Ohio

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2182nd
  Defense+0.1335th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.0%70th
  Defense43.6%32nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2759th
  Defense+1.3416th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1051st
  Defense+0.0656th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3788th
  Defense+0.2728th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.8%68th
  Defense48.7%34th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.7%78th
  Defense33.2%25th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9731st
  Defense2.9174th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.3%42nd
  Defense21.6%85th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.3%74th
  Defense16.9%61st

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   FAU
2. L
   PSU
3. L
   ISU
4. W
   FOR
5. L
   KENT
6. W
   AKR
7. W
   WMU
8. W
   NIU
9. W
   BUF
10. W
    M-OH
11. W
    BALL
12. W
    BGSU
13. L
    TOL
14. W
    WYO

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio.

Players, 2022

1. Kurtis RourkeQB280 plays · +0.241 pts/play · 59th of 234 QBs
   1.26WAR0.71 to 1.91
2. Sieh BanguraRB218 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 27th of 384 RBs
   0.55WAR0.31 to 0.76
3. CJ HarrisQB115 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 135th of 234 QBs
   0.39WAR0.18 to 0.60
4. Sam WigluszWR68 plays · +0.205 pts/play · 30th of 455 WRs
   0.26WAR0.14 to 0.38
5. Jacoby JonesWR40 plays · +0.286 pts/play · 48th of 455 WRs
   0.21WAR0.15 to 0.27
6. James BosticWR33 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 191st of 455 WRs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.16
7. Miles CrossWR42 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 225th of 455 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.15
8. Nathanial VakosPK20 plays · +0.229 pts/play · 32nd of 110 kickers
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  366366118th of 129Roster talent: 366, 118th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  112112121st of 129Recruiting: 112, 121st of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  42%42%92nd of 128Returning production: 42%, 92nd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −4.6−4.684th of 129SP+ rating: −4.6, 84th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at KENTQ4 12:04 4th & 1 at OHIO 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
2. at WYOQ4 4:17 4th & 3 at WYO 27, up 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
3. at KENTQ4 6:57 4th & 6 at KENT 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. vs FORQ3 7:00 4th & 12 at FOR 29, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
5. at KENTQ3 12:18 4th & 4 at KENT 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
6. at BALLQ3 8:52 4th & 6 at BALL 35, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
7. at BALLQ4 2:44 4th & 2 at BALL 19, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at WYOQ3 12:45 4th & 4 at OHIO 49, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

1st of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   FAU
2. L

   PSU
3. L

   ISU
4. W

   FOR
5. L

   KENT
6. W

   AKR
7. W

   WMU
8. W

   NIU
9. W

   BUF
10. W

    M-OH
11. W

    BALL
12. W

    BGSU
13. L

    TOL
14. W

    WYO

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Ohio's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.48
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock−0.21
• Timeouts+0.43
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.50

Game by game

• FAUW 41-38 vs FAU29% → 84%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +17, Possession & field position +3
• PSUL 10-46 at PSU3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• ISUL 10-43 at ISU8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −11
• FORW 59-52 vs FOR85% → 87%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +15, Clock +1
• KENTL 24-31 at KENT17% → 50%Before kickoff −33 · On the field +32: Timeouts +21, Clock −14
• AKRW 55-34 vs AKR75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +29, Clock −1
• WMUW 33-14 at WMU41% → 99%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +57, Clock +2
• NIUW 24-17 vs NIU34% → 99%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +47, Clock +1
• BUFW 45-24 vs BUF39% → 100%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +53, Clock −1
• M-OHW 37-21 at M-OH48% → 99%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +54, Clock +2
• BALLW 32-18 at BALL55% → 99%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +48, Clock +3
• BGSUW 38-14 vs BGSU55% → 100%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +44, Possession & field position −1
• TOLL 7-17 vs TOL36% → 2%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• WYOW 30-27 at WYO56% → 87%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +18

Points of win probability, from Ohio's side.

Closest call

OHIO 30-27 WYO (2022) - Ohio dropped to a 10.5% win probability before pulling it out.