7.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+27
7.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 27 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
8.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 22 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
9.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 5 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-9
9.7%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+13
8.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 13 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
7.1%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25END OF GAME
15 plays · 67 yds · 8:1196% → 99%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
4.4%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+3
4.4%
Brock Domann run for 3 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+9
4.5%
Trevion Cooley run for 9 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
4.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+22
4.3%
Brock Domann pass complete to Duane Martin for 22 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
3.9%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
3.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+9
2.1%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 9 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
2.0%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
2.0%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+9
1.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 9 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
1.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-2
1.0%
Kneel down by Louisville at UVA28 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:54
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q3 6:58
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q4 11:03
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
-15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com