2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:39 · Daniel Kinney 50 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 5:46: Timeout Indiana, clock 05:46 — IU win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:40: Lee Beebe Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:43: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 3 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:43: Timeout Indiana, clock 08:43 — KENN win probability +1.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:05: Omar Cooper Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +2.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:41IU 4th & 3 at IU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q1 12:03KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 41, tiedClose callPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:01KENN 4th & 12 at KENN 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 2:34KENN 4th & 4 at KENN 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q1 0:00IU 4th & 1 at IU 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:33IU 4th & 5 at IU 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q2 11:28KENN 4th & 11 at KENN 4, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 10:36IU 4th & 12 at KENN 29, up 14Close callWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.5%−0.223% to convertField goal96.7%58% to makePunt95.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 5:46KENN 4th & 2 at IU 10, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%55% to convertField goalTheir call3.9%−0.288% to makePunt2.9%−1.3average punt
- Q2 0:28KENN 4th & 4 at IU 11, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.145% to convertField goalTheir call3.7%87% to makePunt2.2%−1.4average punt
- Q3 12:39KENN 4th & 14 at IU 31, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.319% to convertField goalTheir call4.1%54% to makePunt3.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 1:08KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 26, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:16KENN 4th & 8 at IU 46, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:54KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 42, down 47Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 8:28IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:45IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:40IU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:43IU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:05IU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:53IU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:17IU Touchdown, up 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:03IU Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1399% → 98%
Q1 13:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
98.4%
Quinn Warren punt for 40 yds , Gabriel Benyard returns for 6 yds to the KENN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:322% → 2%
Q1 12:03
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
98.2%
Joshua Huiet punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the IU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:3098% → 98%
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+14
98.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
98.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds to the KENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+40
98.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 40 yds to the KENN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
97.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the KENN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Alexander Diggs for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD7 plays · 48 yds · 3:0998% → 98%
KENNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:032% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 3:5598% → 98%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
98.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to LeBron Bond for 6 yds to the IU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 2:053% → 3%
Q2 11:28
4TH & 11
OWN 4
+35
97.4%
Joshua Huiet punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENN 27 , Jonathan Brady returns for 35 yds to the KENN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5298% → 98%
Q2 10:36
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+2
97.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 2 yds to the KENN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 10FG15 plays · 63 yds · 4:503% → 4%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
97.4%
Amari Odom pass complete to Alexander Diggs for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 26Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+11
97.4%
Amari Odom pass complete to Christian Moss for 11 yds to the KENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
97.2%
Amari Odom pass complete to Christian Moss for 9 yds to the IU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5797% → 98%
KENNDrive 12FG9 plays · 64 yds · 3:053% → 3%
IUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 14FG9 plays · 44 yds · 2:073% → 4%
Q3 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+32
96.5%
Amari Odom pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 32 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.1%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Odom,Amari pass incomplete deep right to Moss,Christian thrown to IND15 PENALTY IND Pass Interference (Sharpe,Jamari) 15 yards from IND42 to IND27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-6
95.7%
Amari Odom sacked by Aiden Fisher for a loss of 6 yards to the IU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD10 plays · 73 yds · 3:4395% → 98%
KENNDrive 16FUMBLE6 plays · 50 yds · 2:153% → 3%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.3%
Amari Odom sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 4 yards to the KENN 21Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+19
97.3%
Amari Odom pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 19 yds to the KENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+34
97.2%
Amari Odom pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 34 yds to the IU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18INT4 plays · 18 yds · 1:190% → 0%
IUDrive 19TD5 plays · 37 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
KENNDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:380% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD10 plays · 63 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Roman Hemby for 25 yds to the KENN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-15
99.9%
(15:00) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short middle to Becker,Charlie caught at KSU04, for 17 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:53 PENALTY IND Pass Interference (Bond,LeBron) 15 yards from KSU17 to KSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 22
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Holden Staes for 7 yds to the KENN 25Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+15
99.9%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Williams Jr.,E.J. thrown to KSU00 PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Washington Jr.,JeRico) 15 yards from KSU25 to KSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Gerard Bullock Jr. for 3 yds to the KENN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD10 plays · 87 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q4 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+29
99.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Charlie Becker for 29 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
100.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 13 yds to the KENN 29 for a 1ST down Kennesaw State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alexander Ford) to the KENN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Charlie Becker for 6 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:020% → 0%
IUDrive 25END OF GAME8 plays · 30 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:43
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 3 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q3 6:05
Omar Cooper Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 3:40
Lee Beebe Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
+1