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MIA

Miami 14 at Virginia 12

UVA
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:49 · Daniel Sparks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+10.0+5.00−5.0−10.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior−6.1Home team on offense+1.5Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:01: Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2 — UVA win probability +6.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:11: Will Bettridge 24 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +9.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:29: Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Colbie Young — MIA win probability +6.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 00:03 — UVA win probability +7.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Andres Borregales 20 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +31.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 12:40MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:10MIA 4th & 6 at UVA 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:04UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:31MIA 4th & 2 at UVA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:49UVA 4th & 8 at MIA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:41MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:45UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00MIA 4th & 1 at UVA 20, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%−2.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:42UVA 4th & 9 at MIA 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−10.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:01MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:53UVA 4th & 1 at MIA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−4.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−16.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:17MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:11UVA 4th & 4 at MIA 6, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−19.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:59MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:29UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−8.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00MIA 4th & 2 at UVA 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−36.2
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
40.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
40.7%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Cooper,Anez) 5 yards from MIA40 to MIA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
40.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 10 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
40.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
40.7%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Frank Ladson Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
40.7%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
41.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2342% → 42%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
41.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
41.4%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+20
41.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 20 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Sean WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Xavier Brown for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
41.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
42.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:2058% → 57%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
42.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
42.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
42.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
41.7%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Scaife, Jr.,DJ) 5 yards from MIA41 to MIA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+4
42.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
42.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-7
42.1%
Jake Garcia sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 18
OWN 33
+2
43.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 48 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 2 yds to the Virg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0943% → 43%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
43.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
43.2%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
42.9%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
43.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:3856% → 56%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
43.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
43.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.7%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
43.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
42.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brashard Smith for 4 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
42.3%
Romello Brinson sacked by Antonio Clary for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
42.8%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+7
43.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
43.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0645% → 44%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jahfari Harvey for 0 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-2
44.5%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+18
44.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 49 , Jacolby George returns for 18 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3357% → 56%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
43.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
42.6%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
42.8%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
44.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:4247% → 49%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
46.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 15 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
47.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+6
46.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+16
46.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 16 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
47.3%
Mike Hollins run for 14 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
48.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
50
+7
48.6%
Perris Jones run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-15
48.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass complete short right to Jones,Perris for 2 yards to the MIA41, End Of Play PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Wilson,Sean) 15 yards from MIA43 to UVA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+9
46.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
48.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 5:0853% → 52%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
47.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
46.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
45.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
44.6%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
44.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 11 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
43.9%
Jake Garcia run for 4 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
43.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 1 yd to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-9
44.3%
Jake Garcia sacked by Chico Bennett Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 49 Jake Garcia fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jake Garcia , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
47.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5651% → 49%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
50.5%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
50.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
50.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for no gain to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+14
49.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds , Jacolby George returns for 14 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4556% → 61%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
44.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+23
43.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 23 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
41.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
40.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
42.1%
Jake Garcia run for 2 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+38
39.5%
Andres Borregales 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:1844% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
43.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+30
41.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+47
46.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 47 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+7
48.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
48.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
46.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
52.2%
Will Bettridge 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4152% → 52%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
47.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
46.6%
Jacurri Brown run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
45.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
44.5%
Jacurri Brown pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
44.9%
Jacurri Brown pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
48.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:0852% → 54%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
51.5%
Xavier Brown run for 6 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-5
52.1%
PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from UVA23 to UVA18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+14
51.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 14 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
51.9%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+66
50.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 64 yds to the VIRGINIA 3 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Romello Brinson) to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 1 yd to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Grant MischSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3651% → 48%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
48.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Parrish Jr.,Henry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA06 (Bennett, Jr.,Chico; Butler,Kameron) PENALTY UVA Offside (Bennett, Jr.,Chico) 5 yards from MIA01 to MIA06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+15
48.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Coen King) to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Colbie Young for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
48.4%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Clark,Jakai) 5 yards from MIA29 to MIA24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
52.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:0653% → 68%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
52.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
55.6%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
57.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 18 yds to the VIRGINIA 36 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Romello Brinson) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
58.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
59.6%
Perris Jones run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
59.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
59.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
57.7%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
67.5%
Will Bettridge 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:1237% → 37%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
63.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
63.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jacolby George for 9 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
61.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
60.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.7%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
60.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+1
59.7%
Jake Garcia run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
63.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3069% → 68%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
69.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 9 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+9
69.9%
Perris Jones run for 9 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
70.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 17
OWN 22
-5
68.6%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Furnish,Ty) 5 yards from UVA22 to UVA17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+8
68.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+17
67.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds , Jacolby George returns for 17 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FG
18 plays · 53 yds · 5:2939% → 57%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.4%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
63.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Brashard Smith for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
58.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
58.0%
Jake Garcia pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
58.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
56.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+12
55.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 12 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
55.8%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+7
55.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
60.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
61.7%
PENALTY MIA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UVA02 to UVA07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
67.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
43.1%
Andres Borregales 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-43.1
FG · Q4 0:00
Andres Borregales 20 yd FG GOOD
-31.9
FG · Q4 12:11
Will Bettridge 24 yd FG GOOD
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com