2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:45 · Daniel Kinney 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime per score still needed
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:38: Coleman Bennett run for 19 yds for a TD (Britton Williams PAT MISSED) — KENN win probability +1.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:45: Daniel Kinney 29 yd FG GOOD — KENN win probability +5.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:45: Timeout Wake Forest, clock 09:45 — WAKE win probability +1.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:05: Connor Calvert 22 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +6.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:18: Timeout Wake Forest, clock 08:18 — KENN win probability +9.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10KENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 12:29WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt87.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:10WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 32, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.5%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%average punt
- Q1 1:21KENN 4th & 2 at WAKE 37, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%57% to convertField goal15.7%−0.440% to makePunt15.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:40WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 48, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.1%average punt
- Q2 10:24KENN 4th & 7 at WAKE 18, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snapGo for it17.9%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call18.1%79% to makePunt16.1%−2.0average punt
- Q2 8:35WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 28, up 1Close callPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it81.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:31KENN 4th & 12 at KENN 27, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it16.8%−1.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q2 6:01WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 43, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.5%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q2 4:11KENN 4th & 9 at midfield, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.4%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q2 1:03WAKE 4th & 12 at KENN 49, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snapGo for it77.7%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q2 0:19KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 24, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it19.2%−0.951% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%average punt
- Q3 9:45KENN 4th & 7 at WAKE 11, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snapGo for it23.4%−0.732% to convertField goalTheir call24.1%87% to makePunt15.9%−8.2average punt
- Q3 8:10WAKE 4th & 10 at KENN 49, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it66.6%−1.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.3%average punt
- Q3 5:37KENN 4th & 18 at KENN 12, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it29.9%−6.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.5%average punt
- Q3 3:05WAKE 4th & 3 at KENN 5, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snapGo for it65.5%45% to convertField goalTheir call63.5%−2.092% to makePunt49.1%−16.4average punt
- Q4 8:18WAKE 4th & 1 at KENN 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.7%71% to convertField goal66.7%−5.062% to makePunt55.9%−15.9average punt
- Q4 6:42KENN 4th & 15 at KENN 37, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it28.0%−4.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q4 2:07WAKE 4th & 14 at KENN 44, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snapGo for it61.7%−3.019% to convertField goal62.6%−2.227% to makePuntTheir call64.8%average punt
- Q4 1:51KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 17, down 1Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 28.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.2%−1.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.5%average punt
- Q4 1:51KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 17, down 1Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 28.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.2%−1.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1KENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:58WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:38KENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call14.8%97% to makeGo for two14.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:5791% → 90%
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-10
90.5%
Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WAKE 34Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
90.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 5 yds to the WAKE 39Similar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
90.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 15 yds to the KENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
89.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 7 yds to the KENN 19Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+12
89.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 12 yds to the KENN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1410% → 13%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
89.4%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 42Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
89.3%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 13 yds to the WAKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
89.0%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 21 yds to the WAKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
88.6%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gerard Bullock Jr. for 2 yds to the WAKE 21Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
87.3%
Coleman Bennett run for 19 yds for a TD (Britton Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1988% → 87%
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-3
87.7%
Robby Ashford sacked by Roderick Daniels for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 4DOWNS7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4013% → 14%
WAKEDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3487% → 86%
KENNDrive 6MISSED FG12 plays · 73 yds · 3:0214% → 16%
WAKEDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4385% → 84%
Q2 8:35
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Cal Joseph punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Benyard at the KENN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5917% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:3085% → 84%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
84.6%
PENALTY KennSt Delay Of Game 5 yards from Wake26 to Wake31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+11
85.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 11 yds to the WAKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
85.2%
Robby Ashford sacked by Donovan Westmoreland for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 40Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
83.5%
Cal Joseph punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Benyard at the KENN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 1:5017% → 16%
WAKEDrive 11PUNT15 plays · 31 yds · 3:0183% → 82%
Q2 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
82.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 9 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
82.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 18 yds to the KENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
83.4%
PENALTY Wake False Start (Hernandez,Carlos) 5 yards from KennSt47 to Wake48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-5
84.7%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass complete short left to Clark,Ty caught at KennSt46, for 12 yards to the KennSt29 (Hopson,Baron) PENALTY Wake Illegal Shift 5 yards from KennSt41 to KennSt46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-2
84.5%
Robby Ashford sacked by Tylon Dunlap for a loss of 2 yards to the KENN 48Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+5
83.1%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass incomplete short right to Hernandez,Carlos thrown to KennSt40 PENALTY KennSt Offside (Westmoreland,Donovan) 5 yards from KennSt48 to KennSt43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 7
OPP 44
-5
82.8%
PENALTY Wake False Start (Richard,Clinton) 5 yards from KennSt44 to KennSt49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
81.8%
Cal Joseph punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Benyard at the KENN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3516% → 15%
Q2 0:19
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+36
85.3%
Joshua Huiet punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Holding (Myles Turpin) to the WAKE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13MISSED FG6 plays · 23 yds · 0:1484% → 81%
KENNDrive 14FG16 plays · 64 yds · 5:1019% → 30%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
76.7%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 23 yds to the WAKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 1:2371% → 69%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
73.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 7 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 2:2831% → 33%
WAKEDrive 17FG5 plays · 60 yds · 2:2368% → 76%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+53
67.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Karate Brenson for 41 yds to the KENN 24 for a 1ST down Kennesaw State Penalty, (12 Yards) to the KENN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18PUNT12 plays · 8 yds · 3:1126% → 25%
Q3 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
73.3%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Alexander Diggs for 7 yds to the KENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
72.1%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 19 yds to the WAKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 30
OWN 36
-3
73.6%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Jayden Loving for a loss of 3 yards to the KENN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19Uncategorized16 plays · 43 yds · 6:2273% → 72%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
72.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to JaMario Clements for 7 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
70.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 5 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
72.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 4 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
73.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eni Falayi for 17 yds to the KENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
75.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 5 yds to the KENN 27Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-15
72.0%
Wake Forest Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the KENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 20PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 1:3338% → 35%
Q4 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-5
62.9%
PENALTY KennSt False Start (Benyard,Gabriel) 5 yards from KennSt44 to KennSt39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-2
63.6%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 2 yards to the KENN 37Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
65.5%
Joshua Huiet punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Carlos Hernandez at the WAKE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT12 plays · 36 yds · 4:2662% → 71%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Chris Barnes for 4 yds to the WAKE 24Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+23
59.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-10
71.8%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Ashford,Robby pass complete short middle to Barnes,Chris caught at KennSt42, for 15 yards to the KennSt22 (Paul,Isaac) PENALTY Wake Holding (Siani,Melvin) 10 yards from KennSt37 to KennSt47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+1
69.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ty Clark III for 1 yd to the KENN 46Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
70.5%
Cal Joseph punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Benyard at the KENN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22DOWNS6 plays · 1 yds · 0:1235% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · -9 yds · 1:4580% → 87%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
80.0%
(01:49) Kneel down by Wake Forest at KennSt22 for loss of 5 yards.Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 15
OPP 22
-2
83.6%
(01:07) Kneel down by Wake Forest at KennSt24 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 24
-2
87.1%
(00:33) Kneel down by Wake Forest at KennSt26 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+12.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:18
Timeout Wake Forest, clock 08:18
-9.1
FG · Q3 3:05
Connor Calvert 22 yd FG GOOD
+6.3