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KSU

Kansas State 32 at Iowa State 28

ISU
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:57 · Nick Walsh punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior−18.6Home team on offense+6.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score differential+2.6Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:33: DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +13.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:36: Jarvis West pass complete to Allen Lazard for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +14.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:26: Jake Waters run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK) — KSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:01: Charles Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters failed) — KSU win probability +25.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:30: Jake Waters run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters failed) — KSU win probability +48.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:59ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25KSU 4th & 10 at ISU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:17ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40KSU 4th & 10 at ISU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:37KSU 4th & 15 at KSU 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:16KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 35, down 1
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:27KSU 4th & 17 at KSU 8, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−3.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 1 at KSU 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−4.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:57KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 48, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:00ISU 4th & 14 at KSU 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00KSU 4th & 1 at ISU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−6.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:58ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−5.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:40KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 43, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:30ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−5.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:30ISU 4th & 5 at KSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−4.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−8.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:05KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:13ISU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:33ISU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:36ISU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:26KSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:5585% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
14.8%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 8 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+9
14.8%
Jake Waters run for 9 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
14.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+57
14.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 57 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.3%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
15.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for no gain to the IowSt 11Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
15.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
15.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
15.3%
Colin Downing punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:3285% → 84%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
15.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 32 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
15.5%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Sexton, Curry, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Lynn, Kenneth) 15 yards to the ISU10, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
15.6%
Jake Waters run for no gain to the IowSt 10Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
15.8%
Jack Cantele 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
15.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 2 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
15.7%
Aaron Wimberly run for 6 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
15.8%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-5
15.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, delay of game (Colin Downing) to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
15.6%
Colin Downing punt for 44 yds , Judah Jones returns for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:2084% → 85%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
16.3%
Charles Jones run for 18 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
16.0%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+10
16.0%
Charles Jones run for 10 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
16.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
16.0%
Jake Waters run for 18 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
15.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+3
16.0%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+7
16.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Deante Burton for 7 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-5
16.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
16.1%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
15.4%
Jack Cantele 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:2216% → 21%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
15.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 6 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+15
15.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 15 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
15.9%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 9 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+9
16.1%
Sam E. Richardson run for 9 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
16.2%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
16.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 9 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
16.5%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete, PENALTY KS pass interference (Burns, Morgan) 15 yards to the KS20, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
16.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 3 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
21.1%
Jarvis West 17 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3681% → 74%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.3%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
18.9%
Jake Waters run for 16 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
18.6%
Jake Waters sacked by Cory Morrissey for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
-2
19.1%
Jake Waters sacked by Robby Garcia for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
19.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Sam E. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 15
OWN 42
+82
25.7%
Mitch Lochbihler punt for 40 yds , Jarvis West returns for 82 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1475% → 74%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
25.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the KanSt 21Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
25.2%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 5 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
25.2%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
26.4%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
26.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5727% → 43%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.0%
Sam E. Richardson run for 12 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
27.5%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
28.2%
Sam E. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
27.5%
Sam E. Richardson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 4 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+25
28.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 10 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
29.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 4 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
29.1%
Sam E. Richardson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+8
28.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 8 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
29.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 7 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
29.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd to the KanSt 2Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
41.0%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
41.1%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-5
41.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Deante Burton) to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-7
42.2%
Waters, Jake pass complete to Sexton, Curry for 42 yards to the ISU43 (Mutcherson, T.J.), PENALTY KS pass interference (Lockett, Tyler) 7 yards to the KS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 17
OWN 8
0
42.4%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 17
OWN 8
+11
43.0%
Nick Walsh punt for 50 yds , Jarvis West returns for 11 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:3247% → 62%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
47.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 18 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
61.8%
Jarvis West pass complete to Allen Lazard for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 1:0444% → 60%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
56.3%
Charles Jones run for 8 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
55.1%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Kenneth LynnSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+12
55.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 12 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
55.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (N/A) to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
52.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Glenn Gronkowski for 8 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+9
51.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 9 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
50.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 9 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+7
51.4%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
51.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 15 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.4%
Jake Waters run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Cantele KICK)Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
40.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Glenn Gronkowski) to the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
51.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
49.8%
Wimberly, Aaron rush for 3 yards to the ISU30, PENALTY KS offside defense (McDaniel, Danzel) 5 yards to the ISU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
50.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 6 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
51.6%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
51.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
52.2%
Sam E. Richardson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
52.3%
Wimberly, Aaron rush for loss of 7 yards to the ISU47 (Mueller, Ryan), PENALTY ISU illegal shift 5 yards to the ISU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+10
51.5%
Aaron Wimberly run for 10 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
51.3%
Aaron Wimberly run for no gain to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
49.8%
Aaron Wimberly run for no gain to the KanSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
51.4%
Jake Waters run for 7 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
50.0%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-1
50.3%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
52.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
57.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
58.4%
Sam E. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
56.9%
Sam E. Richardson run for 9 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
59.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 8 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+12
60.6%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 12 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. Bibbs, broken up by Will DavisSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
60.8%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd to the KanSt 43Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-5
59.4%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Ryan Mueller and Elijah Lee for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
56.1%
Colin Downing punt for 45 yds, downed at the KanSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17DOWNS
17 plays · 66 yds · 5:0437% → 30%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
63.4%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the KanSt 5Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+2
63.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 2 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+7
65.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 7 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
62.9%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
63.3%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+5
64.2%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
62.7%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
62.9%
Charles Jones run for 8 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+16
62.0%
Jake Waters run for 16 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
69.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to DeMarcus Robinson for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
68.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Nigel TribuneSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
68.7%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
68.9%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-5
66.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Kody Cook) to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
68.9%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
70.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to DeMarcus Robinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
70.3%
Jake Waters run for no gain to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
79.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 6 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
81.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
81.8%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
81.7%
Sam E. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
80.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass intercepted Randall Evans return for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:1422% → 51%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
78.4%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Richardson, Sam E.) 15 yards to the ISU39, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
77.3%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 23 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
75.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Deante Burton for 12 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
49.2%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:5860% → 64%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
59.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Randall EvansSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
59.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 12 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
61.8%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
63.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
50
-4
64.3%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+1
60.9%
Sam E. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
65.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Aaron WimberlySimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
63.6%
Colin Downing punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Curry Sexton at the KanSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
59.3%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Glenn GronkowskiSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
60.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Nigel TribuneSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
62.2%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
63.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0971% → 76%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
71.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
72.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-3
74.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
75.7%
Colin Downing punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Curry Sexton at the KanSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:3132% → 94%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
67.9%
Jake Waters run for 15 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.7%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+23
66.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 23 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
59.2%
Jake Waters run for 25 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
56.0%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
54.1%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
6.4%
Jake Waters run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
22.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
21.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis WestSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
19.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 8 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
23.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
23.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 18 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
28.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
26.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 5 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
27.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis WestSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-11
24.3%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Danzel McDaniel for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard line Sam E. Richardson fumbled, recovered by IowSt Aaron Wimberly , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
50
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:30
Jake Waters run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters failed)
-48.8
TD · Q4 8:01
Charles Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters failed)
-25.8
TD · Q2 1:36
Jarvis West pass complete to Allen Lazard for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com