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UVA

Virginia 39 at North Carolina 59

UNC
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:48 · Jacob Finn punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 37 , Josh Downs returns for 38 yds to the Virg 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+2.6Pregame prior+6.9Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:13: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 40 yds for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +9.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:54: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +8.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:26: Caleb Hood run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +11.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:40: Ty Chandler run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +11.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:11: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds for a TD — UVA win probability +8.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:59UVA 4th & 11 at UNC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:28UVA 4th & 2 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:47UNC 4th & 12 at UVA 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−5.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:01UNC 4th & 13 at UVA 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:48UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:57UVA 4th & 10 at UNC 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:13UVA 4th & 3 at UNC 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:01UVA 4th & 6 at UNC 15, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:45UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:00UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:27UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:16UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:13UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:54UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:26UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:40UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:13UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:11UVA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:57UNC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:0134% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+28
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 28 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
66.1%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
66.1%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
66.1%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Bissinger,Joe) 5 yards from UNC31 to UNC36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
66.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 6
OPP 36
-5
65.7%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Thompson,Keytaon) 5 yards from UNC36 to UNC41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
65.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:1466% → 67%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
65.9%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
65.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
67.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 59 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:2933% → 33%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
67.0%
PENALTY UNC Offside (Vohasek,Raymond) 5 yards from UVA27 to UVA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
66.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+49
67.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 49 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
66.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 7 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+6
66.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:1668% → 72%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
67.7%
Ty Chandler run for 17 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
67.7%
Ty Chandler run for 28 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
71.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 37 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3330% → 34%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 16 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
70.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 4 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
70.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
70.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 8 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
69.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line Brennan Armstrong fumbled, recovered by Virg Olusegun Oluwatimi , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 13
50
+7
70.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+19
69.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 19 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
69.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 19 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
69.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
73.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 75 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:4828% → 27%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.3%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
72.3%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
72.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
72.8%
Armstrong,Brennan rush for 3 yards gain to the UVA45 (Fox,Tomon) PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UVA42 to UVA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+1
72.1%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 1 yd to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
72.4%
Dontayvion Wicks pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
72.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 2
50
0
73.2%
Jacob Finn punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4175% → 81%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
75.0%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+2
75.2%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.0%
Howell,Sam pass incomplete to Brown,Khafre PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Cypress II,Fentrell) 15 yards from UNC25 to UNC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.9%
Caleb Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+37
75.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 37 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
76.2%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
76.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+1
75.8%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 7
OPP 14
-5
76.5%
PENALTY UNC Illegal Forward Pass (Howell,Sam) 5 yards from UVA14 to UVA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
81.0%
Grayson Atkins 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3420% → 30%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.7%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+32
79.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 32 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
70.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 40 yds for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10INT
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3571% → 74%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.7%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
70.5%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
70.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+25
71.9%
Caleb Hood run for 25 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
72.3%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+15
72.3%
Howell,Sam pass incomplete to Green,Antoine PENALTY UVA Face Mask (Faumui,Aaron) 15 yards from UVA31 to UVA16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
72.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.3%
Sam Howell pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+15
74.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:4429% → 39%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
71.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 19 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
70.3%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+31
72.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 31 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
69.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
71.4%
Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete to Woods,Jelani PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 9 yards from UNC11 to UNC02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 1 yd for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5366% → 71%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
65.6%
Sam Howell run for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
67.8%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+15
68.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
68.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Aaron Faumui for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
68.0%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
66.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Caleb HoodSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+54
70.7%
Grayson Atkins 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 0:5532% → 33%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
68.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
50
+11
66.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 11 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
65.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
67.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 15 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
66.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
66.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 21 yds for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
72.5%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0473% → 70%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
72.8%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+60
72.8%
Ty Chandler run for 60 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
74.9%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
74.9%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0234% → 32%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
66.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 16
OWN 19
+1
66.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
66.5%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
67.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+38
68.5%
Jacob Finn punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 37 , Josh Downs returns for 38 yds to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2270% → 82%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
69.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+4
69.6%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
70.7%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
69.5%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
70.7%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
70.7%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
82.0%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:2920% → 25%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 22 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
78.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Iraken Armstead for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
77.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
77.8%
Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete to Woods,Jelani PENALTY UNC Offside (Evans,Desmond) 5 yards from UNC43 to UNC38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
77.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 21 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
76.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
76.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
78.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
75.0%
Justin Duenkel 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1779% → 93%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.4%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
78.7%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
80.0%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+36
79.6%
Ty Chandler run for 21 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Antonio Clary) to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
81.3%
Caleb Hood run for 15 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
81.3%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
93.2%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trey Morrison) to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:2093% → 99%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
93.0%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
93.0%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+25
93.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Targeting (Coen King) to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
93.7%
Sam Howell run for 16 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Block Below Waist (Kamari Morales) to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 9
OPP 42
+14
93.7%
Josh Henderson run for 14 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
93.8%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+14
93.8%
Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.2%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
94.2%
PENALTY UVA UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Bratton,Darrius) 2 yards from UVA05 to UVA03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:022% → 10%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 14 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.3%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+13
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
98.3%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+2
98.3%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+12
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 12 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
98.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 9 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
98.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
90.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1496% → 100%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.1%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
96.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+25
96.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
96.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
96.5%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
96.5%
Ty Chandler run for 11 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
96.5%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
13 plays · 66 yds · 2:571% → 0%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 17 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+8
99.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Malachi Fields for 8 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
99.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+27
99.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 27 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for no gain to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jacob Rodriguez for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+6
99.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 6 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:40
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q3 7:26
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q2 9:13
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 40 yds for a TD (Justin Duenkel KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com