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AUB

Auburn 20 at Kansas State 14

KSU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 18, 2014 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:44 · Jack Cantele 22 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−7.6Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor−1.7Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:56: DeMarcus Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK) — KSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:34: Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +16.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:10: Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:49: Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +23.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:41: Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 31 — AUB win probability +8.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:04AUB 4th & 7 at KSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14AUB 4th & 6 at KSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:27KSU 4th & 3 at AUB 24, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16AUB 4th & 4 at KSU 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:17KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:07KSU 4th & 9 at AUB 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:48AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:59KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:38AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44KSU 4th & 4 at AUB 5, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−13.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:28AUB 4th & 7 at KSU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−8.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 4:56KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:34AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:10AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:49KSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:4572% → 71%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
28.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
50
+3
28.4%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
28.5%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
28.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
28.7%
Matthew Shiel punt for 35 yds, downed at the KanSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4729% → 29%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
28.8%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
29.1%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+10
29.0%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Jones, Jonathan) 10 yards to the KANSASST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
29.2%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 21 Jake Waters fumbled, recovered by Aub Robenson TherezieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2871% → 70%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
29.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-1
29.2%
Corey Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 22Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+5
29.5%
Corey Grant run for 5 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
29.7%
Daniel Carlson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4INT
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:4030% → 33%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.8%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 13 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
30.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 8 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-4
31.0%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
30.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 5 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+6
31.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (DaVonte Lambert) to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
31.7%
Charles Jones run for 13 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
32.1%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
32.2%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+20
32.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 20 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
32.6%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Jones, Jonathan) 13 yards to the AUBURN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.7%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.9%
Jake Waters pass intercepted, touchback. Jonathan Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3468% → 67%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
31.9%
Corey Grant run for 10 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
32.0%
Corey Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
32.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+7
32.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+30
33.0%
Daniel Carlson punt for 37 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for 30 yds to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4934% → 35%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
33.9%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
34.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
34.3%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 3 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
35.3%
Jake Waters run for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
35.6%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
35.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
34.6%
Jack Cantele 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:5366% → 66%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
33.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
33.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
33.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
32.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 7 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
32.5%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 5
50
+1
32.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
32.7%
Nick Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
33.6%
Daniel Carlson punt for 28 yds, downed at the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3135% → 34%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
34.7%
Jake Waters sacked by DaVonte Lambert for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
34.6%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
34.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
33.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
33.3%
Nick Marshall pass intercepted Dakorey Johnson return for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3937% → 36%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
37.2%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+4
36.3%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+1
37.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 1 yd to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
35.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 37 yds, downed at the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:1564% → 64%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
35.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Ricardo LouisSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+12
35.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 12 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
35.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+15
35.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 15 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
35.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
33.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
34.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+26
35.6%
Daniel Carlson punt for 49 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for 26 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:3937% → 49%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
37.2%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 9 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+22
38.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 22 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
39.5%
Jake Waters run for no gain to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
39.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 23 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.2%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.9%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1454% → 68%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.8%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
45.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.4%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
46.1%
Nick Marshall run for 7 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
44.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 4 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
44.6%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
49.1%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 7
50
+10
48.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 10 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
32.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 39 yds · 1:2338% → 34%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
37.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Charles Jones for 16 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
40.6%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
39.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+14
39.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 14 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
41.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 13 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
41.8%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 1 yd to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-12
40.6%
Jake Waters sacked by Kris Frost for a loss of 12 yards to the Aub 25 Jake Waters fumbled, forced by Kris Frost, recovered by KanSt DeMarcus Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+42
34.4%
Jack Cantele 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5237% → 35%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.8%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
38.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Glenn GronkowskiSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
36.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
35.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 56 yds, downed at the Aub 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:2165% → 60%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
35.4%
Ricardo Louis run for 3 yds to the Aub 15 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 14
OWN 8
+6
36.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
36.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 6 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
36.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
36.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
36.4%
Ricardo Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
38.5%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+15
39.7%
Daniel Carlson punt for 43 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for 15 yds to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 5:3642% → 42%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
42.3%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
42.8%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+9
42.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 9 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
43.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Deante Burton for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+5
45.5%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
45.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 5 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
46.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Charles Jones for no gain to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
44.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Deante Burton for 10 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
46.5%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
46.8%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
44.3%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
42.1%
Jack Cantele 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:1864% → 82%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.5%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
36.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
38.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 12 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
35.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
35.6%
Nick Marshall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
36.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 9 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
34.1%
Nick Marshall run for 17 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
33.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
32.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
33.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
32.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
32.2%
Corey Grant run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+12
34.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 12 yds to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
32.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
18.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:4020% → 17%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
20.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
19.7%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
18.7%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY KANSASST illegal block off-setting, PENALTY AUBURN Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
18.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 11 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
18.1%
Jake Waters sacked by Kris Frost for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
16.7%
Jake Waters pass intercepted Trovon Reed return for no gain to the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 5:1285% → 95%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
15.3%
Ricardo Louis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 49 Ricardo Louis fumbled, recovered by Aub Nick MarshallSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+16
16.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 16 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
13.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
13.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+10
12.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 10 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
11.2%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+13
11.5%
Corey Grant run for 13 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
10.7%
Quan Bray run for no gain to the KanSt 16Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+5
11.1%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
10.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the KanSt 10Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
9.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
9.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
5.3%
Daniel Carlson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:197% → 31%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
6.9%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
7.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 6 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+13
7.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 13 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
7.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
10.1%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Charles JonesSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
9.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
10.3%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+13
9.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 13 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
9.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 9 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+4
7.2%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.8%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:3686% → 95%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
12.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
10.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
10.5%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+39
8.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 39 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-2
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 13
OPP 27
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:49
Charles Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
+23.6
TD · Q2 1:34
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q4 14:10
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com