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RICH

Richmond 17 at Virginia 34

UVA
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadRICH aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreRICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:22 · Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+20.1Home team on offense+14.3Score differential+3.1Garbage-time factor+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:27: Savon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Larson KICK) — RICH win probability +2.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: RICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:00: Brennan Armstrong run for 64 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK) — UVA win probability +2.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:10: Mike Hollins 3 Yd Run (Brendan Farrell Kick) — UVA win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:51: Reece Udinski pass complete to Savon Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Larson KICK) — RICH win probability +4.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: RICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:51: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Perris Jones for 11 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell PAT MISSED) — UVA win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3RICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:30RICH 4th & 3 at RICH 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:07UVA 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32RICH 4th & 6 at RICH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:18RICH 4th & 4 at RICH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:36RICH 4th & 4 at UVA 28, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:22RICH 4th & 2 at UVA 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:22RICH 4th & 2 at UVA 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:03RICH 4th & 3 at UVA 30, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:22UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:46RICH 4th & 1 at UVA 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:50RICH 4th & 7 at RICH 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:46UVA 4th & 16 at RICH 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55RICH 4th & 4 at RICH 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:27RICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:05UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:00UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:10UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:51RICH Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:51UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:267% → 7%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
93.3%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Savon SmithSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
93.3%
Aaron Dykes run for 2 yds to the Richm 20Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+5
93.3%
Reece Udinski run for 5 yds to the Richm 25Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Aaron Trusler punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2393% → 92%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 13 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 4 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
93.1%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 3
50
0
92.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 3TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:408% → 11%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.4%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 5 yds to the Richm 25Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
92.4%
Reece Udinski sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Richm 22Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
92.4%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 9 yds to the Richm 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
92.4%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Leroy Henley for 6 yds to the Richm 37Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+9
92.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Aaron Dykes for 9 yds to the Richm 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
92.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Leroy Henley for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
50
+10
92.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jakob Herres for 10 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
92.3%
Aaron Dykes run for 20 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
92.2%
Reece Udinski run for 3 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+9
92.2%
Savon Smith run for 9 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.5%
Savon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3190% → 91%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.9%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Flores,John Paul) 5 yards from UVA25 to UVA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
89.9%
RICHMOND Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Gio Seigler) to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
91.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 56 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:249% → 10%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.8%
Savon Smith run for 17 yds to the Richm 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
90.6%
Savon Smith run for 4 yds to the Richm 46Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Savon Smith run for no gain to the Richm 46Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Jakob HerresSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
90.4%
Aaron Trusler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 4:2790% → 91%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
90.4%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+9
90.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
90.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 12 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
90.6%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
90.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+14
90.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 14 yds to the Richm 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
90.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete short left to Davis Jr.,Lavel PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Flores,John Paul) 15 yards from RICH46 to UVA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 25
OWN 39
0
90.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+15
90.5%
RICHMOND Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Richm 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
90.8%
Perris Jones run for 14 yds to the Richm 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
90.9%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the Richm 22Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
90.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+7
90.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 7 yds to the Richm 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.4%
Perris Jones run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:429% → 9%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.8%
Aaron Dykes run for 2 yds to the Richm 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
90.7%
Aaron Dykes run for 4 yds to the Richm 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
90.8%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Dante BlackSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.8%
Aaron Trusler punt for 44 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1891% → 93%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.8%
Perris Jones run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.1%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
93.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 64 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 9FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:248% → 9%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.5%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jakob Herres for 6 yds to the Richm 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
92.4%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Leroy Henley for 5 yds to the Richm 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
92.4%
Savon Smith run for 2 yds to the Richm 38Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
92.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Savon Smith for 8 yds to the Richm 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.3%
Savon Smith run for 3 yds to the Richm 49Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
92.2%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+17
92.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 17 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
91.9%
Aaron Dykes run for 5 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
91.8%
Aaron Dykes run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
92.1%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Jakob HerresSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
90.9%
Jake Larson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:2692% → 94%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
91.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 10 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
91.9%
Perris Jones run for 17 yds to the Richm 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
92.0%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the Richm 40Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+14
92.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 14 yds to the Richm 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
92.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 2 yds to the Richm 24Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+10
91.8%
RICHMOND Penalty, Defensive Holding (Bryson Parker) to the Richm 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
92.0%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Richm 10Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
