Kansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1873rd
  Defense+0.0378th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.9%53rd
  Defense39.5%75th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3384th
  Defense+1.2452nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1572nd
  Defense+0.0658th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2246th
  Defense+0.1664th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.6%41st
  Defense45.1%72nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.5%78th
  Defense27.3%76th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2068th
  Defense3.2425th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.2%43rd
  Defense16.3%42nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.1%90th
  Defense14.5%25th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SDAK
2. W
   MIZ
3. L
   TULN
4. W
   OU
5. W
   TTU
6. W
   ISU
7. L
   TCU
8. W
   OKST
9. L
   TEX
10. W
    BAY
11. W
    WVU
12. W
    KU
13. W
    TCU
14. L
    ALA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas State.

Players, 2022

1. Adrian MartinezQB264 plays · +0.325 pts/play · 40th of 234 QBs
   1.61WAR1.14 to 2.11
2. Will HowardQB182 plays · +0.311 pts/play · 69th of 234 QBs
   1.06WAR0.63 to 1.53
3. Deuce VaughnRB282 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 12th of 384 RBs
   0.68WAR0.41 to 0.97
4. Phillip BrooksWR54 plays · +0.188 pts/play · 67th of 455 WRs
   0.19WAR0.09 to 0.29
5. Kade WarnerWR54 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 135th of 455 WRs
   0.14WAR0.05 to 0.23
6. Ty ZentnerP50 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 13th of 102 punters
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.21
7. Malik KnowlesWR59 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 185th of 455 WRs
   0.11WAR0.01 to 0.21
8. Ben SinnottTE36 plays · +0.161 pts/play · 31st of 214 TEs
   0.11WAR0.04 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  58558566th of 129Roster talent: 585, 66th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17817860th of 129Recruiting: 178, 60th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  54%54%76th of 128Returning production: 54%, 76th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +21.4+21.49th of 129SP+ rating: +21.4, 9th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 9 clear-cut ones account for 0.14 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TULNQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at TULN 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
2. at TCUQ3 5:10 4th & 2 at TCU 26, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. at TCUQ4 10:38 4th & 13 at KSU 41, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.8 pts
4. vs TULNQ4 11:32 4th & 2 at KSU 41, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at ISUQ4 14:33 4th & 2 at KSU 44, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
6. at ISUQ3 6:15 4th & 2 at ISU 15, up 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
7. at OUQ4 14:50 4th & 2 at KSU 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
8. at OUQ2 0:00 4th & 3 at OU 5, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

8th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SDAK
2. W

   MIZ
3. L

   TULN
4. W

   OU
5. W

   TTU
6. W

   ISU
7. L

   TCU
8. W

   OKST
9. L

   TEX
10. W

    BAY
11. W

    WVU
12. W

    KU
13. W

    TCU
14. L

    ALA

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Kansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.81
• Possession & field position−0.08
• Clock−0.19
• Timeouts+0.23
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.20

Game by game

• SDAKW 34-0 vs SDAK95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• MIZW 40-12 vs MIZ69% → 64%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −5: Scoreboard +5, Possession & field position −4
• TULNL 10-17 vs TULN79% → 5%Before kickoff +29 · On the field −73: Scoreboard −58, Clock −4
• OUW 41-34 at OU18% → 96%Before kickoff −32 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +56, Clock +4
• TTUW 37-28 vs TTU67% → 96%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +2
• ISUW 10-9 at ISU53% → 96%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3
• TCUL 28-38 at TCU36% → 3%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• OKSTW 48-0 vs OKST53% → 100%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +46
• TEXL 27-34 vs TEX36% → 5%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• BAYW 31-3 at BAY45% → 100%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +55, Clock +2
• WVUW 48-31 at WVU73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +34, Clock +2
• KUW 47-27 vs KU80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +1
• TCUW 31-28 at TCU48% → 71%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +39, Clock −23
• ALAL 20-45 vs ALA24% → 0%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −31, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Kansas State's side.

Closest call

KSU 38-35 OU (2020) - Kansas State dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.