2014 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2014 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:30 · Matthew McCrane 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:47: Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:08: Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:10: Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 58 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:56: Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:41: Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:14KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it26.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q1 4:11KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.5%average punt
- Q2 1:58BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 20, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it75.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:44KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it23.0%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.6%average punt
- Q3 11:36KSU 4th & 7 at BAY 7, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snapGo for it18.3%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call18.8%91% to makePunt11.9%−6.9average punt
- Q3 7:30KSU 4th & 7 at BAY 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call13.5%56% to makePunt12.3%−1.2average punt
- Q4 9:48BAY 4th & 24 at BAY 37, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it88.2%−2.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q4 7:00KSU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.3%−1.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:25BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.7%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:12BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.6%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:47KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.1%97% to makeGo for two25.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:43BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:08KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.4%97% to makeGo for two23.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:10BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:56BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:41KSU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.7%97% to makeGo for two9.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBAYDrive 1TD9 plays · 81 yds · 1:2676% → 76%
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
75.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 12 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 12 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
75.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 13 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4624% → 24%
Q1 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
75.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 3 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
75.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 7 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
75.4%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-3
75.4%
Jake Waters sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
75.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3INT13 plays · 81 yds · 3:2676% → 77%
Q1 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+9
75.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 9 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
76.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+28
76.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 28 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
76.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 11 yds to the KanSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.8%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted, touchback. Randall Evans return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1524% → 24%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
76.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 16 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5176% → 81%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
76.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 29 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
77.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 7 yds Antwan Goodley fumbled, forced by Danzel McDaniel, recovered by Bayl Antwan Goodley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
77.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 11 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD15 plays · 68 yds · 5:1821% → 26%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
79.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 15 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
79.2%
Waters, Jake rush for 9 yards to the BAYLOR44, PENALTY KANSASST holding (Stiverson, Boston) 10 yards to the KANSASST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+22
79.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 22 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
79.1%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY KANSASST holding (Kleinsorge, Matt) 10 yards to the KANSASST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
79.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+15
80.3%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Burt, Terrell) 15 yards to the BAYLOR30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
80.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD12 plays · 70 yds · 2:4577% → 85%
Q2 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
77.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 6 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 1
50
+6
78.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 6 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
78.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
78.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
79.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 3 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
79.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 5 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2517% → 24%
Q2 7:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
83.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
83.3%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Trujillo, Zach, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Howard, Xavien) 15 yards to the BAYLOR48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
83.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 8 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
75.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0078% → 76%
KSUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5624% → 21%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
76.3%
Jake Waters sacked by Bryce Hager for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+4
77.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 4 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF7 plays · 48 yds · 0:3078% → 83%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
77.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
78.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
79.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+23
78.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 23 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FG9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0521% → 24%
BAYDrive 13TD3 plays · 77 yds · 0:1378% → 88%
KSUDrive 14FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:3013% → 15%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
86.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Orion Stewart) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
85.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 6 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD12 plays · 72 yds · 2:2286% → 96%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
86.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 13 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 6 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+9
87.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
87.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 8 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD14 plays · 90 yds · 6:386% → 14%
Q3 3:45
2ND & 13
OWN 7
-4
94.4%
Jake Waters sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 3Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 17
OWN 3
+18
94.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 18 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
94.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 21 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+7
94.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
95.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 9 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
85.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4090% → 92%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+14
90.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 14 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
92.4%
Bryce Petty sacked by Ryan Mueller for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 17
OWN 44
-7
92.4%
Bryce Petty sacked by Marquel Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 24
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Spencer Roth punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Lockett at the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18INT11 plays · 51 yds · 4:147% → 8%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
92.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 9 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
91.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 1
50
0
90.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Charles Jones, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
91.5%
Jake Waters sacked by Xavien Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+2
93.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 2 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+20
93.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 20 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.6%
Jake Waters pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19END OF GAME11 plays · 44 yds · 4:5394% → 97%
Q4 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+14
94.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 14 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 58 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q4 12:41
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 4:08
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 36 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-7.2