Try the model
W&M

William & Mary 0 at Virginia 43

UVA
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:50 · Jacob Finn punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Kane Everson at the WmMry 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+42.6Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:00: Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:25: Ethan Chang 42 yd FG GOOD — W&M win probability +1.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:01: Ethan Chang 36 yd FG GOOD — W&M win probability +4.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:54: Justin Duenkel 25 yd FG GOOD — W&M win probability +2.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:52: Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6W&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:50W&M 4th & 1 at W&M 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05UVA 4th & 8 at W&M 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12W&M 4th & 5 at W&M 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:18UVA 4th & 2 at W&M 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:07W&M 4th & 8 at W&M 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:50UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:38W&M 4th & 6 at W&M 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:16UVA 4th & 1 at W&M 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:59W&M 4th & 13 at W&M 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:25W&M 4th & 22 at UVA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:42UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 16, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:42W&M 4th & 1 at UVA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−1.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:01W&M 4th & 7 at UVA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:42W&M 4th & 3 at W&M 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:54UVA 4th & 7 at W&M 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:22W&M 4th & 15 at UVA 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:34W&M 4th & 1 at W&M 36, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.9 ptsPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:00UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
W&MDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:102% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.6%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the WmMry 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
97.6%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
97.6%
Darius Wilson run for 4 yds to the WmMry 34Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.3%
Will Michael punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WmMry 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4597% → 97%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the WmMry 22Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
97.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
97.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
97.2%
Justin Duenkel 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:533% → 3%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
97.2%
Darius Wilson sacked by Mandy Alonso for a loss of 10 yards to the WmMry 15Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
97.2%
DreSean Kendrick run for 1 yd to the WmMry 16Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+14
97.2%
Donavyn Lester run for 14 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.0%
Will Michael punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:5497% → 96%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+27
96.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 27 yds to the WmMry 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 3 yds to the WmMry 41Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
97.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+11
97.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the WmMry 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the WmMry 37Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+14
96.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 14 yds to the WmMry 23Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
97.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the WmMry 22Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+1
96.3%
Iraken Armstead run for 1 yd to the WmMry 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:114% → 4%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
96.3%
Darius Wilson pass complete to DreSean Kendrick for 1 yd to the WmMry 24Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
96.3%
DreSean Kendrick run for 4 yds to the WmMry 28Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+3
96.3%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Donavyn Lester for 3 yds to the WmMry 25Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Will Michael punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1796% → 95%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
95.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 16 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the WmMry 49Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
96.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-5
95.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
95.1%
Jacob Finn punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Kane Everson at the WmMry 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:125% → 5%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
95.4%
Donavyn Lester run for no gain to the WmMry 7Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
95.4%
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds to the WmMry 12Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+4
95.1%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Kane Everson for 4 yds to the WmMry 16Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 1
OWN 16
-5
95.1%
Michael,Will punt 43 yards to the UVA41 Kemp,Billy return 3 yards to the UVA44 (Jennette,James) PENALTY WM Illegal Formation 5 yards from WM16 to WM11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
95.1%
Will Michael punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2295% → 95%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
95.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 5 yds to the WmMry 31Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
95.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jacob RodriguezSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
95.0%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 4 yds to the WmMry 27Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
94.5%
Jacob Rodriguez run for no gain to the WmMry 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:176% → 6%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
94.4%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the WmMry 25Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+1
94.5%
Darius Wilson run for 1 yd to the WmMry 26Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+2
94.6%
DreSean Kendrick run for 2 yds to the WmMry 24Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
94.2%
Will Michael punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5994% → 95%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
93.8%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+23
93.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 23 yds to the WmMry 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
94.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 30 yds to the WmMry 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 11FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:355% → 6%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
95.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 6 yds to the WmMry 23Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Darius Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
95.1%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Donavyn Lester for 12 yds to the WmMry 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
94.9%
Wilson,Darius pass incomplete to Burdick,Zach PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Johnson,Anthony) 15 yards from WM35 to WM50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
94.6%
DreSean Kendrick run for 11 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
94.6%
Darius Wilson run for 16 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.3%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+8
