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KENN

Kennesaw State 14 at Arkansas State 17

ARST
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreKENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:53 · (14:59) #34 M.McKenzie punt 58 yards to the ASU00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+15.6Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:24: (04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24 #89 D.Kinney kick attempt good (H: #60 B.Walters, LS: #57 B.Blanton) #89 D.Kinney kick attempt good (H: #60 B.Walters, LS: #57 B.Blanton) PENALTY — KENN win probability +18.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:19: (01:19) #9 T.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:19 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +27.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 8:19: (08:21) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 08:19 — ARST win probability +10.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: Timeout Kennesaw State, clock 01:48 — KENN win probability +21.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38: (01:46) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU50 (#13 C.Miller). #44 B.Hopson injured on the play — ARST win probability +21.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:32KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05ARST 4th & 3 at KENN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:31ARST 4th & 4 at KENN 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:38KENN 4th & 7 at KENN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:08ARST 4th & 13 at KENN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:15KENN 4th & 2 at KENN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:22ARST 4th & 11 at KENN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:22ARST 4th & 6 at KENN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:22KENN 4th & 1 at ARST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−10.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:19ARST 4th & 2 at KENN 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%−3.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−22.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:59KENN 4th & 7 at ARST 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−11.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−22.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1KENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 4:24KENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:19ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2229% → 29%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.8%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush left for 4 yards gain to the KSU29 (#54 R.Reese; #23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
70.7%
(14:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSU31 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
70.6%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #24 B.Woods III caught at KSU26, for 2 yards loss to the KSU29 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.6%
(13:35) #34 M.McKenzie punt 44 yards to the ASU27 fair catch by #10 J.Bonelli at ASU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 6:5571% → 70%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
70.6%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU32, for 7 yards to the ASU34 (#11 T.Christopher; #5 T.Lawson)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
70.6%
(12:55) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #23 S.Baggett caught at ASU30, for 4 yards to the ASU38 (#31 K.Russell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
70.5%
PENALTY ASU False Start (#10 J.Bonelli) 5 yards from ASU38 to ASU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+7
70.3%
(12:02) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #11 T.Little caught at ASU38, for 7 yards to the ASU40 (#44 B.Hopson; #6 M.Patterson)Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
70.4%
(11:14) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at KSU48, for 15 yards to the KSU45 (#0 P.Fisher; #7 L.Evans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
70.6%
(10:36) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #22 E.Jolly caught at KSU40, for 9 yards to the KSU36 (#5 T.Lawson; #31 K.Russell)Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
70.5%
(09:55) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #17 J.Bush thrown to KSU16Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-2
70.4%
(09:50) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KSU38 (#44 B.Hopson; #18 J.Anglin)Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+6
70.1%
(09:11) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at KSU35, for 6 yards to the KSU32 (#5 T.Lawson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
70.4%
(08:37) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU25 (#96 J.Grimes; #13 C.Miller)Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-6
70.3%
(07:58) Shotgun Arkansas State rush middle for 6 yards loss to the KSU31 fumbled by Arkansas State at KSU31 recovered by ASU #9 T.Owens at KSU31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
70.0%
(07:19) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at KSU26, for 5 yards to the KSU26 (#7 L.Evans)Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
69.6%
(06:35) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 06:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4831% → 31%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
69.0%
(06:30) Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the KSU31 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
68.6%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #11 B.Munroe caught at KSU29, for 2 yards to the KSU33 (#5 F.Hamilton; #23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-4
68.6%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short left to #7 N.Dean caught at KSU29, for 4 yards loss to the KSU29 (#0 D.Henderson; #4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
69.3%
(04:43) #34 M.McKenzie punt 36 yards to the ASU35, out of bounds at ASU35 PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from ASU35 to ASU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1569% → 68%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
69.4%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU36, for 4 yards loss to the ASU36 (#7 L.Evans)Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
68.8%
(03:57) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #16 J.Burrell thrown to KSU48 broken up by #11 T.ChristopherSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+8
68.3%
(03:52) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ASU44 (#6 M.Patterson)Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
68.4%
(03:13) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 45 yards to the KSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0532% → 33%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
68.3%
