Kansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1454th
  Defense+0.1340th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.5%48th
  Defense42.2%57th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1735th
  Defense+1.2625th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0542nd
  Defense+0.1711th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3079th
  Defense+0.1166th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.5%45th
  Defense46.8%57th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.6%64th
  Defense33.8%46th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6418th
  Defense3.1122nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense23.5%11th
  Defense17.1%23rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.7%58th
  Defense18.2%25th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NICH
2. W
   BGSU
3. W
   MSST
4. L
   OKST
5. L
   BAY
6. W
   TCU
7. W
   OU
8. W
   KU
9. L
   TEX
10. L
    WVU
11. W
    TTU
12. W
    ISU
13. L
    NAVY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas State.

Players, 2019

1. Skylar ThompsonQB352 plays · +0.241 pts/play · 31st of 228 QBs
   1.59WAR1.03 to 2.19
2. James GilbertRB121 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 114th of 349 RBs
   0.36WAR0.27 to 0.46
3. Blake LynchPK19 plays · +0.570 pts/play · 10th of 114 kickers
   0.20WAR0.16 to 0.25
4. Jordon Brown?67 plays · +0.142 pts/play
   0.18WAR0.12 to 0.24
5. Devin AnctilP51 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 4th of 100 punters
   0.16WAR0.07 to 0.25
6. Dalton SchoenWR50 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 108th of 439 WRs
   0.16WAR0.09 to 0.22
7. Malik KnowlesWR29 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 330th of 439 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
8. Joshua YoungbloodWR10 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 398th of 439 WRs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  54354372nd of 130Roster talent: 543, 72nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16916966th of 130Recruiting: 169, 66th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  53%53%81st of 130Returning production: 53%, 81st of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.0+6.045th of 130SP+ rating: +6.0, 45th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs OUQ4 9:01 4th & 1 at KSU 44, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.6 pts
2. vs WVUQ4 8:47 4th & 12 at WVU 36, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.9 pts
3. vs TCUQ3 11:30 4th & 3 at TCU 3, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. vs WVUQ2 0:43 4th & 1 at WVU 15, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. vs TCUQ4 14:52 4th & 3 at KSU 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at OKSTQ2 5:35 4th & 2 at OKST 28, down 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at OKSTQ3 9:28 4th & 2 at OKST 48, down 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at OKSTQ1 3:57 4th & 1 at KSU 39, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

24th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NICH
2. W

   BGSU
3. W

   MSST
4. L

   OKST
5. L

   BAY
6. W

   TCU
7. W

   OU
8. W

   KU
9. L

   TEX
10. L

    WVU
11. W

    TTU
12. W

    ISU
13. L

    NAVY

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Kansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.55
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.77

Game by game

• NICHW 49-14 vs NICH92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• BGSUW 52-0 vs BGSU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• MSSTW 31-24 at MSST30% → 91%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +48, Clock +4
• OKSTL 13-26 at OKST40% → 2%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −34, Possession & field position −1
• BAYL 12-31 vs BAY47% → 1%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −51, Clock −1
• TCUW 24-17 vs TCU35% → 93%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position +2
• OUW 48-41 vs OU6% → 96%Before kickoff −44 · On the field +91: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +3
• KUW 38-10 at KU64% → 100%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +40, Clock +1
• TEXL 24-27 at TEX25% → 6%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −27, Possession & field position +1
• WVUL 20-24 vs WVU83% → 6%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −77: Scoreboard −55, Clock −4
• TTUW 30-27 at TTU46% → 88%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +45, Clock +3
• ISUW 27-17 vs ISU36% → 96%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +43, Possession & field position −1
• NAVYL 17-20 vs NAVY48% → 7%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Kansas State's side.

Closest call

KSU 38-35 OU (2020) - Kansas State dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.