2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:36 · Will Howard pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:22: Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 71 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg PAT MISSED) — WVU win probability +4.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:28: Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:55: Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 5 yds for a TD, (G. Greene Run For Two-point Conversion) — WVU win probability +4.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:24: Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 43 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK) — KSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:30: Garrett Greene 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — WVU win probability +4.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:51WVU 4th & 4 at KSU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.8%48% to convertField goal30.6%−0.232% to makePunt30.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:31WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 34, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:46KSU 4th & 8 at WVU 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snapGo for it72.3%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call72.6%60% to makePunt70.2%−2.4average punt
- Q2 1:20WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 22, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snapGo for it22.0%−1.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.3%average punt
- Q2 0:01KSU 4th & 18 at WVU 35, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snapGo for it77.0%−1.513% to convertField goalTheir call78.5%45% to makePunt78.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 6:25WVU 4th & 22 at KSU 26, down 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snapGo for it13.7%−2.37% to convertField goalTheir call16.0%64% to makePunt11.5%−4.5average punt
- Q3 3:50KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 44, up 16Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it88.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:37WVU 4th & 24 at WVU 6, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it9.8%−3.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q4 13:35KSU 4th & 2 at WVU 19, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%56% to convertField goal91.1%−0.877% to makePunt85.9%−6.0average punt
- Q4 12:24WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 34, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:36KSU 4th & 6 at WVU 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%40% to convertField goal96.8%−<0.154% to makePunt96.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:03WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 33, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:52KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:51KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.1%97% to makeGo for two69.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:26WVU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.5%97% to makeGo for two31.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:41WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call34.9%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:12KSU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two68.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:17KSU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:22WVU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call32.2%97% to makeGo for two32.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:28KSU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.9%97% to makeGo for two75.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:55WVU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick29.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call29.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:24KSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:30WVU Touchdown, down 17 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKSUDrive 1TD5 plays · 69 yds · 2:0073% → 73%
Q1 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+33
27.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 33 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2INT TD3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0127% → 27%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 2 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2527% → 29%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
26.8%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+15
26.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Cortez Braham for 15 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
28.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 26 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4INT TD4 plays · 14 yds · 1:4572% → 70%
KSUDrive 5TD3 plays · 68 yds · 1:2270% → 73%
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+19
30.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 19 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4128% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD4 plays · 34 yds · 1:1473% → 77%
Q1 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+26
27.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 26 yds to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD3 plays · 81 yds · 0:4824% → 28%
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
23.5%
QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush up the middle for no gain to the WVU19 (CHEATUM, Drake;HUGGINS, Eli). PENALTY KSU Holding on HAYES, Josh enforced 10 yards from the WVU19 to the WVU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
27.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 71 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD6 plays · 60 yds · 2:4773% → 79%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
27.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 5 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+39
27.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 39 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-7
27.2%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 15 fumbled, recovered by KanSt DJ GiddensSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+15
20.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10TD11 plays · 87 yds · 6:2622% → 28%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
22.4%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Brian Polendey for 6 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
23.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Treylan Davis for 8 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
23.6%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 5 yds for a TD, (G. Greene Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11FG14 plays · 37 yds · 5:0975% → 80%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
25.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 8 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
24.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
25.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jacolby Spells) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
24.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+3
22.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 3 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:2622% → 22%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Reese Smith for 1 yd to the WVirg 26Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
22.0%
Garrett Greene sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
22.1%
Oliver Straw punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13FG8 plays · 30 yds · 1:1981% → 87%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
18.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+31
17.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 31 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 11
OPP 28
-7
15.0%
Will Howard sacked by Jordan Jefferson for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14MISSED FG21 plays · 49 yds · 8:3518% → 15%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
18.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 10 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
19.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Cortez Braham for 9 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
19.8%
JOHNSON JR., Justin rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the KSU49 (PAYNE, VJ). PENALTY WVU Holding on FRAZIER, Zach enforced 6 yards from the WVU48 to the WVU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 16
OWN 42
-5
18.8%
QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the WVU48 (MOORE, Austin;SEUMALO, Uso). PENALTY Before the snap, WVU Illegal Shift on JOHNSON JR., Justin enforced 5 yards from the WVU42 to the WVU37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 26
OWN 32
+10
18.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 10 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+5
18.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+18
18.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Cortez Braham for 18 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-5
20.6%
ANDERSON, Jaylen rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the KSU15 (PAYNE, VJ). PENALTY Before the snap, WVU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the KSU19 to the KSU24. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
19.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay Of Game Unnecessary Roughness on ANUDIKE-UZOMAH, Felix enforced ( Yards) to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-12
19.7%
Garrett Greene sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 12 yards to the KanSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3587% → 89%
WVUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 2:1313% → 12%
Q3 3:50
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-5
13.1%
GREENE, Garrett pass to the right complete for 12 yards to BRAHAM, Cortez caught at the WVU27 and advanced to the WVU27 (PARRISH, Jacob), out of bounds. PENALTY WVU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on YATES, Brandon enforced 5 yards from the WVU15 to the WVU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 20
OWN 10
-4
12.9%
Garrett Greene sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0291% → 92%
Q3 1:37
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+11
9.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 11 yds to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD3 plays · 40 yds · 1:0493% → 98%
WVUDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:542% → 7%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
2.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Treylan Davis for 6 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+12
2.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Cortez Braham for 12 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
2.6%
Sam James pass complete to Garrett Greene for 12 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21DOWNS16 plays · 44 yds · 5:5396% → 99%
Q4 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
2.1%
HOWARD, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for KNOWLES, Malik thrown to the WVU48. PENALTY WVU Holding on SPELLS, Jacolby enforced 10 yards from the KSU39 to the KSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+11
1.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 11 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 0:331% → 1%
KSUDrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · 8 yds · 3:0399% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:28
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q4 12:24
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 43 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q1 1:22
Garrett Greene pass complete to Sam James for 71 yds for a TD, (Casey Legg PAT MISSED)
+4.4