(03:01) Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 7 yards gain to the KSU18 (#4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+4
67.7%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush right for 4 yards gain to the KSU22 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
67.6%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short middle to #19 R.Jesiolowski caught at KSU24, for 9 yards to the KSU31 (#23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
66.8%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KSU35 (#11 S.Badmus; #98 S.Woods), 1ST DOWN. #23 T.Stevens injured on the playSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.0%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU35 (#11 S.Badmus)Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.1%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #11 B.Munroe caught at KSU40, for 5 yards to the KSU40 (#16 J.Drew; #3 N.Flores)Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
66.5%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSU42 (#4 M.Shahid), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
66.8%
(14:59) #34 M.McKenzie punt 58 yards to the ASU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:3968% → 66%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.0%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush left for 2 yards gain to the ASU22 (#16 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
67.7%
(14:13) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush left for 9 yards gain to the ASU31 (#18 J.Anglin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
68.0%
(13:34) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU35, for 5 yards to the ASU36 (#5 T.Lawson; #18 J.Anglin), out of bounds PENALTY KSU Roughing The Passer (#96 J.Grimes) 15 yards from ASU36 to KSU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
69.4%
(13:13) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at KSU48, for 5 yards to the KSU44 (#12 K.Jones)Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
69.4%
(12:34) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 4 yards gain to the KSU40 (#7 L.Evans; #53 A.Miller), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
69.0%
(11:59) Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU38 (#44 B.Hopson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
69.3%
(11:21) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 6 yards to the KSU44 (#55 U.Nwoha)Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-1
68.2%
(10:42) Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush left for 1 yard loss to the KSU45 (#44 B.Hopson)Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+4
67.1%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at KSU48, for 4 yards to the KSU41 (#11 T.Christopher; #9 I.Paul)Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
65.9%
(09:08) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 31 yards to the KSU10 fair catch by #11 B.Munroe at KSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 1:3835% → 36%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
65.3%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #9 D.Bryson caught at KSU22, for 16 yards to the KSU26 (#4 M.Shahid; #15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
65.0%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 L.Murrell rush left for 49 yards gain (11) to the ASU25 (#13 K.Williams) PENALTY KSU Holding (#15 D.Morgan) 10 yards from KSU37 to KSU27Similar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 9
OWN 27
+10
63.8%
(08:21) Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush right for 10 yards gain to the KSU37, out of bounds at KSU37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
63.0%
(07:55) Shotgun #21 T.Morgan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU40 (#5 F.Hamilton; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
63.5%
(07:35) Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short left to #7 N.Dean thrown to KSU50 broken up by #0 D.HendersonSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+5
64.0%
PENALTY ASU Offside (#54 R.Reese) 5 yards from KSU40 to KSU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
62.8%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 L.Murrell rush middle for 0 yards to the KSU45 (#9 K.Moore; #5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-1
63.6%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Williams rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KSU44 (#10 T.Carter; #9 K.Moore), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:2569% → 74%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
69.2%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KSU34 (#13 C.Miller; #0 P.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
69.7%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush left for 0 yards to the KSU34 (#53 A.Miller)Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
69.7%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at KSU26, for 10 yards to the KSU24 (#27 J.Holmes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
69.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at KSU14, for 10 yards to the KSU14 (#11 T.Christopher; #27 J.Holmes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
74.1%
(04:45) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at KSU00, for 14 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:42, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:1436% → 41%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
63.9%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short left to #19 R.Jesiolowski caught at KSU24, for 6 yards to the KSU27 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
63.2%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU30 (#30 G.Taylor)Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
63.5%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU33 (#5 F.Hamilton; #13 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+47
62.8%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete deep middle to #15 J.Rogers caught at ASU20, for 47 yards to the ASU20 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
58.4%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ASU13 (#4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
58.2%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush left for 2 yards gain to the ASU11 (#9 K.Moore; #98 S.Woods)Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
60.8%
(01:58) #19 R.Jesiolowski rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU08 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.3%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Bryson thrown to ASU00 broken up by #16 J.DrewSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
59.3%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:23 #89 D.Kinney kick attempt good (H: #60 B.Walters, LS: #57 B.Blanton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:5268% → 67%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
68.0%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU35, for 28 yards to the KSU47 (#7 L.Evans; #9 I.Paul), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
