Kennesaw State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1139th
  Defense+0.1820th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.6%53rd
  Defense45.6%15th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1623rd
  Defense+1.0892nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1770th
  Defense+0.0647th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1125th
  Defense+0.3418th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.9%57th
  Defense50.7%19th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.8%49th
  Defense33.7%23rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3478th
  Defense3.1229th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.9%20th
  Defense20.3%66th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.2%56th
  Defense12.3%9th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kennesaw State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WGA
2. L
   GAST
3. L
   TENN
4. L
   ARST
5. L
   JXST
6. L
   MOST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kennesaw State.

Players, 2026

1. Rickie CollinsQB108 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 99th of 192 QBs
   0.20WAR0.04 to 0.35
2. Boogie Woods IIIRB45 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 124th of 320 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
3. Javon RogersWR8 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 271st of 364 WRs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
4. Daniel KinneyPK4 plays · +0.200 pts/play · 66th of 82 kickers
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.03
5. Zion BookerWR6 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 292nd of 364 WRs
   0.01WAR0.01 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kennesaw State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  503503133rd of 138Roster talent: 503, 133rd of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  7272133rd of 138Recruiting: 72, 133rd of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  6%6%124th of 136Returning production: 6%, 124th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −9.8−9.8107th of 138SP+ rating so far: −9.8, 107th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kennesaw State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs JXSTQ4 14:02 4th & 1 at KENN 34, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. vs JXSTQ2 6:48 4th & 2 at KENN 20, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
3. vs JXSTQ2 2:17 4th & 3 at KENN 32, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
4. vs JXSTQ1 6:44 4th & 2 at JXST 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
5. at ARSTQ2 14:53 4th & 3 at KENN 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
6. vs GASTQ1 6:28 4th & 4 at GAST 11, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
7. vs GASTQ2 10:26 4th & 4 at KENN 42, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
8. at TENNQ4 2:45 4th & 2 at TENN 2, down 36Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

137th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kennesaw State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WGA
2. L

   GAST
3. L

   TENN
4. L

   ARST
5. L

   JXST
6. L

   MOST

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at Kennesaw State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.26
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts−0.03
• Other−0.01

Game by game

• WGAW 47-0 vs WGA93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• GASTL 17-31 vs GAST65% → 1%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −60, Clock −3
• TENNL 9-42 at TENN1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
• ARSTL 14-17 at ARST29% → 4%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −2
• JXSTL 26-27 vs JXST37% → 6%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• MOSTL 21-24 at MOST55% → 31%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −4, Possession & field position −3

Points of win probability, from Kennesaw State's side.

Closest call

LIB 24-27 KENN (2024) - Kennesaw State dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.