94.3%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Cole Blackman for 8 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
94.3%
Elijah Burns run for no gain to the Virg 13Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
94.3%
Darius Wilson run for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
94.5%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Zach BurdickSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 7
OPP 10
-15
94.9%
PENALTY WM Personal Foul (Sorsdal,Colby) 15 yards from UVA10 to UVA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 22
OPP 25
+42
93.6%
Ethan Chang 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5394% → 93%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
93.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 17 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+11
93.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the WmMry 47Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+40
93.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 40 yds to the WmMry 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
93.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the WmMry 5Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.1%
DreSean Kendrick run for 4 yds to the WmMry 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0693% → 91%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
92.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+11
92.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
92.2%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
91.2%
Jacob Finn punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 15FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:419% → 13%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
90.8%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Tyler Rose for 20 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
90.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
89.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 4 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
90.5%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
91.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
89.8%
DreSean Kendrick run for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+14
90.6%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Donavyn Lester for 14 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
90.5%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Donavyn LesterSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-5
91.0%
PENALTY WM Delay Of Game 5 yards from UVA14 to UVA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
86.7%
Ethan Chang 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3388% → 88%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
88.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 15 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
88.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 65 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4613% → 15%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Kane EversonSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.5%
DreSean Kendrick run for 3 yds to the WmMry 28Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
87.9%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Kane Everson for 8 yds to the WmMry 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.7%
Elijah Burns run for 4 yds to the WmMry 40Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
85.9%
DreSean Kendrick run for 3 yds to the WmMry 43Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
85.8%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Cole BlackmanSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
85.4%
Will Michael punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4887% → 86%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
86.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
87.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 18 yds to the WmMry 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
88.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the WmMry 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
88.8%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 24 yds to the WmMry 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
88.8%
Jacob Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the WmMry 8Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
88.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
88.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
86.0%
Justin Duenkel 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 19SF
3 plays · -25 yds · 0:1316% → 16%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.0%
Wilson,Darius pass incomplete to Burdick,Zach PENALTY WM Holding (Evers,Daniel) 10 yards from WM25 to WM15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
84.0%
run for 15 yds for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:1987% → 87%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
86.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 16 yds to the WmMry 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for no gain to the WmMry 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
86.6%
Devin Darrington run for 9 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+27
86.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 27 yds to the WmMry 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:5418% → 20%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
81.6%
DreSean Kendrick run for 3 yds to the WmMry 32Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+15
82.6%
Darius Wilson run for 15 yds to the WmMry 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
79.4%
Darius Wilson pass complete to Anthony Mague for 19 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
77.8%
DreSean Kendrick run for 1 yd to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
77.8%
Darius Wilson pass incomplete to Tyler RoseSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-10
80.3%
Kendrick,DreSean rush for 5 yards gain to the UVA30 (Taylor,Noah) PENALTY WM Holding (Ryder,Cory) 10 yards from UVA35 to UVA45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 21
OPP 45
+6
82.1%
Kane Everson run for 6 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
80.5%
Will Michael punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 3:3081% → 87%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
81.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 23 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
82.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
83.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 4 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+20
83.9%
Iraken Armstead run for 20 yds to the WmMry 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
85.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 21 yds to the WmMry 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
85.1%
Devin Darrington run for 3 yds to the WmMry 9Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
87.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 4:1823% → 21%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
76.8%
Elijah Burns run for 3 yds to the WmMry 19Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
77.1%
Elijah Burns run for 2 yds to the WmMry 21Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+6
78.3%
Mattijs Lasore run for 6 yds to the WmMry 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
76.2%
Chase Hart pass complete to Colton Turner for 6 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
74.4%
Mattijs Lasore run for 2 yds to the WmMry 35Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
75.3%
Mattijs Lasore run for 1 yd to the WmMry 36Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
78.8%
Will Whitehurst punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3488% → 82%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Iraken Armstead pass incomplete to Artie HenrySimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
88.0%
Iraken Armstead run for 20 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
89.7%
Iraken Armstead run for 15 yds to the WmMry 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
90.4%
Devin Darrington run for 6 yds to the WmMry 39Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Iraken Armstead run for no gain to the WmMry 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-2
82.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18
FG · Q3 8:01
Ethan Chang 36 yd FG GOOD
-4.2
FG · Q3 1:54
Justin Duenkel 25 yd FG GOOD
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com