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KSU

Kansas State 35 at UCLA 40

UCLA
2014 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Jan 2, 2015 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:14 · Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+18.2Score differential+7.7Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Blowout margin+0.8Time remaining+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:19: Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 7 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:23: Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters pass to Tyler Lockett for Two-Point Conversion) — KSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:25: DeMarcus Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:54: Jake Waters run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +15.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:21: Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +18.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7KSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:38KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03UCLA 4th & 6 at KSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25UCLA 4th & 3 at KSU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:06KSU 4th & 13 at UCLA 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:01UCLA 4th & 21 at UCLA 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−3.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:05KSU 4th & 7 at UCLA 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:55UCLA 4th & 18 at UCLA 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:24KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 18
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:19UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:03KSU 4th & 3 at UCLA 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:23KSU 4th & 3 at UCLA 3, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:14KSU 4th & 1 at UCLA 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−3.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    -1.5%−12.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:33UCLA 4th & 10 at KSU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:31KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 46, down 13
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:13UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:10KSU 4th & 6 at UCLA 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:47UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:25UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:29UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:19UCLA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:23KSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:25KSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:54KSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:20UCLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:21KSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:5649% → 50%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
48.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 19 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+34
48.8%
Devin Lucien run for 34 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
48.9%
Brett Hundley run for 4 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
49.1%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the KanSt 19Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+9
49.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 9 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
50.1%
Brett Hundley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5550% → 49%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
49.9%
Jake Waters sacked by Eric Kendricks for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
50.3%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
50.5%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+9
50.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 51 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2651% → 53%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
50.9%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
51.3%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+30
51.4%
Paul Perkins run for 30 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
51.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 2 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
52.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
52.4%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
52.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Nate Iese, broken up by Danzel McDanielSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
52.8%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
53.1%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin Fuller, broken up by Randall EvansSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
52.9%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5647% → 46%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
52.8%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+11
53.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
53.3%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
53.8%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
54.2%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+54
54.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devin Fuller at the UCLA 39 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Lucien) to the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:2255% → 66%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
54.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 13 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
55.4%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
55.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 3 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
56.1%
Brett Hundley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 45 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (Mossi Johnson) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 17
OWN 45
+12
56.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 12 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
56.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 8 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
57.1%
Hundley, Brett pass complete to James, Jordon for no gain to the KANSASST35, PENALTY UCLA illegal block (Redmond, Alex) 10 yards to the KANSASST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+2
56.7%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+13
57.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 13 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+2
57.2%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+28
65.5%
Brett Hundley run for 28 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:4635% → 35%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+40
64.6%
Jake Waters run for 25 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Deon Hollins) to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
63.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 3 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
64.9%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
65.6%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
65.4%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+11
67.3%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-6
67.9%
Jake Waters sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
64.9%
Matthew McCrane 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:5067% → 66%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
66.7%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
67.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
66.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Mossi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 6
OWN 32
-15
66.1%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caleb Benenoch) to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 21
OWN 17
+41
66.1%
Matt Mengel punt for 39 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for 41 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4537% → 38%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
63.2%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
63.6%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
64.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
62.0%
Matthew McCrane 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0564% → 63%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
64.1%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
63.9%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-7
63.1%
Brett Hundley sacked by Marquel Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
63.0%
Matt Mengel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Lockett at the KanSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:5337% → 38%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.6%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Curry SextonSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+23
63.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 23 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler LockettSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+41
61.8%
Jake Waters pass intercepted Myles Jack return for 41 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:2266% → 75%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
66.7%
Brett Hundley run for 12 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
75.4%
Paul Perkins run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5526% → 25%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.0%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
74.5%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 2 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
75.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 48 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for no gain to the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5877% → 76%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
76.8%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
76.8%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
76.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
76.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 52 yds , Tyler Lockett returns for no gain to the KanSt 22 KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Randall Evans) to the KanSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14FUMBLE
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3523% → 20%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
77.0%
DeMarcus Robinson run for no gain to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
