Kansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2584th
  Defense+0.1545th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.7%87th
  Defense46.0%20th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1639th
  Defense+1.1665th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0946th
  Defense+0.1050th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4291st
  Defense+0.2344th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.2%89th
  Defense49.7%26th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.7%87th
  Defense38.1%13th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.5720th
  Defense2.9442nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense23.5%16th
  Defense19.9%54th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.8%62nd
  Defense1.9%47th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SFA
2. W
   ISU
3. L
   AUB
4. W
   UTEP
5. W
   TTU
6. W
   OU
7. W
   TEX
8. W
   OKST
9. L
   TCU
10. W
    WVU
11. W
    KU
12. L
    BAY
13. L
    UCLA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas State.

Players, 2014

1. Jake WatersQB420 plays · +0.292 pts/play · 18th of 199 QBs
   2.30WAR1.63 to 2.98
2. Tyler LockettWR111 plays · +0.255 pts/play · 2nd of 469 WRs
   0.53WAR0.35 to 0.69
3. Curry SextonWR76 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 49th of 469 WRs
   0.23WAR0.14 to 0.32
4. Charles JonesRB101 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 114th of 350 RBs
   0.20WAR0.13 to 0.28
5. DeMarcus RobinsonRB77 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 154th of 350 RBs
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.21
6. Matthew McCranePK13 plays · +0.472 pts/play · 50th of 114 kickers
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.15
7. Nick WalshP40 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 47th of 94 punters
   0.09WAR0.02 to 0.17
8. Kody CookWR23 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 290th of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WVUQ4 2:52 4th & 1 at WVU 16, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
2. at WVUQ3 2:13 4th & 2 at WVU 2, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
3. at ISUQ3 10:57 4th & 3 at KSU 48, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. vs OKSTQ2 3:44 4th & 1 at KSU 29, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. at OUQ3 0:00 4th & 7 at OU 39, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. at WVUQ4 0:00 4th & 21 at KSU 46, up 6Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.0 pts
7. vs AUBQ3 4:44 4th & 4 at AUB 5, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs TEXQ3 2:49 4th & 2 at TEX 21, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

32nd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SFA
2. W

   ISU
3. L

   AUB
4. W

   UTEP
5. W

   TTU
6. W

   OU
7. W

   TEX
8. W

   OKST
9. L

   TCU
10. W

    WVU
11. W

    KU
12. L

    BAY
13. L

    UCLA

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Kansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.76
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock+0.08
• Timeouts−0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.03

Game by game

• SFAW 55-16 vs SFA99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• ISUW 32-28 at ISU85% → 95%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +26, Clock +2
• AUBL 14-20 vs AUB28% → 5%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −36, Clock −2
• UTEPW 58-28 vs UTEP97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• TTUW 45-13 vs TTU80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +23
• OUW 31-30 at OU20% → 85%Before kickoff −30 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +42, Clock +4
• TEXW 23-0 vs TEX79% → 100%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +24
• OKSTW 48-14 vs OKST80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +22
• TCUL 20-41 at TCU34% → 0%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts +1
• WVUW 26-20 at WVU42% → 96%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +55, Clock +3
• KUW 51-13 vs KU96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• BAYL 27-38 at BAY24% → 3%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −2
• UCLAL 35-40 at UCLA51% → 8%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts −5

Points of win probability, from Kansas State's side.

Closest call

KSU 38-35 OU (2020) - Kansas State dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.