Try the model
NEV

Nevada 17 at Kansas State 38

KSU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:22 · Ty Zentner punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.5Pregame prior−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:08: Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +4.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:42: Joe Ervin run for 22 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK) — KSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:08: Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +17.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK) — KSU win probability +22.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:12: Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK) — KSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:05NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22KSU 4th & 6 at NEV 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:39KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:08NEV 4th & 1 at KSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:08KSU 4th & 14 at NEV 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:43NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:35NEV 4th & 20 at KSU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−3.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:15KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:15NEV 4th & 1 at KSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−4.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:21NEV 4th & 4 at KSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−2.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:23NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:23NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:16KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:08NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:42KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:08NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:12KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:12KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4445% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.9%
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
45.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 68 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:0755% → 53%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
45.4%
PENALTY NEV Delay Of Game 5 yards from NEV12 to NEV07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+2
45.5%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+2
45.5%
run for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+6
45.5%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
47.0%
Julian Diaz punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:4347% → 49%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
46.9%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Knowles,Malik) 5 yards from KSU31 to KSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+9
46.9%
Will Howard run for 9 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
46.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 6 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
47.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
47.1%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
47.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.2%
Joe Ervin run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
47.2%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
47.1%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
49.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:5051% → 48%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
49.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
49.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
49.1%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
49.0%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
49.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 8 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
48.6%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
51.7%
Julian Diaz punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5352% → 52%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
52.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
52.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 38Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
51.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+13
52.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 47 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 13 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:3148% → 53%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
52.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
52.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+12
52.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+55
51.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 55 yds to the KANSASST 2 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.1%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.9%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2649% → 58%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.7%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Rivas,Josh) 5 yards from KSU25 to KSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
48.6%
Joe Ervin run for 12 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
49.6%
Jaren Lewis pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 4 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
49.3%
Lewis,Jaren pass incomplete to Knowles,Malik PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Robins,Berdale) 12 yards from KSU36 to KSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
50.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
50.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
50.8%
Malik Knowles run for 6 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
50.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
50.8%
Jaren Lewis pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
57.5%
Joe Ervin run for 22 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8INT
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:5044% → 40%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
55.9%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
55.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+8
56.6%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+3
55.5%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
55.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
55.4%
Devonte Lee run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
54.8%
Carson Strong sacked by Reggie Stubblefield for a loss of 9 yards to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+5
56.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 5 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 14
OWN 37
-15
59.8%
Carson Strong pass intercepted KANSAS ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 14
OWN 37
-15
59.8%
Carson Strong pass intercepted KANSAS ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 4:3762% → 67%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
61.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
62.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+8
62.0%
Joe Ervin run for 8 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
62.2%
Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
62.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
62.2%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Panzer,Hadley) 5 yards from NEV15 to NEV20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+2
62.2%
Jaren Lewis pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
62.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+1
64.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 14
OPP 19
+37
66.9%
Taiten Winkel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:2531% → 31%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
68.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
68.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
66.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
66.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
68.8%
Julian Diaz punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0470% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
70.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.0%
Zentner,Ty kickoff 65 yards to the NEV00 Bell,Jamaal return 17 yards to the NEV17 (Allen,Nick) PENALTY KSU Offside (Allen,Nick) 5 yards from KSU35 to KSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:0632% → 33%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 15
OWN 19
0
67.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for no gain to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-5
67.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 20
OWN 14
+23
68.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 23 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
66.5%
Tory Horton pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 44 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
63.4%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
63.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-15
65.3%
PENALTY NEV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from KSU20 to KSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 26
OPP 35
+6
66.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 6 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
67.5%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Turner,Cole broken up by Stubblefield,Reggie PENALTY NEV Illegal Formation 5 yards from NEV24 to NEV19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 20
OPP 29
+46
67.4%
Brandon Talton 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2067% → 68%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.2%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
66.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Nick LennersSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
65.6%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
67.5%
Ty Zentner punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:0737% → 54%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
63.3%
Carson Strong run for 5 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
62.7%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the KanSt 36Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
63.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
67.8%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
64.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
63.9%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
63.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
64.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 5 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
46.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1455% → 85%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
54.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 16 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
57.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+19
59.3%
Will Howard run for 19 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
61.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 14 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
61.4%
Will Howard run for 12 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Sinnott) to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 8
OPP 17
+6
63.0%
Will Howard run for 6 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
85.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:3324% → 22%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
75.0%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Nunez,Jacob) 5 yards from NEV34 to NEV29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
76.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 24 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
71.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
71.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
72.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+3
77.8%
Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 6:0986% → 97%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
85.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+12
86.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
86.4%
Joe Ervin run for 7 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+3
86.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
86.9%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+11
86.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 11 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
86.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
87.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 9 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+8
87.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
87.1%
Joe Ervin run for 3 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.9%
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:494% → 4%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:1197% → 100%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
97.2%
Joe Ervin run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
97.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
97.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
97.5%
Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+6
97.5%
Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.5%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the Nevad 7Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.7%
Joe Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
Ervin,Joe rush for 1 yard loss to the NEV02 (Touray,Lamin) PENALTY NEV Illegal Substitution. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 13 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-8
99.7%
Carson Strong sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q3 4:08
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q4 6:12
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com