Ohio

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0720th
  Defense+0.1640th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.2%31st
  Defense43.4%40th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.079th
  Defense+1.1861st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0945th
  Defense+0.0665th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0918th
  Defense+0.2533rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.4%23rd
  Defense48.3%39th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.4%56th
  Defense33.5%45th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0668th
  Defense2.9739th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.3%74th
  Defense18.3%34th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.1%45th
  Defense2.1%58th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   KENT
2. L
   UK
3. L
   MRSH
4. W
   IDHO
5. W
   EIU
6. L
   CMU
7. L
   BGSU
8. W
   AKR
9. L
   WMU
10. W
    BUF
11. L
    NIU
12. W
    M-OH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio.

Players, 2014

1. JD SpragueQB167 plays · +0.214 pts/play · 130th of 199 QBs
   0.67WAR0.43 to 0.92
2. Derrius VickQB155 plays · +0.221 pts/play · 133rd of 199 QBs
   0.64WAR0.38 to 0.92
3. A.J. OuelletteRB125 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 67th of 350 RBs
   0.29WAR0.20 to 0.39
4. Josiah YazdaniPK15 plays · +0.435 pts/play · 40th of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
5. Daz'mond PattersonRB90 plays · +0.071 pts/play · 193rd of 350 RBs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.20
6. Mitch BonnstetterP46 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 31st of 94 punters
   0.12WAR0.03 to 0.21
7. Jordan ReidWR22 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 247th of 469 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
8. Sebastian SmithWR27 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 275th of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.14 of the 0.23 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at M-OHQ4 1:47 4th & 1 at M-OH 25, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−9.7 pts
2. at M-OHQ3 6:07 4th & 1 at OHIO 41, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
3. vs EIUQ4 11:37 4th & 2 at EIU 34, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at KENTQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at KENT 45, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. vs AKRQ2 3:18 4th & 2 at OHIO 37, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs EIUQ2 6:47 4th & 5 at EIU 39, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at MRSHQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at OHIO 42, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs AKRQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at OHIO 46, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

29th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   KENT
2. L

   UK
3. L

   MRSH
4. W

   IDHO
5. W

   EIU
6. L

   CMU
7. L

   BGSU
8. W

   AKR
9. L

   WMU
10. W

    BUF
11. L

    NIU
12. W

    M-OH

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Ohio's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.33
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Timeouts+0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.32

Game by game

• KENTW 17-14 at KENT42% → 95%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• UKL 3-20 at UK25% → 1%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts +1
• MRSHL 14-44 at MRSH8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −11
• IDHOW 36-24 vs IDHO78% → 98%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1
• EIUW 34-19 vs EIU73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +1
• CMUL 10-28 at CMU31% → 2%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −32
• BGSUL 13-31 vs BGSU54% → 1%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −53, Clock −2
• AKRW 23-20 vs AKR34% → 91%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2
• WMUL 21-42 at WMU23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −26
• BUFW 37-14 vs BUF52% → 100%Before kickoff +2 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +1
• NIUL 14-21 vs NIU40% → 4%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −45, Clock −3
• M-OHW 24-21 at M-OH53% → 95%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Ohio's side.

Closest call

OHIO 30-27 WYO (2022) - Ohio dropped to a 10.5% win probability before pulling it out.