77.7%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Steven WestSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+11
78.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 11 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
78.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Glenn Gronkowski for 7 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+3
77.9%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
78.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 24 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
77.6%
Jake Waters sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 17
OPP 46
-3
79.6%
Jake Waters sacked by Marcus Rios for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 49 Jake Waters fumbled, forced by Marcus Rios, recovered by UCLA Eddie Vanderdoes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:5281% → 93%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
81.3%
Brett Hundley run for 7 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
81.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan Payton, broken up by Morgan BurnsSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+37
81.1%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 37 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.1%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 7 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:309% → 13%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.4%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
91.7%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
92.2%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 11 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
92.3%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 35Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+10
93.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Judah Jones for 10 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+14
93.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 14 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
93.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Drew Liddle) to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 15
OPP 46
-10
93.4%
Jake Waters sacked by Owamagbe Odighizuwa for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 44Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 25
OWN 44
+12
94.1%
Jake Waters pass complete to Charles Jones for 12 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+20
95.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 20 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
94.3%
Jake Waters run for 7 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
94.7%
Jake Waters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
95.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+7
94.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
94.6%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.9%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.5%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Owamagbe OdighizuwaSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Waters pass to Tyler Lockett for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:2090% → 91%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.4%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
90.8%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 21 Paul Perkins fumbled, forced by Ryan Mueller, recovered by KanSt Dakorey Johnson , return for 9 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2014% → 22%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
86.1%
DeMarcus Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+7
87.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to DeMarcus Robinson for 7 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+5
88.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Owamagbe Odighizuwa) to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-5
88.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Boston Stiverson) to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+7
89.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 7 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
89.8%
Jake Waters run for 2 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
89.4%
Jake Waters run for 5 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Jack) to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.3%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5282% → 90%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
81.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Conor McDermott) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+6
81.4%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-2
82.1%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+40
81.2%
Brett Hundley run for 40 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
84.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 7 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-10
85.1%
Perkins, Paul rush for 7 yards to the KANSASST12, PENALTY UCLA holding (Quessenberry, Scott) 10 yards to the KANSASST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+3
84.8%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
84.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
90.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5611% → 10%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Tyler Lockett pass incomplete to Charles JonesSimilar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
89.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 16 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
89.1%
Jake Waters sacked by Eric Kendricks for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+13
90.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Kody Cook for 13 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
90.0%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody Cook, broken up by Fabian MoreauSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
90.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1193% → 93%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.3%
Brett Hundley run for 4 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+20
93.4%
Paul Perkins run for 20 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.1%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Thomas Duarte, broken up by Nate JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
94.0%
Jordon James run for 1 yd to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-7
93.9%
Brett Hundley sacked by Ryan Mueller for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
93.1%
Matt Mengel punt for 53 yds, downed at the KanSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23TD
19 plays · 91 yds · 6:056% → 21%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
93.7%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 9 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+5
93.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 5 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
94.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 3 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
93.8%
DeMarcus Robinson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
93.8%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 4 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
94.2%
Waters, Jake rush for 11 yards to the KANSASST45, PENALTY KANSASST illegal formation 5 yards to the KANSASST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+10
94.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 10 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
94.4%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Zach TrujilloSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+15
94.6%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Lockett, Tyler, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Jefferson, Anthony) 15 yards to the UCLA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.3%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Kody CookSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
94.4%
Jake Waters pass incomplete to Tyler Lockett, broken up by Owamagbe OdighizuwaSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
94.6%
Waters, Jake pass incomplete to Sexton, Curry, PENALTY UCLA offside (Hollins, Deon) 5 yards to the UCLA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-6
94.6%
Jake Waters sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 11
OPP 47
+5
95.4%
UCLA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+18
95.5%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 18 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
94.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 12 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
94.7%
Jake Waters run for 3 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
94.9%
Jake Waters pass complete to Charles Jones for 8 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Myles Jack) to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.0%
Jake Waters run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:1590% → 97%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
90.3%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
90.9%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
90.5%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.2%
Brett Hundley run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
94.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Conor McDermott) to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+67
97.2%
Paul Perkins 67 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 0:362% → 21%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
97.6%
Waters, Jake pass pass intercepted by Willis, Priest at the KANSASST29, Willis, Priest return 26 yards to the KANSASST3, PENALTY UCLA personal foul (Willis, Priest) 15 yards to the KANSASST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
97.6%
Jake Waters pass complete to Curry Sexton for 19 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
97.4%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 12 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
97.3%
Jake Waters run for 15 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
79.0%
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1594% → 92%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
50
-1
92.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:21
Jake Waters pass complete to Tyler Lockett for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-18.3
TD · Q4 4:54
Jake Waters run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q2 0:19
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 7 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com