Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 41 at Oklahoma 34

OU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-5.7OU 54.2%Chris Tennant 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 17 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Chris Tennant 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+17.1Home team on offense−9.5Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:15: Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:24: Chris Tennant 29 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:00: Adrian Martinez run for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +18.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:36: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +20.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:35: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 10 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +14.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:48OU 4th & 6 at OU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:23OU 4th & 7 at OU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:24KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:20KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00OU 4th & 6 at OU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:33KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:52KSU 4th & 1 at OU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:47OU 4th & 11 at KSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00KSU 4th & 3 at OU 5, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%−1.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:42OU 4th & 8 at KSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−8.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:45KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:17OU 4th & 9 at KSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:24KSU 4th & 8 at OU 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−14.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:18OU 4th & 3 at KSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−3.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−3.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:50KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 47, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:45OU 4th & 14 at KSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:58OU 4th & 4 at KSU 20, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:57KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:37KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:32OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:24OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:15KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:00KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:36OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−1.0
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:58KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:35OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0318% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
82.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 6 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
82.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 27 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
82.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
82.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+12
82.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
82.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 7 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
82.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
82.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 2 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0979% → 79%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.4%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
79.5%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
79.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
79.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
78.5%
Michael Turk punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1122% → 27%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
78.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
78.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
78.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 25 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
78.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 14 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
78.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 20 yds to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
76.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
73.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0674% → 73%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
74.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the Okla 11Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
74.1%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
74.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Theo WeaseSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
73.1%
Michael Turk punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:5928% → 29%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
72.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
71.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
72.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
71.1%
Ty Zentner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 15Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
71.1%
Ty Zentner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5272% → 75%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
71.6%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+12
71.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 12 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
75.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 56 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1225% → 26%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
74.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
75.0%
PENALTY KSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from KSU24 to KSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+9
75.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 9 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
74.2%
Ty Zentner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2074% → 73%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
74.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 4 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
74.5%
Eric Gray run for 7 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
74.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 4 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
74.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
74.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
73.0%
Michael Turk punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2727% → 27%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
73.3%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Warner,Kade) 2 yards from KSU04 to KSU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 12
OWN 2
0
73.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+7
73.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 7 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
73.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
73.0%
Ty Zentner punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0973% → 78%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
72.5%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
73.2%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
73.0%
Marcus Major run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
50
+50
78.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 50 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:5925% → 39%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
74.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Okla 42Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
74.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+9
74.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
74.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
74.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 6 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
74.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Okla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
74.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 2 yds to the Okla 12Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
74.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 6 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
74.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Okla 5Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+2
72.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the Okla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2866% → 68%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.8%
Jalil Farooq run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
65.7%
Marcus Major run for 8 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+19
65.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 19 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
68.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 26 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
69.5%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
69.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 3 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
68.3%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the KanSt 14Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
68.4%
Zach Schmit 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 2:4734% → 46%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
66.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 19 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
64.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 10 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
63.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
63.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 8 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
63.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+22
63.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 22 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
63.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
63.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+1
63.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Okla 5Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
54.2%
Chris Tennant 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1858% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.0%
Eric Gray run for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
58.8%
Eric Gray run for 17 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
61.4%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+19
60.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 19 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+9
60.1%
Jalil Farooq run for 9 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+1
62.6%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+2
60.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
63.6%
Zach Schmit 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:5739% → 38%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
61.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
62.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 13 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
59.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 40Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
59.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
60.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
61.6%
Ty Zentner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2861% → 58%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
61.0%
Eric Gray run for 25 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
63.7%
Eric Gray run for 10 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
62.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
61.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+11
60.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 11 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
57.5%
Michael Turk punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:5344% → 59%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
56.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 14 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
55.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 7 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
54.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
50
+25
53.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 25 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
51.4%
DJ Giddens run for 12 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
51.4%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the Okla 12Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
51.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Okla 11Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
52.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Sammy WheelerSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
40.7%
Chris Tennant 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0647% → 47%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 5 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
49.5%
Eric Gray run for 14 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
51.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
50.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 1 yd to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+6
49.2%
Marcus Major run for 6 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
46.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2864% → 64%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
36.3%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Gillum,Hayden) 5 yards from KSU39 to KSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+8
39.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 8 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
36.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+2
36.7%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
36.1%
Ty Zentner punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0540% → 35%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.8%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
40.6%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
39.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 4 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
40.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 26 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+5
42.9%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
44.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 1 yd to the KanSt 42Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
43.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
34.5%
Michael Turk punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4568% → 92%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
31.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 15 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
30.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 21 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
27.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
27.6%
No Huddle Martinez,Adrian pass complete deep left to Brooks,Phillip for 22 yards to the OU22 (Bowman,Billy), out of bounds PENALTY KSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Duffie,Christian) 5 yards from OU44 to OU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
26.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+16
27.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 16 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
26.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
26.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
7.6%
Adrian Martinez run for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:249% → 33%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
9.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 30 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
11.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 7 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
11.6%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
11.6%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
11.9%
Dillon Gabriel sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+16
10.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 16 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
12.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 20 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the KanSt 1Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3884% → 98%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
13.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-5
14.3%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Duffie,Christian) 5 yards from KSU45 to KSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+1
15.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+55
11.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 55 yds to the Okla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
8.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:233% → 16%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 15 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for no gain to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
2.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 13 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
2.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 10 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brayden WillisSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
2.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 11 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
3.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Eric GraySimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
3.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
3.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Eric GraySimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+8
3.0%
Eric Gray run for 8 yds to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
3.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 2 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
16.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 10 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
3.8%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:36
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q4 8:00
Adrian Martinez run for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q4 0:35
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 10 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com