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UNC

North Carolina 31 at Virginia 28

UVA
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:04 · Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−5.8Home team on offense−4.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:05: Elijah Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +13.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:49: Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +18.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:13: Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +19.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:19: Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 22 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +18.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:24: Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +39.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:37UNC 4th & 8 at UVA 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:32UVA 4th & 5 at UNC 32, up 4
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:21UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:15UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:08UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−5.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:04UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:40UNC 4th & 1 at UVA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−4.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−16.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:18UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 22, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:45UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:35UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:54UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:23UNC 4th & 3 at UVA 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:48UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:47UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:04UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:05UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:49UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:13UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:19UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:24UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4232% → 35%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
31.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
32.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 5 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
32.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
32.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
32.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+20
32.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 20 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
33.2%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+15
33.6%
Mike Hollins run for 15 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:5865% → 64%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.9%
Elijah Green run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
34.7%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
35.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
35.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
35.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 15 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
35.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
35.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
35.8%
Drake Maye run for 26 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
36.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the Virg 6Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
36.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 11Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-6
37.2%
Drake Maye sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+35
36.1%
Noah Burnette 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3INT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:0636% → 39%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.4%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
36.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 15 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
37.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 13 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
38.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Logan Taylor) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+7
38.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Xavier Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
38.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Storm Duck return for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3362% → 61%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
37.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+3
37.5%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
37.9%
Elijah Green run for 17 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
37.3%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
37.5%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
38.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
39.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5839% → 42%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
39.0%
Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
39.6%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
39.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
39.8%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 8 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
40.8%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
41.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 14 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
41.9%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-1
42.6%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+2
42.4%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
41.6%
Brennan Armstrong punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:2859% → 66%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
41.5%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+14
41.1%
Elijah Green run for 14 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
40.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
40.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+11
41.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
40.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+7
40.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
39.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Kamari Morales) to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+1
41.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 24
OPP 46
+15
42.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jonas Sanker) to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
40.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
40.4%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
40.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 14 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
41.1%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.8%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3737% → 52%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.8%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
36.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
38.3%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
39.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
40.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
40.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ethan Davies for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
42.0%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
42.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+7
42.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
42.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
42.3%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+11
41.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 11 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.4%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2452% → 50%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
47.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
49.1%
Drake Maye sacked by Paul Akere for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
50.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:5549% → 50%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
49.2%
Mike Hollins run for 7 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
50.3%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+5
50.9%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Demick StarlingSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
51.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+19
49.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds , Josh Downs returns for 19 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0648% → 47%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
52.5%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+20
52.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 20 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4550% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.3%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
50.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 14 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
48.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+32
49.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 32 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
45.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 9 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+11
45.7%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.5%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0140% → 63%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
39.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Don Chapman) to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
41.3%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 5
50
+4
42.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
39.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
42.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Cedric Gray for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+2
39.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+15
38.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 15 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
44.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 33 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:1742% → 66%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
57.9%
Drake Maye run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
54.5%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
55.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+15
55.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
53.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
53.4%
Elijah Green run for 6 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-4
53.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Olasunkonmi Agunloye for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
33.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:5640% → 38%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
39.6%
Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
43.3%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
43.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
43.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
39.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
38.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3163% → 83%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
37.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
35.3%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
36.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 15 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
34.0%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
33.7%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+14
34.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 14 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
32.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
32.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
33.3%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
35.8%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
16.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 22 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5518% → 15%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
18.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Devine) to the Virg 8Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 16
OWN 8
+5
17.6%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
17.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+9
16.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
14.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:3086% → 88%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
14.3%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
13.9%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
11.8%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
12.3%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
11.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Elijah GreenSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-6
11.2%
Drake Maye sacked by James Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+11
12.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-5
11.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
11.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2612% → 8%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
11.6%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
11.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+13
10.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sean Wilson for 13 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
11.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
10.1%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
9.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+38
7.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds , Josh Downs returns for 38 yds to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2992% → 92%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
7.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
8.0%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+3
7.7%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+1
8.2%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 0:466% → 47%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
5.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 11 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
6.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+40
7.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 40 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
10.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
9.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ethan DaviesSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+12
8.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0084% → 95%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
15.6%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
14.1%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
12.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
8.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Aaron Faumui) to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 5
OPP 6
+2
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 8 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
4.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Olasunkonmi Agunloye) to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:24
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Bettridge KICK)
+39
TD · Q3 4:13
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 19 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q4 13:19
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 22 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
-18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com