Try the model
ALA

Alabama 45 at Kansas State 20

KSU
2022 · Allstate Sugar Bowl · Dec 31, 2022 · Caesars Superdome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+4.1KSU 6.0%Ty Zentner 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 35 - HOME 13 · Q3 6:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:33 · Ty Zentner 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense−29.6Score differential−18.9Pregame prior−10.1Garbage-time factor−9.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:33: Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +4.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 12 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:54: Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 32 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +10.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:00: Jase McClellan run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +9.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:33: Ty Zentner 28 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:02ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17KSU 4th & 8 at ALA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40ALA 4th & 9 at KSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:42KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:51KSU 4th & 1 at ALA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−2.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:16KSU 4th & 4 at ALA 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:01KSU 4th & 2 at ALA 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−7.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:38KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 27, up 25
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33KSU 4th & 5 at ALA 10, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:50ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 41, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:33KSU 4th & 16 at KSU 27, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:31KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 21, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:00ALA 4th & 7 at KSU 31, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:03KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 32, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:33ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 33, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:26KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:32ALA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:33ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:54ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:00ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:01ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:06KSU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1325% → 26%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
24.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 4 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
24.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+24
25.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
50
+5
25.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
25.6%
Malik Knowles run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
26.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 4 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
26.1%
Will Howard pass intercepted Jordan Battle return for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4374% → 74%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
25.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
26.2%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
26.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
26.5%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:2527% → 30%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
26.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
26.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
27.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 11
50
+12
27.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
27.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+9
28.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 9 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
28.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-3
29.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
29.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
29.7%
Ty Zentner 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1770% → 69%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
29.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
30.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
50
+2
29.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-11
29.9%
Bryce Young sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+10
31.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 10 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
31.5%
James Burnip punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
34.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 88 yds for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:4066% → 68%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
34.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
34.8%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+60
36.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 60 yds to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
34.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 11Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
35.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 5 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
31.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 6 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3933% → 32%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
32.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
32.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
32.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade WarnerSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
32.1%
Ty Zentner punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:5267% → 72%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
33.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
33.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
33.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+47
33.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 47 yds to the KanSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.8%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the KanSt 1Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9DOWNS
22 plays · 73 yds · 10:2031% → 34%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
30.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 8 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
31.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-4
32.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+12
30.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 12 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
33.5%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 6
50
-5
33.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
30.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
33.6%
Will Howard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+13
31.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 13 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+6
32.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 6 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
35.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
35.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+4
34.5%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+15
33.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds to the Alab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
36.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Andrew Leingang) to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
36.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
36.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 9 yds to the Alab 2Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
35.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Alab 2Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
34.1%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 0:4568% → 81%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
31.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+22
31.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 22 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
30.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
31.1%
Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
29.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 28 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
26.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 22 yds to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
18.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 12 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
20.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:3979% → 89%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
21.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 5 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+9
21.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 9 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
10.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 32 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1713% → 13%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
12.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
12.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-2
12.7%
Will Howard pass intercepted Brian Branch return for 2 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
3.2%
Jase McClellan run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:133% → 2%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
3.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
2.1%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
2.6%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 2 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Ty Zentner punt for 53 yds, downed at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3897% → 98%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
2.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
2.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
2.4%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+1
2.3%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 1 yd to the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 1:522% → 6%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
1.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
1.9%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+36
1.9%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 36 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
2.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+5
1.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+5
1.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
1.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
6.0%
Ty Zentner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0796% → 97%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
3.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 23 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
3.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 8
50
-10
3.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Booker) to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+5
3.6%
Bryce Young run for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-4
3.3%
Bryce Young sacked by VJ Payne for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
3.5%
James Burnip punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:524% → 4%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
4.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
4.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
3.8%
Will Howard sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+4
3.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 16
OWN 27
0
3.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
3.5%
Ty Zentner punt for 24 yds, downed at the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:1397% → 99%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
2.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 3 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
2.4%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the KanSt 47Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+47
0.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 47 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-10
0.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KanSt 14Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 20
OWN 14
0
0.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce VaughnSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 20
OWN 14
+7
0.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
0.5%
Ty Zentner punt for 29 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3199% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
0.6%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
0.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the KanSt 27 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-10 Yards) to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 13
OPP 37
+6
0.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
0.5%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
0.5%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
0.5%
Will Reichard 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
0.3%
Will Howard sacked by Brian Branch for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 16Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
0.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 6 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
0.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 10 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+15
0.2%
Ty Zentner punt for 53 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 15 yds to the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
0.3%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:080% → 0%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
0.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christian Duffie) to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+8
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+30
0.1%
DJ Giddens run for 30 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
0.2%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 10 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.2%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+16
0.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 16 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Jordan Schippers run for 1 yd for a TD (Ty Zentner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26Uncategorized
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+12
0.2%
Roydell Williams run for 12 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
0.2%
Jamarion Miller run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+38
0.2%
Jamarion Miller run for 38 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
0.2%
Jamarion Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:54
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 32 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q3 13:00
Jase McClellan run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 0:10
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 12 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com