Kansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2477th
  Defense+0.1528th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.1%78th
  Defense37.8%70th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2135th
  Defense+1.436th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2486th
  Defense+0.1718th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2555th
  Defense+0.1845th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.5%72nd
  Defense41.1%84th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.4%91st
  Defense31.8%31st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3680th
  Defense3.2516th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.5%75th
  Defense17.1%35th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense9.3%96th
  Defense19.8%85th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NICH
2. W
   WSU
3. W
   TULN
4. L
   CIN
5. L
   HOU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas State.

Players, 2026

1. Avery JohnsonQB142 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 45th of 192 QBs
   0.36WAR0.16 to 0.58
2. Rodney Fields Jr.RB44 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 90th of 320 RBs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.13
3. Joe JacksonRB39 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 162nd of 320 RBs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
4. Josh ManningWR21 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 157th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
5. Garrett OakleyTE18 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 21st of 164 TEs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.08
6. Jaron TibbsWR20 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 164th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
7. Luis RodriguezPK5 plays · +0.273 pts/play · 46th of 82 kickers
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.04
8. Brandon WhiteWR19 plays · +0.057 pts/play · 271st of 364 WRs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  71971947th of 138Roster talent: 719, 47th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20520543rd of 138Recruiting: 205, 43rd of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  71%71%21st of 136Returning production: 71%, 21st of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.0+11.031st of 138SP+ rating so far: +11.0, 31st of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.02 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TULNQ4 14:53 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
2. vs HOUQ2 7:04 4th & 4 at HOU 48, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
3. at CINQ1 4:32 4th & 2 at CIN 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. vs WSUQ3 4:13 4th & 7 at WSU 37, up 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. vs HOUQ2 1:26 4th & 4 at KSU 43, down 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
6. vs WSUQ3 10:21 4th & 4 at WSU 13, up 17Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
7. vs WSUQ1 6:00 4th & 2 at WSU 13, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
8. vs WSUQ2 11:29 4th & 8 at WSU 31, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

125th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NICH
2. W

   WSU
3. W

   TULN
4. L

   CIN
5. L

   HOU

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Kansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.54
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.38

Game by game

• NICHW 71-3 vs NICH99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• WSUW 34-7 vs WSU88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +16
• TULNW 31-20 vs TULN92% → 98%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +13, Timeouts +1
• CINL 26-31 at CIN71% → 11%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −29, Possession & field position −4
• HOUL 16-35 vs HOU57% → 0%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Kansas State's side.

Closest call

KSU 38-35 OU (2020) - Kansas State dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.