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KSU

Kansas State 31 at Baylor 32

BAY
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · John Mayers 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:57: Will Howard run for 24 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +22.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:51: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 8 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +23.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 8:59: Deuce Vaughn run for 38 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +24.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:16: Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +28.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: John Mayers 30 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +64.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:51BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:07BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:02KSU 4th & 2 at BAY 2, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−6.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:02BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:31BAY 4th & 1 at KSU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−1.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:01BAY 4th & 14 at KSU 30, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45KSU 4th & 3 at BAY 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:59BAY 4th & 2 at KSU 11, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:59KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:16KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.9%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:16KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−4.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:16KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−4.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00BAY 4th & 9 at KSU 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−50.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−60.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:04BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:51KSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:07KSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:16BAY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:57KSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:51BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:59KSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:16BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
65.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-32
65.5%
Will Howard pass intercepted JT Woods return for 32 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:0766% → 66%
Q1 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
65.5%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 12Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
65.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
65.3%
Malik Knowles run for 75 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Drew Wiley for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
65.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 11 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
65.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Ben Sims, broken up by Daniel GreenSimilar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
65.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Drew Wiley) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
65.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-2
65.3%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Cody Fletcher for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+5
65.2%
Brewer,Charlie sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BU43 (Hubert, Wyatt), PENALTY KSU offside defense (Hubert, Wyatt) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
50
-5
65.3%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Wyatt Hubert for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
65.1%
TEAM punt, downed at the KanSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
64.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Harry Trotter for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Will Howard run for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
65.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
65.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 38 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for no gain to the Bayl 35 Trestan Ebner fumbled, recovered by KanSt Wayne JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:2837% → 42%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
63.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+5
63.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
63.4%
Harry Trotter run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+9
63.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
63.4%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the Bayl 5Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
63.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
59.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Cody Fletcher and Daniel Green for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
58.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+23
58.7%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds BAYLOR Penalty, kick catching interference (Mark Milton) to the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:3343% → 47%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
57.3%
Harry Trotter run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
57.3%
Malik Knowles run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+21
57.5%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, player disqualification (JT Woods) to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
57.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
57.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
55.8%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
55.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
55.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
55.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Briley Moore for 6 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
53.5%
Blake Lynch 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
54.9%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
54.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
54.0%
Issac Power punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
52.0%
Harry Trotter run for 3 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-3
51.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Nick Lenners for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+16
52.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 16 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
51.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
51.6%
Will Howard pass intercepted Christian Morgan return for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 5:3051% → 45%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
51.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
51.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 9 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+20
51.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 20 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
52.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
53.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
52.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+4
51.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
53.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Wyatt Hubert for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-5
53.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+8
53.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 8 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-5
52.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 13
OPP 29
-1
51.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+4
44.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0656% → 61%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+17
44.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 17 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
43.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
43.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-1
42.8%
Will Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+13
39.2%
Jack Blumer punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 20 KANSAS ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.7%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
41.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 16 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
43.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Blake Bedier) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
42.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0140% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
40.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.2%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+44
41.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 44 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
44.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 8 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
44.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by Jahron McPhersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
43.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
43.6%
John Mayers 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
39.3%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
40.1%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
40.8%
Ty Zentner punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:4841% → 59%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
41.0%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
42.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
43.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 35 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
46.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the KanSt 12 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Fleeks) to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-1
45.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+23
58.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
54.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
54.4%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
51.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Noah Johnson) to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
53.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 5 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
52.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce Vaughn, broken up by William Bradley-KingSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
55.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2153% → 50%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
53.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
53.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
51.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 16 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
57.1%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
55.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-6
55.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Jahron McPherson for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
49.9%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds, downed at the KanSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:5153% → 76%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+49
46.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Briley Moore for 49 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
23.9%
Will Howard run for 24 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0629% → 58%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
29.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
28.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
29.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+12
30.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 12 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
32.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 29 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
34.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Ross Elder) to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 8 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5259% → 85%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
40.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
40.6%
Harry Trotter run for 8 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
39.7%
Harry Trotter run for 11 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
15.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 38 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:4322% → 52%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
22.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+20
23.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
26.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-15
26.0%
Brewer,Charlie rush for loss of 2 yards to the KSU27 (Parker, AJ), PENALTY BU illegal block (Holmes, Gavin) 15 yards to the KSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 21
OPP 40
+7
21.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 7 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+19
21.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 6 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (Khalid Duke) to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
26.0%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 16Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
25.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+8
24.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 8 yds to the KanSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
32.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+2
32.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
34.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
36.6%
Ty Zentner punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 2:3243% → 94%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
43.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
46.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 6 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
46.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 10 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
49.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 21 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
52.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 8 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
52.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
49.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the KanSt 11Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-3
49.8%
John Lovett run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+2
37.0%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
94.0%
John Mayers 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
John Mayers 30 yd FG GOOD
+64.8
TD · Q4 4:16
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
+28.2
TD · Q4 8:59
Deuce Vaughn run for 38 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
-24.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com