92.0%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Richm 6Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
91.8%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Richm 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.0%
Perris Jones run for no gain to the Richm 3Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.4%
Mike Hollins 3 Yd Run (Brendan Farrell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:486% → 6%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.9%
Savon Smith run for 15 yds to the Richm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
93.6%
Savon Smith run for 9 yds to the Richm 49Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+9
93.2%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 9 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
93.3%
Savon Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+6
93.6%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 6 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+3
93.4%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Leroy Henley for 3 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
93.6%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
93.6%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2295% → 95%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.5%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
94.6%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
94.4%
Perris Jones run for 6 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.7%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the Richm 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0294% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
94.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Perris rush right for 7 yards gain to the UVA39 (O'Connor,Philip) PENALTY UVA Holding (Flores,John Paul) 10 yards from UVA32 to UVA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
95.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 12 yds Dontayvion Wicks fumbled, forced by Philip O'Connor, recovered by Richm Aaron BanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 14TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:077% → 11%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
93.5%
Aaron Dykes run for 5 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+7
93.3%
Aaron Dykes run for 7 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
93.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 4 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
93.3%
Aaron Dykes run for 1 yd to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+7
93.7%
Aaron Dykes run for 7 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.3%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Jasiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
93.3%
Savon Smith run for 5 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.1%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Savon Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4491% → 91%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
91.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
91.0%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
90.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0411% → 10%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
89.2%
Aaron Dykes run for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
88.6%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+5
89.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
89.9%
Jake Larson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4191% → 91%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
91.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 12 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-10
92.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hollins,Mike rush left for 0 yards to the UVA42 (Fitz,Matei; Wheeler,Tristan) PENALTY UVA Holding (Boley,McKale) 10 yards from UVA42 to UVA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
91.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+15
91.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
91.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:368% → 9%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
91.9%
Savon Smith run for 3 yds to the Richm 6Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+13
92.0%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jakob Herres for 13 yds to the Richm 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.4%
Reece Udinski run for 4 yds to the Richm 23Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
91.2%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Savon Smith for 1 yd to the Richm 24Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+5
92.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Udinski,Reece pass intercepted by Ahern,Josh at RICH34 Ahern,Josh return 0 yards to the RICH30, out of bounds at RICH30 PENALTY UVA Illegal Substitution (Akere,Paul) 5 yards from RICH24 to RICH29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
91.4%
Savon Smith run for 14 yds to the Richm 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
91.0%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 5 yds to the Richm 48Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
90.6%
Aaron Dykes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 3
50
+5
90.5%
Aaron Dykes run for 5 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 3 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
90.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Leroy Henley for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
90.2%
Aaron Dykes run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
91.2%
Aaron Dykes run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0993% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
93.0%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
93.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 4 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
93.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 25 yds to the Richm 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
93.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Richm 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+8
93.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Richm 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
93.5%
Perris Jones run for 9 yds to the Richm 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+4
93.5%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the Richm 11Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
97.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Perris Jones for 11 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.9%
Aaron Dykes run for 10 yds to the Richm 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.7%
Aaron Dykes run for 3 yds to the Richm 38Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Braxton HughesSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Aaron DykesSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+1
97.3%
Aaron Trusler punt for 41 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 1 yd to the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:0498% → 98%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete short right to Davis Jr.,Lavel PENALTY RICH Pass Interference (Hall,Aamir) 15 yards from UVA22 to UVA37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
97.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 11 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
97.8%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the Richm 46Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
97.9%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Richm 47Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+7
97.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 7 yds to the Richm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
97.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Richm 44Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+3
97.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Perris Jones for 3 yds to the Richm 41Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 11
OPP 41
-5
97.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Wicks,Dontayvion) 5 yards from RICH41 to RICH46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:513% → 2%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
97.3%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Savon Smith for 12 yds to the Richm 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
97.1%
Reece Udinski sacked by Josh Ahern for a loss of 3 yards to the Richm 29Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
97.3%
Reece Udinski pass incomplete to Aaron DykesSimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+9
97.4%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Jasiah Williams for 9 yds to the Richm 38Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
98.0%
Aaron Trusler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 49 yds · 4:5598% → 99%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
98.3%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+14
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 14 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
98.4%
Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+9
98.5%
Xavier Brown run for 9 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
98.5%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the Richm 49Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+12
98.5%
Xavier Brown run for 12 yds to the Richm 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
98.5%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the Richm 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
99.1%
Jay Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Richm 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:51
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Perris Jones for 11 yds for a TD, (Brendan Farrell PAT MISSED)
+4.4
TD · Q3 10:51
Reece Udinski pass complete to Savon Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Larson KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q1 6:27
Savon Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Larson KICK)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com