2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:31 · Devin Anctil punt for 55 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 11 yds to the Okla 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:00: Gabe Brkic 50 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 3:35: Reeves Mundschau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joshua Youngblood at the KanSt 27 — OU win probability +19.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:01: Devin Anctil punt for 46 yds, downed at the Okla 10 — KSU win probability +27.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:31: Devin Anctil punt for 55 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 11 yds to the Okla 28 — KSU win probability +32.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:45: Gabe Brkic 39 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +7.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
- Q1 13:21OU 4th & 3 at KSU 27, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snapGo for it91.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call91.4%−0.162% to makePunt91.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:24KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q2 7:26OU 4th & 2 at KSU 8, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.7%54% to convertField goalTheir call83.0%−0.690% to makePunt80.1%−3.6average punt
- Q2 3:30KSU 4th & 6 at OU 34, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.0%40% to convertField goal16.8%−0.247% to makePunt16.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:22KSU 4th & 6 at OU 17, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.438% to convertField goalTheir call17.7%80% to makePunt14.0%−3.7average punt
- Q3 11:01KSU 4th & 7 at OU 19, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.935% to convertField goalTheir call33.9%77% to makePunt25.6%−8.3average punt
- Q3 9:25OU 4th & 4 at OU 27, down 4Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it60.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:35OU 4th & 9 at OU 38, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it56.9%−2.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.9%average punt
- Q4 9:01KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 44, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it26.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%−4.6average punt
- Q4 4:31KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 28, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it52.5%−4.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.4%average punt
- Q4 1:45OU 4th & 3 at KSU 22, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call6.0%−1.172% to makePunt4.4%−2.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:21OU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:58OU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:12KSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.2%97% to makeGo for two15.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1FG6 plays · 40 yds · 1:0994% → 94%
KSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:367% → 7%
Q1 11:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
6.9%
Devin Anctil punt for 59 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 11 yds to the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5093% → 93%
OUDrive 4TD8 plays · 88 yds · 2:0291% → 92%
Q1 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+30
10.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 30 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+28
9.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD13 plays · 72 yds · 4:189% → 13%
Q1 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
9.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jax Dineen for 5 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+10
9.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-4
10.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 17Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+13
10.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 13 yds to the Okla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Parnell Motley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2487% → 88%
KSUDrive 7FG12 plays · 67 yds · 5:4813% → 20%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
13.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 15 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
14.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 3 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
15.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Blaise Gammon for 7 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+13
15.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 13 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
17.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Samuel Wheeler for 7 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-3
18.0%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 17 Skylar Thompson fumbled, recovered by KanStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8FG3 plays · 46 yds · 0:3283% → 85%
KSUDrive 9INT TD3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1019% → 18%
OUDrive 10TD7 plays · 14 yds · 0:1087% → 77%
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF11 plays · 27 yds · 3:2927% → 35%
Q3 12:25
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+21
28.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 21 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1567% → 67%
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
33.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 1 yd to the Okla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT TD4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2936% → 39%
KSUDrive 14TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:3540% → 42%
OUDrive 15TD6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5766% → 81%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
34.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+9
36.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Trey Sermon for 9 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
19.0%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joshua Youngblood at the KanSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT TD11 plays · 1 yds · 5:2121% → 30%
Q3 2:25
2ND & 23
OWN 14
+10
20.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 10 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+23
20.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jordon Brown for 23 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
25.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 5 yds to the Okla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
18.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 70 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1424% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT TD10 plays · 19 yds · 3:0950% → 55%
Q4 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+26
49.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Lee Morris for 26 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
46.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Trey Sermon for 6 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
45.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 10 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+13
46.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 13 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jalen Hurts pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD6 plays · 90 yds · 0:4458% → 91%
Q4 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
90.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 55 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 11 yds to the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT13 plays · 3 yds · 2:309% → 12%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
91.1%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Elijah Sullivan for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 37Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+13
94.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
50
+21
95.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Lee Morris for 21 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
95.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the KanSt 24 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+12
95.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 12 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22FG4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0997% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:31
Devin Anctil punt for 55 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 11 yds to the Okla 28
+32.9
TD · Q4 9:01
Devin Anctil punt for 46 yds, downed at the Okla 10
+27.5
TD · Q3 3:35
Reeves Mundschau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joshua Youngblood at the KanSt 27
-19.3