Kansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2581st
  Defense+0.1448th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.7%85th
  Defense40.6%64th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2232nd
  Defense+1.3326th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2281st
  Defense+0.0862nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3584th
  Defense+0.2926th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.4%94th
  Defense45.2%77th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.3%34th
  Defense30.8%50th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3784th
  Defense2.8471st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.4%81st
  Defense15.2%29th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.7%41st
  Defense18.0%75th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   STAN
2. W
   SIU
3. W
   NEV
4. L
   OKST
5. L
   OU
6. L
   ISU
7. W
   TTU
8. W
   TCU
9. W
   KU
10. W
    WVU
11. L
    BAY
12. L
    TEX
13. W
    LSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas State.

Players, 2021

1. Skylar ThompsonQB250 plays · +0.337 pts/play · 56th of 219 QBs
   1.58WAR1.03 to 2.11
2. Deuce VaughnRB222 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 21st of 387 RBs
   0.80WAR0.55 to 1.01
3. Will HowardQB57 plays · +0.175 pts/play · 180th of 219 QBs
   0.19WAR0.05 to 0.33
4. Joe ErvinRB46 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 232nd of 387 RBs
   0.18WAR0.13 to 0.22
5. Ty ZentnerP36 plays · +0.253 pts/play · 18th of 101 punters
   0.17WAR0.09 to 0.25
6. Phillip BrooksWR50 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 126th of 474 WRs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.21
7. Malik KnowlesWR52 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 177th of 474 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.18
8. Jax DineenFB3 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 372nd of 387 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  57057067th of 130Roster talent: 570, 67th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17817860th of 130Recruiting: 178, 60th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  91%91%23rd of 128Returning production: 91%, 23rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +14.2+14.221st of 130SP+ rating: +14.2, 21st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at TEXQ2 7:59 4th & 1 at KSU 48, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
2. vs OUQ4 13:05 4th & 13 at OU 48, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.5 pts
3. vs ISUQ4 5:05 4th & 8 at ISU 9, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
4. at KUQ2 8:03 4th & 2 at midfield, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs WVUQ3 2:25 4th & 4 at WVU 8, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs WVUQ2 2:57 4th & 4 at WVU 14, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs ISUQ2 12:10 4th & 3 at ISU 15, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at OKSTQ3 7:44 4th & 2 at KSU 42, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

45th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   STAN
2. W

   SIU
3. W

   NEV
4. L

   OKST
5. L

   OU
6. L

   ISU
7. W

   TTU
8. W

   TCU
9. W

   KU
10. W

    WVU
11. L

    BAY
12. L

    TEX
13. W

    LSU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Kansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.63
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.09

Game by game

• STANW 24-7 vs STAN63% → 99%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +1
• SIUW 31-23 vs SIU90% → 94%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• NEVW 38-17 vs NEV45% → 100%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +49, Possession & field position −2
• OKSTL 20-31 at OKST36% → 0%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36
• OUL 31-37 vs OU19% → 5%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −30, Clock −2
• ISUL 20-33 vs ISU31% → 3%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −41, Possession & field position +2
• TTUW 25-24 at TTU54% → 76%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +31, Clock +4
• TCUW 31-12 vs TCU60% → 98%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +38, Possession & field position −1
• KUW 35-10 at KU93% → 97%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• WVUW 34-17 vs WVU65% → 99%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +2
• BAYL 10-20 vs BAY59% → 2%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3
• TEXL 17-22 at TEX45% → 12%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −24, Clock −1
• LSUW 42-20 vs LSU71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Kansas State's side.

Closest call

KSU 38-35 OU (2020) - Kansas State dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.