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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · CJ Harris pass complete to Tyler Foster for 10 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:14: Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +18.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:04: Jordon Vaughn run for 5 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +50.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:04: Nathanial Vakos 46 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +40.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · OT 0:00: John Hoyland 29 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +16.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: CJ Harris pass complete to Tyler Foster for 10 yds for a TD — OHIO win probability +58.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 4:05WYO 4th & 9 at OHIO 44, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.132% to convertField goal44.9%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q2 13:28OHIO 4th & 7 at WYO 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snapGo for it48.5%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call48.8%64% to makePunt45.1%−3.7average punt
- Q2 9:48WYO 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snapGo for it51.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 4:47OHIO 4th & 12 at WYO 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snapGo for it45.5%−0.624% to convertField goalTheir call46.1%42% to makePunt45.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:14WYO 4th & 8 at midfield, up 3Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snapGo for it52.8%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:11OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it40.4%−2.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q2 0:04WYO 4th & 17 at OHIO 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snapGo for it51.5%−1.415% to convertField goalTheir call52.9%45% to makePunt52.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:45OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 49, down 6Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snapGo for it40.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.6%−0.8average punt
- Q3 10:35WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 21, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it62.8%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%average punt
- Q3 9:05OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 37, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.3%−1.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q3 7:21WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 19, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snapGo for it61.9%−3.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.1%average punt
- Q3 1:05WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 36, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it42.2%−4.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.4%average punt
- Q4 14:54OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 17, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it45.9%−6.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%average punt
- Q4 10:31OHIO 4th & 13 at WYO 41, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it50.9%−2.721% to convertField goal51.7%−1.932% to makePuntTheir call53.6%average punt
- Q4 8:20WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 12, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snapGo for it39.2%−3.030% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.2%average punt
- Q4 4:17OHIO 4th & 3 at WYO 27, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call58.2%−2.962% to makePunt37.5%−23.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 10:12WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two46.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:23OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick54.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:58WYO Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.3%97% to makeGo for two49.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:14OHIO Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.0%97% to makeGo for two48.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:04WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−2.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3344% → 48%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
44.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 5 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
44.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 6 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
44.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Caleb Driskill for 1 yd to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
44.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 21 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
45.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 9 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3653% → 55%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
46.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Miles Cross for 10 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-3
46.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+15
47.9%
CJ Harris pass incomplete for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
44.7%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 34 yds for a TD (Jonah Wieland pass to Justin Holloway for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3FUMBLE10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1145% → 46%
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
45.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 14 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 4
50
+5
46.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 5 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+3
45.5%
Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds , Sam Wiglusz returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 17 Sam Wiglusz fumbled, recovered by Wyom Cole DeMarzoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4TD1 play · 17 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
51.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 17 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FG13 plays · 49 yds · 5:2250% → 51%
WYODrive 6PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:3250% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7MISSED FG12 plays · 44 yds · 4:5249% → 46%
WYODrive 8PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 2:2955% → 56%
OHIODrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4943% → 40%
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
57.2%
CJ Harris sacked by Braden Siders for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10DOWNS11 plays · 30 yds · 0:5756% → 61%
OHIODrive 12PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0540% → 40%
WYODrive 13PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5964% → 62%
OHIODrive 14PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1539% → 36%
Q3 9:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
64.5%
Jack Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Wyatt Wieland at the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3966% → 64%
OHIODrive 16TD4 plays · 56 yds · 2:0339% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 4:0249% → 45%
OHIODrive 18PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0553% → 51%
WYODrive 19INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
51.5%
Andrew Peasley pass intercepted Torrie Cox Jr. return for 15 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 4:0255% → 54%
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
41.5%
CJ Harris sacked by Easton Gibbs for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 41 CJ Harris fumbled, recovered by Ohio CJ Harris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0246% → 43%
OHIODrive 22FG8 plays · 38 yds · 3:5859% → 77%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
41.1%
CJ Harris pass complete to Miles Cross for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0033% → 90%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 5 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
33.6%
Peasley, Andrew pass incomplete to Brown, Alex, PENALTY OHIO pass interference 15 yards to the WYOMING45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WYOMING.Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
36.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 13 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
37.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 31 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+11
36.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 11 yds to the Ohio 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24FG15 plays · 55 yds · 1:5420% → 62%
Q4 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+8
79.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 8 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+24
82.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Alec Burton for 24 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+8
77.4%
Harris, CJ pass incomplete to Jones, Jacoby, PENALTY WYOMING pass interference 8 yards to the WYOMING32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26FG5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
65.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 13 yds to the Ohio 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
CJ Harris pass complete to Tyler Foster for 10 yds for a TD
-58.7
TD · Q4 2:04
Jordon Vaughn run for 5 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+50.5
FG · Q4 0:04
Nathanial Vakos 46 yd FG GOOD
-40.2