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KSU

Kansas State 27 at Baylor 38

BAY
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2014 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:44 · Nick Walsh punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+13.4Home team on offense+5.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:47: Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:08: Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:10: Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 58 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:56: Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:41: Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:14KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:11KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:58BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:44KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:36KSU 4th & 7 at BAY 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−6.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:30KSU 4th & 7 at BAY 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:48BAY 4th & 24 at BAY 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:00KSU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:25BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:12BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:47KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:43BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:08KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:10BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:56BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:41KSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 1:2676% → 76%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
75.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
75.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 12 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 12 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+33
75.4%
Antwan Goodley run for 33 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 13 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.8%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4624% → 24%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.6%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 5 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
75.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 3 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
75.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 7 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
75.4%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
75.4%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-3
75.4%
Jake Waters sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
75.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3INT
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:2676% → 77%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
75.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+9
75.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 9 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
76.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
76.2%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.1%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+28
76.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 28 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
76.4%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
76.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
76.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
76.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the KanSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
76.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 11 yds to the KanSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
76.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.8%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted, touchback. Randall Evans return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1524% → 24%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
76.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 16 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
75.8%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
75.7%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-1
75.6%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
76.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5176% → 81%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
76.3%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
76.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 29 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
77.1%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
77.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 7 yds Antwan Goodley fumbled, forced by Danzel McDaniel, recovered by Bayl Antwan Goodley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
77.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 11 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
77.2%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+8
77.1%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.1%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.1%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.0%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 5:1821% → 26%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
79.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 15 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
79.2%
Waters, Jake rush for 9 yards to the BAYLOR44, PENALTY KANSASST holding (Stiverson, Boston) 10 yards to the KANSASST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+22
79.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 22 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
79.1%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY KANSASST holding (Kleinsorge, Matt) 10 yards to the KANSASST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+6
79.7%
Jake Waters run for 6 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
79.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+15
80.3%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Burt, Terrell) 15 yards to the BAYLOR30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
79.2%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
79.1%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
80.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+5
80.3%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
80.5%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.5%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:4577% → 85%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
77.3%
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
77.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 6 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
78.1%
Bryce Petty run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 1
50
+6
78.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 6 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
78.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
78.9%
Bryce Petty run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
78.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
79.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 3 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
79.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 5 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+8
79.1%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the KanSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2517% → 24%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.1%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
83.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
82.9%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
83.3%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Trujillo, Zach, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Howard, Xavien) 15 yards to the BAYLOR48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
82.7%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-1
82.5%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
83.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 8 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
75.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0078% → 76%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
78.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
78.3%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-5
77.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Antwan Goodley) to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+8
77.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 8 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+4
75.8%
Spencer Roth punt for 45 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for 4 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5624% → 21%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
76.3%
Jake Waters sacked by Bryce Hager for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+4
77.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 4 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+6
79.6%
Jake Waters run for 6 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:3078% → 83%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
77.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
78.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
79.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
79.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay Lee, broken up by Morgan BurnsSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+23
78.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 23 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+46
82.8%
Chris Callahan 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0521% → 24%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
79.1%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
78.5%
Tyler Lockett run for 4 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
79.9%
Jake Waters run for 1 yd to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+48
79.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 48 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
78.2%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
78.3%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.4%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
76.2%
Matthew McCrane 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:1378% → 88%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
78.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 19 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
88.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 58 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:3013% → 15%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
86.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Orion Stewart) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
85.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 6 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+7
85.0%
Jake Waters run for 7 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
84.7%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
84.5%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-4
87.0%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
84.8%
Matthew McCrane 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:2286% → 96%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
86.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 13 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
86.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Pat Colbert) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+19
86.2%
Shock Linwood run for 19 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 6 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+9
87.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
87.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
87.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
87.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 8 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
88.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
88.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 6 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 6:386% → 14%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
94.1%
Glenn Gronkowski run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 7Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 13
OWN 7
-4
94.4%
Jake Waters sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 3Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 17
OWN 3
+18
94.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 18 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
94.4%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+8
94.6%
Charles Jones run for 8 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
94.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 21 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
94.8%
Charles Jones run for 11 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
95.0%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+7
94.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
94.6%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
95.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 9 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
95.1%
Charles Jones run for 8 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
85.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4090% → 92%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
90.6%
Bryce Petty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+14
90.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 14 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.5%
Corey Coleman run for no gain to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
92.4%
Bryce Petty sacked by Ryan Mueller for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 17
OWN 44
-7
92.4%
Bryce Petty sacked by Marquel Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 24
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Spencer Roth punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Lockett at the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18INT
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:147% → 8%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
92.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 9 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
91.4%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
92.1%
Jake Waters run for 12 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
91.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 1
50
0
90.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Charles Jones, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 1
50
0
91.5%
Jake Waters run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 1
50
+1
92.2%
Jake Waters run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
91.5%
Jake Waters sacked by Xavien Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+2
93.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 2 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+20
93.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 20 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.6%
Jake Waters pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:5394% → 97%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
94.3%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
94.3%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+14
94.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 14 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.7%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
96.5%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
96.4%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.1%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
97.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 58 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q4 12:41
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 4:08
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com