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UVA

Virginia 17 at Duke 38

DUKE
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:39 · Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 39 , Jalon Calhoun returns for 43 yds to the Virg 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense+20.9Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Pregame prior+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:13: Riley Leonard 2 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick) — DUKE win probability +8.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:25: Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick) — DUKE win probability +13.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:03: Jaquez Moore 59 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick) — DUKE win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:30: Brennan Armstrong 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick) — UVA win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:00: Charlie Ham 34 Yd Field Goal — DUKE win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:37DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17UVA 4th & 3 at DUKE 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:45UVA 4th & 10 at DUKE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at UVA 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:50DUKE 4th & 5 at UVA 42, up 15
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:34UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 45, down 15
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.8
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:37UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:39UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:20DUKE 4th & 7 at UVA 25, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:08UVA 4th & 16 at DUKE 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:00DUKE 4th & 6 at UVA 17, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:13DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:25DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:13DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:03DUKE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:30UVA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
16 plays · 7 yds · 2:1751% → 52%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
51.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 7 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
51.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
51.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+4
51.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
51.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2047% → 46%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
52.5%
Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
52.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
52.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+7
52.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 7 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
52.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
52.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
52.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
54.2%
Brennan Armstrong punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 2:1555% → 57%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
54.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 6 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+17
54.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 17 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.8%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
56.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalon Calhoun) to the Virg 3Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
56.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalon Calhoun) to the Virg 0 (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:0045% → 43%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
55.3%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
55.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 4 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
55.0%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
54.8%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+5
55.5%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
55.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
57.3%
punt for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:3259% → 67%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
58.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
58.9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
58.6%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
58.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+17
58.8%
Riley Leonard run for 17 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
59.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
59.1%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
67.4%
Riley Leonard 2 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:3568% → 82%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
67.8%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
67.8%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
67.4%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+8
67.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
68.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
67.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 6 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+4
67.9%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.0%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.7%
Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:4474% → 78%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
73.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+10
73.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 10 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
73.6%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+11
73.6%
Riley Leonard run for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
74.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
74.5%
pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
73.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
74.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 5 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
74.7%
pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
74.1%
pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
77.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
71.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:0926% → 27%
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
73.6%
Perris Jones 11 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
73.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:5079% → 79%
Q2 0:57
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+3
78.9%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+8
78.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
78.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 13:3721% → 11%
Q3 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
78.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks, broken up by Ja'Mion FranklinSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
89.3%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+5
89.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 11:1393% → 98%
Q3 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Riley Leonard 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
97.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 13 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
97.7%
Riley Leonard run for 14 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
97.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Anthony Johnson) to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
97.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 23 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
97.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 10:398% → 6%
Q3 10:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+43
92.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 39 , Jalon Calhoun returns for 43 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson, broken up by Michael ReeseSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Perris Jones, broken up by DeWayne CarterSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 6:2092% → 95%
Q3 6:20
4TH & 7
OPP 25
-12
91.6%
Jackson Hubbard run for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 37 Jackson Hubbard fumbled, recovered by Duke Charlie HamSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
95.6%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
95.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-1
95.5%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+3
95.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
95.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
95.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli Pancol, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+6
95.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 1:087% → 7%
Q3 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
92.8%
Will Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
93.6%
Perris Jones run for 12 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
93.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-14
93.1%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 44 VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Logan Taylor) to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+19
94.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 19 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
93.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 12 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
92.5%
Mike Hollins run for 15 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
92.5%
Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
92.5%
pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+9
93.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chandler Rivers) to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.5%
pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.5%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
93.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:5795% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
95.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+5
95.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
95.3%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.2%
Jaquez Moore 59 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.5%
Brennan Armstrong 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FG
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:4099% → 100%
Q4 3:00
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
99.3%
Charlie Ham 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+8
99.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19INT
1 play · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
50
0
99.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20Uncategorized
1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
99.5%
Terry Moore run for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:25
Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)
+13.8
TD · Q1 0:13
Riley Leonard 2 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q4 14:03
Jaquez Moore 59 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com