70.8%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #17 J.Bush caught at KSU43, for 4 yards to the KSU43 (#0 P.Fisher)Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
70.9%
PENALTY ASU False Start 5 yards from KSU43 to KSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
70.3%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #2 C.Cobb thrown to KSU15Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
68.9%
(00:33) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #17 J.Bush thrown to KSU40Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
67.1%
(00:25) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 37 yards to the KSU11 fair catch by #11 B.Munroe at KSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:1635% → 35%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
65.4%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right to #4 Z.Booker thrown to KSU30 PENALTY ASU Roughing The Passer (#16 J.Drew) 15 yards from KSU11 to KSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
64.7%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right thrown to KSU30 QB hurried by #30 G.Taylor PENALTY KSU Holding (#55 M.Guevara) 10 yards from KSU26 to KSU16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+12
65.2%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 L.Murrell rush left for 12 yards gain to the KSU28 (#5 F.Hamilton; #0 D.Henderson), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:3265% → 65%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU28, for 7 yards to the ASU32 (#5 T.Lawson)Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
66.8%
(14:28) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ASU44 (#13 C.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
67.5%
(13:42) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU49 (#44 B.Hopson)Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
67.5%
(13:00) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at KSU46, for 5 yards to the KSU46 (#7 L.Evans), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
67.6%
(12:21) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #10 J.Bonelli caught at KSU29, for 18 yards to the KSU28 (#18 J.Anglin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
68.5%
(11:48) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSU27 (#11 T.Christopher; #0 P.Fisher)Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
68.4%
(11:10) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU24 (#15 D.Morgan)Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
67.1%
(10:30) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to KSU20 broken up by #7 L.EvansSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
65.2%
(10:22) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 10:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 13TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 5:4240% → 67%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
60.4%
(10:20) Shotgun #9 D.Bryson rush right for 12 yards gain to the KSU36 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.8%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Rogers thrown to KSU45Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
59.5%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush middle for 9 yards gain to the KSU45 (#92 E.Sherman; #4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
57.1%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU47 (#9 K.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.4%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Munroe thrown to ASU45 QB hurried by #54 R.ReeseSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
57.1%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush left for 4 yards gain to the ASU49 (#16 J.Drew; #98 S.Woods)Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+7
56.2%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short middle to #11 B.Munroe caught at ASU45, for 7 yards to the ASU42 (#9 K.Moore; #4 M.Shahid), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
55.5%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #11 B.Munroe caught at ASU33, for 9 yards to the ASU33, out of bounds at ASU33Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+15
53.4%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush right for 15 yards gain to the ASU18 (#9 K.Moore; #15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
53.0%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short left to #21 T.Morgan caught at ASU23, for 3 yards to the ASU15 (#16 J.Drew; #3 N.Flores)Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
52.8%
(06:32) Shotgun #21 T.Morgan rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU13 (#34 M.McShan)Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+7
54.1%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ASU06 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.1%
(05:16) Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush left for 0 yards to the ASU06 (#3 N.Flores)Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.4%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Munroe thrown to ASU00Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.6%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24 #89 D.Kinney kick attempt good (H: #60 B.Walters, LS: #57 B.Blanton) #89 D.Kinney kick attempt good (H: #60 B.Walters, LS: #57 B.Blanton) PENALTYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:0141% → 68%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
40.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (#50 W.Saxton) 5 yards from ASU24 to ASU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+6
40.1%
(04:18) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU25, for 6 yards to the ASU25 (#12 K.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
40.2%
(03:47) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU27 (#15 D.Morgan) PENALTY KSU Illegal Use Of Hands (#15 D.Morgan) 10 yards from ASU27 to ASU37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
41.1%
(03:21) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #0 N.Burris caught at KSU49, for 16 yards to the KSU47 (#7 L.Evans; #12 K.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.6%
(02:51) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #3 H.Summers thrown to KSU37 broken up by #31 K.RussellSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
43.9%
(02:47) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU44 (#11 T.Christopher) PENALTY ASU Holding (#72 S.Wiggins) 10 yards from KSU47 to ASU43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+9
40.2%
(02:23) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 9 yards gain to the KSU48 (#44 B.Hopson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+46
40.5%
(01:42) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at KSU50, for 46 yards to the KSU02 (#4 A.Ford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.6%
