2021 · TaxAct Texas Bowl · Jan 4, 2022 · NRG Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreLSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 81 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:13: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 25 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:39: Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:01: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:20: Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 23 yds for a TD (Preston Stafford KICK) — LSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:46: Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:50KSU 4th & 3 at LSU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.8%53% to convertField goal73.7%−0.149% to makePunt73.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:55LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.0%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%average punt
- Q1 0:36KSU 4th & 2 at LSU 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.7%57% to convertField goal75.2%−0.560% to makePunt73.4%−2.3average punt
- Q2 0:37LSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%57% to convertField goal7.7%−<0.149% to makePunt6.6%−1.1average punt
- Q3 12:39LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it14.3%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q3 5:14LSU 4th & 1 at KSU 44, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%70% to convertField goal2.4%−1.627% to makePunt2.9%−1.1average punt
- Q3 2:09KSU 4th & 30 at LSU 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.57% to convertField goal97.2%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 13:26LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:35LSU 4th & 12 at KSU 15, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.121% to convertField goal0.1%83% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:48KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 42, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:13KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:39KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.0%97% to makeGo for two81.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:01KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20LSU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.5%97% to makeGo for two13.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:46KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:56KSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:15KSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:35LSU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKSUDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2771% → 73%
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
70.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 6 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+5
70.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 5 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+24
70.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 24 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+12
70.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 12 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+8
70.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 8 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
72.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 25 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 3:0528% → 27%
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
71.8%
Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-14
72.4%
Kirklin, Jontre rush for 5 yards to the LSU33, PENALTY LSU personal foul (Ingram, Ed) 14 yards to the LSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Avery Atkins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD20 plays · 71 yds · 9:1073% → 80%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
73.0%
Skylar Thompson sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+15
72.5%
Thompson, Skylar pass incomplete to Warner, Kade, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Cage, Pig) 15 yards to the LSU49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+12
73.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 12 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+8
73.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Kade Warner for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
74.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+9
74.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4INT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1922% → 21%
KSUDrive 5TD6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1981% → 90%
LSUDrive 6TD17 plays · 75 yds · 6:4112% → 18%
KSUDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 19 yds · 0:1186% → 88%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+24
86.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Eric Hommel for 24 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0616% → 15%
Q3 12:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+19
85.1%
Avery Atkins punt for 48 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 19 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1487% → 96%
LSUDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 3:065% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 2:5697% → 97%
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+34
95.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 34 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-13
96.0%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Pig Cage for a loss of 13 yards to the LSU 33 KANSAS ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Skylar Thompson) to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 23
OPP 33
+9
96.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 9 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 19
OPP 29
+9
97.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Kade Warner for 9 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 10
OPP 20
-15
97.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12INT4 plays · 31 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
97.4%
Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
97.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Russ Yeast) to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 6
50
-32
97.6%
Jontre Kirklin pass intercepted Ross Elder return for 32 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13TD3 plays · 55 yds · 0:4598% → 100%
LSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.8%
Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Malik Nabers for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD6 plays · 70 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:01
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
99.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:270% → 0%
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.9%
Malik Nabers run for 13 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
Hilton Jr., Chris rush for 12 yards to the KANSASST1, PENALTY LSU illegal motion (Thomas Jr., Brian) 5 yards to the KANSASST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds for a TD (Preston Stafford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 87 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:01
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 0:20
Jontre Kirklin pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 23 yds for a TD (Preston Stafford KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q3 8:46
Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK)
+7.3