Kennesaw State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1358th
  Defense+0.0952nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.3%37th
  Defense42.1%46th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3484th
  Defense+1.2165th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0955th
  Defense+0.1130th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2670th
  Defense+0.1164th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.2%35th
  Defense49.7%27th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.5%61st
  Defense24.6%92nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8438th
  Defense2.9740th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.3%27th
  Defense19.0%51st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.2%55th
  Defense16.8%67th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kennesaw State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   WAKE
2. L
   IU
3. W
   MRMK
4. W
   ARST
5. W
   MTSU
6. W
   LT
7. W
   FIU
8. W
   UTEP
9. W
   NMSU
10. L
    JXST
11. W
    MOST
12. W
    LIB
13. W
    JXST
14. L
    WMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kennesaw State.

Players, 2025

1. Amari OdomQB330 plays · +0.251 pts/play · 35th of 231 QBs
   1.55WAR0.96 to 2.20
2. Dexter Williams IIQB125 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 144th of 231 QBs
   0.39WAR0.18 to 0.62
3. Coleman BennettRB160 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 34th of 365 RBs
   0.33WAR0.24 to 0.43
4. Chase BelcherRB89 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 115th of 365 RBs
   0.19WAR0.15 to 0.24
5. Christian MossWR44 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 139th of 451 WRs
   0.13WAR0.05 to 0.23
6. Clayton Coppock Jr.WR48 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 149th of 451 WRs
   0.12WAR0.06 to 0.18
7. Alexander DiggsRB67 plays · +0.085 pts/play · 225th of 365 RBs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.14
8. Gabriel BenyardWR91 plays · +0.042 pts/play · 251st of 451 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.09 to 0.22

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kennesaw State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  339339132nd of 134Roster talent: 339, 132nd of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3131132nd of 134Recruiting: 31, 132nd of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  46%46%47th of 132Returning production: 46%, 47th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −5.4−5.487th of 134SP+ rating: −5.4, 87th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kennesaw State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 11 clear-cut ones account for 0.28 of the 0.33 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at JXSTQ4 0:55 4th & 14 at JXST 37, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−8.9 pts
2. vs MTSUQ4 0:00 4th & 26 at KENN 22, up 8Went for it; the numbers favored punting−4.5 pts
3. at FIUQ3 6:22 4th & 1 at KENN 17, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
4. vs MOSTQ2 0:05 4th & 14 at KENN 48, up 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.0 pts
5. at LIBQ3 0:09 4th & 4 at LIB 47, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. at NMSUQ4 1:51 4th & 5 at KENN 40, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
7. vs MOSTQ2 12:34 4th & 1 at MOST 47, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
8. vs UTEPQ3 9:08 4th & 1 at KENN 21, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

4th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kennesaw State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   WAKE
2. L

   IU
3. W

   MRMK
4. W

   ARST
5. W

   MTSU
6. W

   LT
7. W

   FIU
8. W

   UTEP
9. W

   NMSU
10. L

    JXST
11. W

    MOST
12. W

    LIB
13. W

    JXST
14. L

    WMU

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Kennesaw State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.23
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock−0.09
• Timeouts−0.22
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.07

Game by game

• WAKEL 9-10 at WAKE9% → 13%Before kickoff −41 · On the field +4: Scoreboard −16, Timeouts +2
• IUL 9-56 at IU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
• MRMKW 27-13 vs MRMK86% → 97%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +19
• ARSTW 28-21 vs ARST29% → 86%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +70, Timeouts −41
• MTSUW 24-16 vs MTSU62% → 97%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts −3
• LTW 35-7 vs LT32% → 100%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +59, Possession & field position −1
• FIUW 45-26 at FIU49% → 99%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +52, Clock +2
• UTEPW 33-20 vs UTEP70% → 99%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1
• NMSUW 24-21 at NMSU73% → 95%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +35, Clock +2
• JXSTL 26-35 at JXST57% → 4%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −1
• MOSTW 41-34 vs MOST65% → 97%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• LIBW 48-42 at LIB51% → 82%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +19
• JXSTW 19-15 at JXST53% → 96%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +47, Clock +2
• WMUL 6-41 at WMU36% → 0%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Kennesaw State's side.

Closest call

LIB 24-27 KENN (2024) - Kennesaw State dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.