2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Matthew Trickett 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:38: Dustin Crum run for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +10.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 9:26: Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +14.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:47: Daniel David run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nathan Robertson KICK) — KENN win probability +60.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:10: Matthew Trickett 38 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +41.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: Matthew Trickett 43 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +22.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7KENN made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 15:00KENT 4th & 17 at KENT 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%average punt
- Q1 8:15KENN 4th & 8 at KENT 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.0%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call49.1%81% to makePunt48.1%−1.1average punt
- Q1 4:27KENT 4th & 14 at KENN 14, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snapGo for it49.3%−0.616% to convertField goalTheir call49.8%84% to makePunt48.0%−1.8average punt
- Q1 4:20KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt47.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:58KENN 4th & 4 at KENT 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snapGo for it49.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call48.7%−0.393% to makePunt45.1%−3.9average punt
- Q2 11:55KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snapGo for it48.5%−1.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.7%average punt
- Q2 10:39KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it49.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%average punt
- Q2 1:03KENN 4th & 2 at KENT 15, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snapGo for it54.6%56% to convertField goalTheir call54.3%−0.383% to makePunt48.3%−6.4average punt
- Q3 14:54KENN 4th & 17 at KENN 43, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snapGo for it56.5%−3.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.6%average punt
- Q3 9:18KENN 4th & 2 at KENN 41, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:14KENN 4th & 8 at KENT 43, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.5%34% to convertField goal39.7%−1.828% to makePunt41.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:08KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 45, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.0%−1.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 45, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt41.1%−1.4average punt
- Q4 10:14KENN 4th & 21 at KENT 26, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snapGo for it32.9%−7.58% to convertField goalTheir call40.4%64% to makePunt26.6%−13.8average punt
- Q4 7:52KENT 4th & 2 at KENN 12, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%−3.086% to makePunt45.9%−19.6average punt
- Q4 7:52KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.3%−5.3average punt
- Q4 7:52KENN 4th & 5 at KENT 18, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 35.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.5%−1.540% to convertField goal34.0%79% to makePunt21.4%−12.6average punt
- Q4 1:00KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.0%−5.7average punt
- Q4 0:10KENT 4th & 10 at KENN 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snapGo for it20.3%−20.228% to convertField goalTheir call40.5%74% to makePunt11.2%−29.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 7:30KENN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:38KENT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.3%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:26KENT Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.4%97% to makeGo for two54.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:47KENN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.5%97% to makeGo for two65.0%−2.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
72.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 11 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 5 yds to the Ksaw 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-5
72.2%
Dustin Crum sacked by Peyton Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
72.2%
Derek Adams punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Isaac Foster at the Ksaw 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 2FG9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1229% → 30%
KENTDrive 3FG11 plays · 27 yds · 3:4071% → 70%
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+10
70.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 10 yds to the Ksaw 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
70.0%
BARRETT, Woody pass complete to PRICE, Kavious for 4 yards to the KSU0, clock 05:06, PENALTY KENTST holding (DULKA, Adam) 10 yards to the KSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 4FG16 plays · 80 yds · 7:2230% → 35%
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-5
69.1%
FOSTER, Isaac rush for 3 yards to the KSU46 (BAHR, Matt;FAULKNER, Nick), PENALTY KSU illegal formation 5 yards to the KSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+34
70.1%
Daniel David pass complete to Bronson Rechsteiner for 34 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.1%
Daniel David pass incomplete to Isaac Foster, broken up by Keith Sherald Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 11:55
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+1
65.2%
Derek Adams punt for 56 yds , Isaac Foster returns for 1 yd to the Ksaw 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 10:39
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+37
66.3%
Nicholas Jones punt for 37 yds , Kavious Price returns for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 34 Kavious Price fumbled, recovered by Ksaw Dorian WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7TD2 plays · 34 yds · 0:3839% → 47%
KENTDrive 8TD10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5254% → 66%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
54.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 7 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-2
55.4%
Dustin Crum sacked by Kelcy Allen and Andrew Butcher for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+15
55.8%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah, PENALTY KSU pass interference (WALKER, Dorian) 15 yards to the KSU23, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9FG12 plays · 50 yds · 3:2739% → 50%
Q2 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
60.4%
TJ Reed run for 10 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Theo Majette) to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+21
59.5%
Daniel David pass complete to Shaquil Terry for 21 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10END OF HALF10 plays · 9 yds · 0:3254% → 55%
KENNDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
51.4%
Shaquil Terry run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
-15
49.1%
REED, TJ rush for loss of 2 yards to the KSU48 (SHERALD JR., K.), PENALTY KSU illegal block (PAXTON, Terrell) 15 yards to the KSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
53.5%
Nicholas Jones punt for 40 yds , Isaiah McKoy returns for no gain to the KntSt 19 Isaiah McKoy fumbled, recovered by Ksaw Dorian WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 12INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
KENTDrive 13TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4252% → 66%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
51.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 9 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+9
51.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
50.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Jo-El Shaw for 8 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
52.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 2 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-8
52.1%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 25 Dustin Crum fumbled,Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+75
66.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 14DOWNS12 plays · 24 yds · 4:0434% → 33%
KENTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
KENNDrive 16MISSED FG15 plays · 62 yds · 7:4433% → 34%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+40
65.1%
Daniel David pass complete to KJ Hancock for 40 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-12
58.3%
GRIER, Antavius rush for 10 yards to the KENTST0, clock 11:44, PENALTY KSU illegal block (RECHSTEINER, B) 12 yards to the KENTST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 17
OPP 22
-7
59.5%
Daniel David sacked by Theo Majette for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17FG5 plays · 62 yds · 2:2268% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0526% → 89%
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+30
70.9%
TJ Reed run for 15 yds to the KENTST 38 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Matt Bahr) to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+3
68.9%
Daniel David pass complete to Bronson Rechsteiner for 3 yds to the KntSt 18Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+14
71.4%
Daniel David pass complete to Caleb O'Neal for 14 yds to the KntSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19FG18 plays · 49 yds · 1:2833% → 58%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
33.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 10 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
35.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 3 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+12
23.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 12 yds to the Ksaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
31.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 12 yds to the Ksaw 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
28.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 5 yds to the Ksaw 26Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+5
31.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 5 yds to the Ksaw 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 20END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 21FUMBLE5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
KENTDrive 22FG5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Daniel David run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nathan Robertson KICK)
-60.1
FG · Q4 0:10
Matthew Trickett 38 yd FG GOOD
+41.1
FG · OT 0:00
Matthew Trickett 43 yd FG GOOD
+22.7