2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:00: Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 15 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +2.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:43: Blake Lynch 33 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 7:56: James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:07: Casey Legg 51 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +4.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:27: Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Wheaton for 50 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +32.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q1 4:43KSU 4th & 4 at WVU 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snapGo for it79.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call79.7%−0.193% to makePunt78.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 14:05WVU 4th & 26 at WVU 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it22.8%−1.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q2 11:43KSU 4th & 8 at WVU 35, down 4Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.7%34% to convertField goal74.6%−0.145% to makePuntTheir call74.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:33WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 23, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it28.0%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.7%average punt
- Q2 0:43KSU 4th & 1 at WVU 15, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snapGo for it68.0%71% to convertField goalTheir call67.0%−1.083% to makePunt61.3%−6.7average punt
- Q3 7:56WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 34, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it23.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%−1.4average punt
- Q3 6:32KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 27, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snapGo for it75.4%−3.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q4 14:07WVU 4th & 26 at KSU 34, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it19.1%−3.07% to convertField goalTheir call22.1%47% to makePunt20.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 14:03KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it73.0%−1.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.4%average punt
- Q4 8:47KSU 4th & 12 at WVU 36, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 43.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.0%−1.924% to convertField goal42.9%42% to makePunt40.3%−2.6average punt
- Q4 8:39WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 36, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snapGo for it57.7%−4.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.1%average punt
- Q4 7:38KSU 4th & 22 at KSU 9, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it29.5%−4.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q4 3:33WVU 4th & 11 at KSU 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it73.8%−1.227% to convertField goal72.4%−2.625% to makePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q4 2:53KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.2%−4.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:37KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.6%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:05WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.6%97% to makeGo for two18.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.2%97% to makeGo for two24.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:56KSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.4%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:27WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.5%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
83.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 4 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD1 play · 68 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
83.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 68 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3217% → 18%
Q1 13:37
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+32
83.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 32 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
82.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 8 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
81.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 19 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG14 plays · 72 yds · 6:1882% → 81%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
82.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 35 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
82.6%
Gilbert, James rush for 2 yards to the WVU28 (Norwood, Josh), PENALTY KS holding (Mitchell, Tyler) 10 yards to the WVU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+21
81.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 21 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
81.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 4 yds to the WVirg 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5TD14 plays · 63 yds · 4:3919% → 25%
Q1 4:39
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
79.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 9 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-8
80.3%
Jarret Doege sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 24Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+12
80.2%
Legg, Casey field goal attempt from 41 MISSED - wide right,, clock 00:51, PENALTY KS personal foul (Dishon, Trey) 12 yards to the KS12, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+15
75.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 15 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
WVUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
75.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 12 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-21
74.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 49 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sam James) to the WVirg 36Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 26
OWN 41
0
76.6%
Josh Growden punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 44 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 11:43
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+32
74.4%
James Gilbert run for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
50
+6
76.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to James Gilbert for 6 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+16
74.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 16 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
76.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Logan Long for 1 yd to the WVirg 35Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
76.2%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton Schoen, broken up by Hakeem BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
71.5%
Josh Growden punt for 46 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KanSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10FG14 plays · 54 yds · 4:4070% → 72%
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
71.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Nick Lenners for 5 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+15
71.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 15 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
70.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jordon Brown for 4 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11MISSED FG8 plays · 52 yds · 0:4132% → 37%
KSUDrive 12TD14 plays · 70 yds · 7:0470% → 82%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
71.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to James Gilbert for 9 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+14
72.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 14 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
72.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to James Gilbert for 11 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
73.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 7 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-6
73.6%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Sean Mahone for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+9
72.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 9 yds to the WVirg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 23
+2
72.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Harry Trotter for 2 yds to the WVirg 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+16
70.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 16 yds to the WVirg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
73.6%
Skylar Thompson run for 2 yds to the WVirg 3 Skylar Thompson fumbled, forced by Darius Stills,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 7:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
78.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 3 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 9 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
78.1%
Josh Growden punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
80.4%
Brown, Jordon rush for no gain to the KS37 (Smith, Tykee), PENALTY KS holding (Dineen, Jax) 10 yards to the KS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 18
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua Youngblood, broken up by Shea CampbellSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
78.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Malik Knowles, broken up by Kerry Martin Jr.Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+7
77.5%
Devin Anctil punt for 43 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 7 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15FG15 plays · 29 yds · 4:5824% → 25%
Q3 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+13
75.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 13 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+21
75.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 21 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+8
71.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 8 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-10
71.8%
Doege, Jarret pass complete to McKoy, Kennedy for 3 yards to the KS15 (Sullivan, E.), PENALTY WVU holding (Behrndt, Chase) 10 yards to the KS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 29
-10
79.6%
Doege, Jarret pass complete to James, Sam for 14 yards to the KS15 (Neil Jr., W.), PENALTY WVU holding (McKivitz, C.) 10 yards to the KS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 31
OPP 39
+5
80.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 5 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17TD5 plays · 53 yds · 1:4630% → 59%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
69.8%
Doege, Jarret pass incomplete to James, Sam, PENALTY KS pass interference (Goolsby, Denzel) 15 yards to the KS38, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
69.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 17
OPP 45
-5
73.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Chase Behrndt) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 22
50
+50
41.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Wheaton for 50 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 2:4048% → 42%
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
47.6%
Skylar Thompson run for 15 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Exree Loe) to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
42.4%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua Youngblood, broken up by Keith Washington Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 62%
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
34.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for no gain to the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0042% → 37%
WVUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0275% → 76%
Q4 3:33
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+5
21.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 5 yds to the KanSt 40 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-5
23.1%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (Josh Growden) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
24.3%
Josh Growden punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22INT14 plays · 62 yds · 2:1032% → 33%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
32.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jordon Brown for 10 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
33.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jordon Brown for 5 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
32.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
34.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Landry Weber, broken up by Exree LoeSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
33.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jordon Brown for 4 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+9
33.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jordon Brown for 9 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
39.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 15 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
33.3%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Hakeem Bailey return for no gain to the WVirg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:27
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Wheaton for 50 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)
-32
TD · Q3 7:56
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
+8.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-6.5