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KSU

Kansas State 31 at Mississippi State 24

MSST
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:12 · Devin Anctil punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense−3.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:39: Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +9.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 35 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +15.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 4:47: Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +17.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:36: Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Knowles return for 100 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +25.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 5:37: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +29.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:23MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41KSU 4th & 1 at MSST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23KSU 4th & 3 at MSST 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:17MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:12KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:29KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:42KSU 4th & 17 at KSU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:58MSST 4th & 18 at MSST 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−5.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:50MSST 4th & 6 at KSU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:24MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−2.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:21KSU 4th & 17 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−6.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:55MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 16, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:35MSST 4th & 16 at KSU 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:30KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 13:31KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:39MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:09MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:47MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:36KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:37KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2170% → 70%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
70.0%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+13
69.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
69.8%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
69.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
69.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+20
69.6%
Tucker Day punt for 49 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 20 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3431% → 32%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
69.5%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
69.2%
Skylar Thompson run for 16 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
69.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 12 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
68.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Kaltmayer) to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+6
68.8%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
68.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
68.5%
Malik Knowles run for 7 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
68.5%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:0169% → 69%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+21
68.9%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
69.2%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Kyle Ball for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+17
68.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 17 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
69.4%
Tommy Stevens pass intercepted Denzel Goolsby return for 16 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:4233% → 35%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
67.5%
Harry Trotter run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
67.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+7
67.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
67.0%
Harry Trotter run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+9
66.3%
Harry Trotter run for 9 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
66.1%
Harry Trotter run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
65.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+6
66.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 6 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
65.4%
Blake Lynch 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5466% → 64%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+25
64.4%
Tucker Day punt for 44 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 25 yds to the MISSSTATE 49 KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3136% → 43%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
64.5%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
64.3%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-5
63.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+23
64.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 23 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
62.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Fabien Lovett) to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
62.2%
Jordon Brown run for 12 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.4%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:3458% → 54%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
57.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (JaVonta Payton) to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+1
57.0%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 19
OWN 19
-9
56.1%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Trey Dishon for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 28
OWN 10
+8
55.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 8 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
54.3%
Tucker Day punt for 31 yds , Jordon Brown returns for no gain to the MisSt 49 Jordon Brown fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:5157% → 62%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
56.7%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
56.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
56.3%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+22
55.9%
Kylin Hill run for 22 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
56.3%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
55.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+9
53.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the KanSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
53.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
53.1%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 2Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1741% → 40%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
58.2%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
58.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
59.6%
Devin Anctil punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4559% → 57%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
59.2%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
58.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+9
57.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 Tommy Stevens fumbled, recovered by KanSt Daniel Green , return for 9 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3446% → 58%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
54.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
54.2%
Jordon Brown run for 17 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
52.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+7
52.7%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 0:2244% → 60%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
43.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
44.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Dontea Jones for 12 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
59.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 35 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
54.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1544% → 43%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
56.5%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+15
56.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 15 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
53.6%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
54.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
56.9%
Devin Anctil punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4556% → 55%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
56.4%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
56.0%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
54.5%
Tommy Stevens pass intercepted AJ Parker return for 23 yds to the MisSt 21 AJ Parker fumbled, recovered by MisSt Darryl Williams , return for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 6:3456% → 76%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
55.9%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
55.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+26
54.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
50
+11
59.3%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
59.4%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
60.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST down Dontea Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.4%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
60.2%
Garrett Shrader run for 10 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
60.1%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
59.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+9
57.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the KanSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5630% → 28%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
69.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
70.1%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
71.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 18Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
71.6%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+1
72.4%
Devin Anctil punt for 57 yds , Malik Dear returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 26 Malik Dear fumbled, recovered by MisSt Malik DearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4473% → 70%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
72.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaquarius Landrews) to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 23
OWN 13
+1
72.1%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 22
OWN 14
0
71.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 22
OWN 14
+4
70.6%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 18
OWN 18
+26
69.8%
Tucker Day punt for 26 yds , Seth Porter returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 45 Seth Porter fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5675% → 84%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
74.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 12 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
75.9%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.9%
Lee Witherspoon run for no gain to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
76.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
75.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
84.3%
Jace Christmann 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5961% → 57%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
60.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
60.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
58.4%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
57.0%
Tucker Day punt for 55 yds, downed at the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5644% → 43%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
55.6%
Wykeen Gill run for 3 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+24
54.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Nick Lenners for 24 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
50.7%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
50.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-10
50.7%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Brian Cole II for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Skylar Thompson fumbled, recovered by KanSt Nick Kaltmayer , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 17
50
0
56.7%
Devin Anctil punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brian Cole II at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1559% → 56%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
58.8%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
59.1%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
56.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
55.5%
Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 3:1050% → 85%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
49.8%
Harry Trotter run for 2 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+20
49.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 20 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
46.9%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
45.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
44.3%
Malik Knowles run for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
14.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:4523% → 18%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
23.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
24.1%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+16
25.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 16 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
28.5%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
30.4%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
28.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-5
25.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 16
OPP 35
0
22.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 16
OPP 35
+15
18.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 15 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:5789% → 94%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
11.2%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+19
9.7%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
8.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
50
-1
7.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-1
5.1%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
5.6%
Devin Anctil punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:168% → 9%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
8.3%
Garrett Shrader run for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
9.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40 Kylin HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:37
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
-29.6
TD · Q4 14:36
Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Knowles return for 100 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
-25.4
TD · Q3 4:47
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com