Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 20 at TCU 41

TCU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:11: Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 10 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +5.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:42: Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 70 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:36: Trevone Boykin run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +7.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:30: Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:39: Aaron Green run for 65 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +12.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:40KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54TCU 4th & 5 at KSU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:27KSU 4th & 3 at TCU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:49TCU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:56KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50TCU 4th & 1 at KSU 9, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−1.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−6.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:07KSU 4th & 11 at TCU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:23TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:51KSU 4th & 4 at TCU 49, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50TCU 4th & 9 at KSU 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:24KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:03TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 43, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:06TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:11TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:42KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:36TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:30KSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:39TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:39TCU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:36KSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5534% → 35%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
65.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 3 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
65.6%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 1 yd to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
65.5%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 1
50
-1
65.4%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
65.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:1966% → 66%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
65.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
65.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 8 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+9
65.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
65.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
65.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 8 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
65.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
65.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
65.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
65.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5235% → 35%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 5 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-13
65.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-13 Yards) to the KanSt 12Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+3
65.2%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+10
65.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Charles Jones for 10 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
65.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4765% → 69%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
65.1%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
65.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to David PorterSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+20
64.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 20 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
65.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 7 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+34
65.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 34 yds to the KanSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2532% → 32%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
68.1%
Jake Waters sacked by James McFarland for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
68.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 13 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 24 yds, downed at the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:0670% → 75%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
69.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
69.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 2 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
70.0%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+12
70.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 12 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
70.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 15 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
70.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
75.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 10 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:1626% → 31%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.6%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Zach TrujilloSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+70
69.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 70 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:0669% → 70%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
69.2%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
69.8%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
70.4%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
70.1%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
70.8%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+7
70.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
70.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
69.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2130% → 30%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to DeMarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
70.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 9 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
69.9%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
69.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 13 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
69.0%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 4
50
+3
68.6%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 3 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-2
68.7%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
70.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2871% → 73%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
70.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
71.6%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+4
71.5%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
71.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
73.3%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-1
73.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
73.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 1
50
0
72.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 46 yds, downed at the KanSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4427% → 26%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
72.6%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
73.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
73.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
74.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 3:0174% → 79%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
74.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 3 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+9
73.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 9 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
74.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 9 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+8
75.7%
Aaron Green run for 8 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
76.5%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the KanSt 17Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+7
76.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 7 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
75.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the KanSt 9Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
78.9%
Jaden Oberkrom 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2522% → 21%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
78.3%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
78.3%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
78.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
79.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 55 yds, downed at the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
78.5%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:0478% → 87%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
78.2%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
78.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 15 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
78.7%
Aaron Green run for 10 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
79.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 12 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
86.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:5514% → 25%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
85.6%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 31Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+21
87.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 21 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
85.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 5 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
85.7%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+15
86.6%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
85.3%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 9 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
85.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Deante Burton for no gain to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
86.7%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 4 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:3980% → 91%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
79.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 11 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
91.4%
Aaron Green run for 65 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:2511% → 9%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
89.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 13 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
88.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 12 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.3%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
88.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 13 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
89.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
89.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Charles Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
90.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
90.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 31 yds, downed at the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3692% → 92%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
92.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
92.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-5
91.8%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+11
91.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 11 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 4
OWN 18
-3
91.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 34 yds , Danzel McDaniel returns for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 45 Danzel McDaniel fumbled, recovered by KanStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:568% → 8%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
91.6%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 44Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+7
91.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
91.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+24
92.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 10 KANSAS ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4093% → 98%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.0%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+34
93.3%
Aaron Green run for 34 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 15 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
94.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+11
94.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 11 yds to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
94.5%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the KanSt 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
94.9%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
97.8%
Jaden Oberkrom 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 14 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.2%
Jake Waters sacked by Mike Tuaua for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 34 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for no gain to the TCU 28 Cameron Echols-Luper fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:4098% → 100%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-10
98.4%
Boykin, Trevone rush for 4 yards to the TCU32, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+11
98.5%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+13
98.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 13 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
98.7%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-3
98.8%
Aaron Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+7
98.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+15
98.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
98.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 6 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
98.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 5 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24INT
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+25
99.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 25 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Jake Waters run for 4 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
99.9%
Jake Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
99.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Zach Trujillo for 14 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
99.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 30 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+30
99.9%
Jake Waters pass intercepted Chris Hackett return for 30 yds to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-5
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 8 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 54 yds, downed at the KanSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 97 yds · 1:040% → 1%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
99.9%
Joe Hubener run for 6 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+11
100.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+74
99.9%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Curry Sexton for 74 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Joe Hubener run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
99.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-4
99.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:39
Aaron Green run for 65 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 9:30
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q3 13:36
Trevone Boykin run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com