(01:19) #9 T.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:19 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:5143% → 48%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.6%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right to #19 R.Jesiolowski thrown to KSU30 QB hurried by #92 E.ShermanSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.0%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 11 yards gain to the KSU36 (#92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
54.6%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short middle to #24 B.Woods III caught at KSU39, for 6 yards to the KSU42 (#16 J.Drew; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
52.4%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU44 (#20 T.Grant)Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
52.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU47 (#20 T.Grant; #8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
51.5%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short middle to #24 B.Woods III caught at KSU49, for 2 yards to the KSU49 (#9 K.Moore)Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-2
50.9%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #15 J.Rogers caught at KSU46, for 2 yards loss to the KSU47 (#6 A.McGhee; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
53.3%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short middle to #24 B.Woods III caught at ASU45, for 9 yards to the ASU44 (#16 J.Drew; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
52.4%
(12:23) Shotgun #6 L.Murrell rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU44 (#9 K.Moore; #10 T.Carter), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5765% → 77%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
65.3%
(12:18) No Huddle #27 J.Lee rush right for 7 yards gain to the KSU49 (#7 L.Evans)Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
66.5%
(11:50) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSU47 (#96 J.Grimes)Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+14
65.8%
(11:13) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 14 yards gain to the KSU33 (#44 B.Hopson; #7 L.Evans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
68.2%
(10:32) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #23 S.Baggett caught at KSU30, for 10 yards to the KSU23 (#31 K.Russell; #18 J.Anglin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
68.4%
(09:54) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU22 (#13 C.Miller; #96 J.Grimes)Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
68.4%
(09:13) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to KSU15 broken up by #12 K.Jones QB hurried by #55 U.NwohaSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+7
66.2%
(09:08) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush right for 7 yards gain to the KSU15 (#9 I.Paul)Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+33
77.0%
(08:21) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 08:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 17MISSED FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 5:0330% → 28%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.9%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Bryson thrown to ASU42 broken up by #16 J.DrewSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
71.0%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete deep middle to #15 J.Rogers thrown to ASU40 PENALTY ASU Holding (#4 M.Shahid) 10 yards from KSU40 to KSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
50
+10
66.9%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ASU40 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
66.1%
(07:37) PENALTY KSU False Start 5 yards from ASU40 to ASU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
68.1%
(07:18) Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Bryson thrown to ASU46 broken up by #0 D.HendersonSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+11
68.9%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #11 B.Munroe caught at ASU37, for 11 yards to the ASU34 (#9 K.Moore)Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
65.9%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU28 (#6 A.McGhee; #20 T.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
63.3%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ASU17 (#94 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
63.2%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins rush left for 0 yards to the ASU17 (#5 F.Hamilton), out of bounds PENALTY KSU Holding (#76 N.Milovac) 10 yards from ASU17 to ASU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+2
66.1%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Morgan rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU25 (#4 M.Shahid; #15 B.Greil)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 18
OPP 25
+6
67.2%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Woods III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU19 (#15 B.Greil)Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+5
68.3%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 R.Collins pass complete short right to #24 B.Woods III caught at ASU25, for 5 yards to the ASU14 (#6 A.McGhee; #3 N.Flores)Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
71.8%
(03:01) #89 D.Kinney field goal attempt from 32 yards NO GOOD (H: #60 B.Walters, LS: #57 B.Blanton), clock 02:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18END OF GAME
13 plays · 34 yds · 2:4084% → 96%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.3%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU24 (#11 T.Christopher)Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
86.0%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU24 (#31 K.Russell; #6 M.Patterson)Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
85.6%
(02:07) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #23 S.Baggett caught at ASU24, for 7 yards to the ASU31, out of bounds at ASU31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
89.4%
(01:59) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush left for 12 yards gain to the ASU43 (#0 P.Fisher; #18 J.Anglin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.6%
(01:50) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 3 yards gain to the ASU46 (#44 B.Hopson; #0 P.Fisher)Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
90.7%
(01:46) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU50 (#13 C.Miller). #44 B.Hopson injured on the playSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 3
50
+6
95.2%
(00:42) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 6 yards gain to the KSU44 (#0 P.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
96.2%
(00:11) Kneel down by Arkansas State at KSU46 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:19
(01:19) #9 T.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:19 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
+27.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38
(01:46) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU50 (#13 C.Miller). #44 B.Hopson injured on the play
+21.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48
Timeout Kennesaw State, clock 01:48
-21.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com