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Advanced stats
CollegeFootballData's play-by-play measures of how efficient and explosive a team was, placed against every other FBS team. How it works →
Profile vs. FBS, 2020
Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.
- EPA per playExpected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
- Success rateShare of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
- ExplosivenessAverage EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
- Rushing EPAEPA per designed run.
- Passing EPAEPA per pass play.
- Standard downsSuccess rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
- Passing downsSuccess rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
- Line yardsRushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
- Stuff rateShare of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
- HavocShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Expected points
YardLine's expected-points model values every snap by what a drive from that spot is worth on average, so a drive can be judged against where it started. How it works →
Drives vs. expectation, 2020
Points over expected per drive, from where each drive started.
Per drive against an average FBS opponent, neutral field.
Points over expected per trip inside the opponent's 40.
Average expected points where drives started.
Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.
Game by game
Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio.
Players
YardLine's player model credits every play's value to the players involved, so each one's season can be measured in wins above a typical backup. How it works →
Players, 2020
Quarterback is the most valuable starting slot by a wide margin: the gap between a top-decile and a median FBS quarterback is about twice the gap at any other position.
- De'Montre TuggleRB48 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 182nd of 338 RBs0.17WAR0.13 to 0.21
- Kurtis RourkeQB58 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 154th of 212 QBs0.12WAR0.02 to 0.24
- O'Shaan AllisonRB14 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 276th of 338 RBs0.05WAR0.03 to 0.06
- Shane HooksWR12 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 308th of 409 WRs0.04WAR0.02 to 0.05
- Isiah CoxWR9 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 340th of 409 WRs0.03WAR0.02 to 0.04
- Armani RogersQB17 plays · +0.085 pts/play · 198th of 212 QBs0.03WAR−0.04 to 0.08
- Ryan LuehrmanTE8 plays · +0.053 pts/play · 108th of 191 TEs0.01WAR−0.01 to 0.02
- Jerome BucknerWR3 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 395th of 409 WRs0.01WAR0.00 to 0.01
Every player (9)
- Cameron OdomWR5 plays · +0.044 pts/play · 397th of 409 WRs0.00WAR0.00 to 0.01
By position group, against FBS
Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.
Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works
Talent and roster
How much talent the roster had, by recruiting ratings, and how much of it showed up on the field, against every other FBS team. How it works →
What it had and what it did, 2020
- Roster talent: 305, 110th of 127 in FBSRoster talent247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
- Recruiting: 122, 121st of 127 in FBSRecruitingAverage 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
- Returning production: 54%, 85th of 127 in FBSReturning productionShare of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
- SP+ rating: −3.2, 83rd of 127 in FBSSP+ ratingThe result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.
Talent conversion
Ohio's SP+ of −3.2 is 6.2 points above the −9.4 its roster talent predicts, 30th of 127 in FBS.
The same comparison on each side of the ball, positive is better for both.
Conversion by season
Fourth downs
YardLine's fourth-down model values going for it, kicking and punting on every real fourth down, so each call can be checked against the numbers. How it works →
Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020
Calls that matched the option with the best modeled win probability.
Summed over every call that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for it when going beat every other option by a point or more.
Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.
Costliest calls against the numbers
- at CMUQ4 0:28 4th & 15 at CMU 40, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−7.5 pts
- at CMUQ4 7:17 4th & 3 at OHIO 44, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
- vs AKRQ4 11:29 4th & 2 at AKR 11, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
- vs AKRQ4 8:05 4th & 4 at AKR 12, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
- vs BGSUQ1 7:05 4th & 2 at OHIO 46, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- at CMUQ2 9:09 4th & 2 at OHIO 11, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
- vs AKRQ3 2:23 4th & 12 at AKR 38, up 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
- vs AKRQ2 15:00 4th & 2 at OHIO 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts
Every call this season (19)
- Q1 1:174th & 7 at OHIO 39, down 7 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 9:094th & 2 at OHIO 11, down 1 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 7:324th & 23 at OHIO 26, tied · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 14:514th & 11 at CMU 28, tied · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q4 7:174th & 3 at OHIO 44, down 3 · Punted−2.4 pts
- Q4 3:124th & 17 at OHIO 4, down 3 · PuntedAgreed
- Q4 0:284th & 15 at CMU 40, down 3 · Went for it−7.5 pts
- Q1 8:024th & 10 at AKR 38, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 15:004th & 2 at OHIO 41, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q2 10:484th & 8 at AKR 49, up 14 · PuntedAgreed
- Q2 4:214th & 3 at OHIO 35, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q3 6:274th & 7 at AKR 27, up 4 · Kicked a field goalAgreed
- Q3 2:234th & 12 at AKR 38, up 7 · PuntedClose call
- Q4 11:294th & 2 at AKR 11, up 7 · Kicked a field goal−1.3 pts
- Q4 8:054th & 4 at AKR 12, up 7 · Kicked a field goalClose call
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
Tries that matched the option with the better modeled win probability.
Summed over every try that differed, in points of win probability.
Went for two when it beat kicking by a point or more.
Costliest tries against the numbers
Win probability
YardLine's model estimates each team's chance of winning before kickoff and again after every play, from the score, clock, down, distance and field position. How it works →
Record vs. expectation, 2020
78th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations
Expected wins adds up Ohio's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.
What moved it, 2020
Every game starts at Ohio's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →
- Scoreboard−0.01
- Possession & field position−0.02
- Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.20
Game by game
- CMUL 27-30 at CMU52% → 12%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −25, Possession & field position −2
- AKRW 24-10 vs AKR93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +12
- BGSUW 52-10 vs BGSU90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
Points of win probability, from Ohio's side.
Closest call
OHIO 30-27 WYO (2022) - Ohio dropped to a 10.5% win probability before pulling it out.
Season arc, 2020
Every completed game this season, in order - each tile is Ohio's own win-probability curve.
Biggest swings of 2020
The largest single-play change in Ohio's win probability this season - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
Stolen wins
Ohio's own lowest win probability at any point in a game it went on to win, across the whole archive - the deepest holes it climbed out of.
Let it slip
Ohio's own highest win probability at any point in a game it went on to lose, across the whole archive - the biggest leads it didn't hold.
Stock & rivalries
Stock
Ohio's leaguewide Elo rating, tracked like a stock price - built from game results and margins, not the model's own win-probability predictions.
Series & rivalries
Ohio's most-played opponents across the whole archive - open one for the full head-to-head history.