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NAVY

Navy 20 at Kansas State 17

KSU
2019 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2019 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:23 · Devin Anctil punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the Navy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Pregame prior−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:15: Chance Warren run for 20 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:07: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 9 yds to the KanSt 30 — KSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:14: Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +34.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:05: Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25 — NAVY win probability +12.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +32.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:04KSU 4th & 4 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:26NAVY 4th & 3 at KSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:13NAVY 4th & 28 at NAVY 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:42NAVY 4th & 1 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:01KSU 4th & 1 at NAVY 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−2.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−8.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27KSU 4th & 13 at NAVY 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:10KSU 4th & 1 at NAVY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−4.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:47NAVY 4th & 22 at KSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:26NAVY 4th & 2 at KSU 21, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−1.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−10.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:15NAVY 4th & 3 at KSU 46, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%
    23% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:31NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:15NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:14KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:4748% → 49%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
47.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
47.6%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
47.8%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
48.0%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
48.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Lenners) to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+9
48.2%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
48.6%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+2
48.6%
Harry Trotter run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
48.6%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:2052% → 52%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
48.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
48.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
48.2%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 5 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
48.0%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
48.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
48.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 9 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
47.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 25 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
47.8%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
47.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
48.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
48.4%
Bijan Nichols 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4349% → 47%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
48.6%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
48.6%
Malik Knowles run for 2 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-4
47.5%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Jackson Perkins for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD
9 plays · -7 yds · 4:0552% → 45%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
47.5%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
48.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
47.2%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (David Forney) to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-15
47.7%
NAVY Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 29
OWN 17
0
47.9%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for no gain to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 29
OWN 17
+1
48.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 28
OWN 18
+66
55.3%
Owen White punt for 48 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 66 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3346% → 55%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
53.5%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 11 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
52.9%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
53.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
53.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 1
50
+23
53.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 23 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
51.6%
Myles Fells run for no gain to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
44.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 27 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 6:4548% → 51%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
47.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+14
49.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
50
+11
49.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 11 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
49.1%
Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+9
49.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 9 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
50.1%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
50.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Logan Long for 4 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
48.9%
Phillip Brooks run for 4 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+1
45.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
48.3%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-2
47.9%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
44.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
51.3%
Blake Lynch 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 2:0952% → 50%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
48.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-1
48.4%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+5
49.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jude Hydrick) to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
47.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 5 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
47.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-4
46.2%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
48.7%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
50.5%
Owen White punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
53.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3550% → 67%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.6%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
48.8%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Billy Honaker) to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
49.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 29 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
46.3%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
46.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
46.3%
Perry, Malcolm rush for no gain to the KANSASST33, PENALTY KANSASST holding 10 yards to the KANSASST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
46.1%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
46.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
32.9%
Chance Warren run for 20 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · -26 yds · 4:1842% → 35%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
41.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
41.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
41.6%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-14
40.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the Navy 30 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyler Mitchell) to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-18
41.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the KanSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KanStSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 28
OWN 37
+4
36.9%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 24
OWN 41
-7
36.1%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 34 Skylar Thompson fumbled, recovered by KanSt Scott Frantz , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 31
OWN 34
+54
34.5%
Devin Anctil punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the KANSASST 22 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:2767% → 70%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
33.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+10
33.1%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 10 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
32.4%
CJ Williams run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+1
28.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
28.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+9
27.9%
Myles Fells run for 9 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
26.9%
NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Billy Honaker) to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+2
27.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 18
OPP 41
-4
27.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 22
OPP 45
0
28.1%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
30.0%
Owen White punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:2232% → 28%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.6%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
30.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
30.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Adam Holtorf) to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
29.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 64 yds, downed at the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:4073% → 84%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
26.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+59
26.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 59 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
20.9%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Peter Nestrowitz) to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+3
19.3%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 3 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+9
18.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
17.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
15.6%
Bijan Nichols 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:5327% → 68%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
26.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 9 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+7
28.6%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
25.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 15 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
28.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 42 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
32.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:0451% → 95%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.3%
CJ Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
49.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
48.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
44.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
43.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
43.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
44.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
42.5%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+41
45.9%
CJ Williams pass complete to Chance Warren for 41 yds to the KanSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
38.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the KanSt 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Navy Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
38.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
5.1%
Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:14
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
+34.8
FG · Q4 0:01
Bijan Nichols 23 yd FG GOOD
-32.5
TD · Q3 10:15
Chance Warren run for 20 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com