Kansas State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0939th
  Defense+0.2023rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense37.5%11th
  Defense43.7%44th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.4093rd
  Defense+1.3423rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0644th
  Defense+0.1523rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1344th
  Defense+0.2532nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.1%15th
  Defense48.3%48th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.3%18th
  Defense33.7%35th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.5715th
  Defense2.8063rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense23.5%17th
  Defense22.0%72nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.2%28th
  Defense16.8%53rd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ARST
2. W
   OU
3. W
   TTU
4. W
   TCU
5. W
   KU
6. L
   WVU
7. L
   OKST
8. L
   ISU
9. L
   BAY
10. L
    TEX

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas State.

Players, 2020

1. Deuce VaughnRB141 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 35th of 338 RBs
   0.45WAR0.34 to 0.54
2. Will HowardQB209 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 82nd of 212 QBs
   0.40WAR−0.05 to 0.87
3. Skylar ThompsonQB78 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 110th of 212 QBs
   0.28WAR0.14 to 0.42
4. Harry TrotterRB71 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 174th of 338 RBs
   0.19WAR0.14 to 0.24
5. Blake LynchPK17 plays · +0.217 pts/play · 10th of 97 kickers
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10
6. Chabastin TaylorWR32 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 227th of 409 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.10
7. Malik KnowlesWR28 plays · +0.122 pts/play · 240th of 409 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
8. Phillip BrooksWR26 plays · +0.120 pts/play · 254th of 409 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  56156168th of 127Roster talent: 561, 68th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17617664th of 127Recruiting: 176, 64th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  75%75%38th of 127Returning production: 75%, 38th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +2.0+2.056th of 127SP+ rating: +2.0, 56th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ARSTQ4 2:30 4th & 2 at ARST 17, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−5.7 pts
2. at OUQ4 4:32 4th & 4 at OU 32, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
3. at BAYQ2 13:02 4th & 2 at BAY 2, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. at TCUQ4 1:05 4th & 1 at TCU 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. at BAYQ3 11:59 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs TTUQ4 15:00 4th & 4 at KSU 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs KUQ2 6:13 4th & 2 at KU 3, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at BAYQ2 0:45 4th & 3 at BAY 48, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

48th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ARST
2. W

   OU
3. W

   TTU
4. W

   TCU
5. W

   KU
6. L

   WVU
7. L

   OKST
8. L

   ISU
9. L

   BAY
10. L

    TEX

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Kansas State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.37
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.74

Game by game

• ARSTL 31-35 vs ARST83% → 18%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −39, Clock −4
• OUW 38-35 at OU4% → 95%Before kickoff −46 · On the field +91: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3
• TTUW 31-21 vs TTU54% → 97%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +2
• TCUW 21-14 at TCU21% → 88%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +47, Clock +4
• KUW 55-14 vs KU90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
• WVUL 10-37 at WVU32% → 0%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −34
• OKSTL 18-20 vs OKST16% → 16%Before kickoff −34 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −25, Clock −3
• ISUL 0-45 at ISU17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −20
• BAYL 31-32 at BAY35% → 6%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −2
• TEXL 31-69 vs TEX26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −32

Points of win probability, from Kansas State's side.

Closest call

KSU 38-35 OU (2020) - Kansas State dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.