OHIO
Ohio 14 at Ball State 20
BALL2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey play
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OHIO · Drive 1MISSED FG · 7 plays · 44 yds
Q1 14:56
DC Pippin kickoff for 56 yds , Eamonn Dennis return for 15 yds to the OHIO 24
20.1%
0.0
Q1 14:44
Parker Navarro run for 44 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST down
18.2%
-1.9
Q1 14:17
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Dom Dorwart
16.7%
-1.5
Q1 14:08
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the BALL 31
16.7%
0.0
Q1 13:20
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass complete short middle to Hendricks,Chase caught at BSU16, for 16 yards to the BSU15 (Chea,Alfred; Yates,Willizhuan) PENALTY OU Holding (Jones,Jordon) 10 yards from BSU31 to BSU41. NO PLAY.
16.7%
0.0
Q1 12:44
Parker Navarro pass complete to Dom Dorwart for 9 yds to the BALL 32
16.7%
0.0
Q1 12:17
David Dellenbach 49 yd FG MISSED
17.1%
+0.4
BALL · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q1 12:10
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 29
20.2%
+3.1
Q1 11:33
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 1 yd to the BALL 30
20.2%
0.0
Q1 11:00
PENALTY BSU False Start (Cook,Tristan) 5 yards from BSU30 to BSU25. NO PLAY.
20.2%
0.0
Q1 10:43
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 27
20.2%
0.0
Q1 10:06
Adam Saul punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
20.0%
-0.2
OHIO · Drive 3DOWNS · 8 plays · 43 yds
Q1 9:58
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the BALL 45
16.8%
-3.3
Q1 9:27
Sieh Bangura run for 29 yds to the BALL 16 for a 1ST down
16.8%
+0.1
Q1 8:52
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Navarro,Parker pass incomplete short right to Hendricks,Chase thrown to BSU05 PENALTY OU Face Mask (Jones,Jordon) 15 yards from BSU16 to BSU31. NO PLAY.
16.5%
-0.4
Q1 8:45
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Chase Hendricks
16.5%
0.0
Q1 8:34
Parker Navarro run for 19 yds to the BALL 12
16.5%
0.0
Q1 7:52
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the BALL 8
16.8%
+0.4
Q1 7:49
Timeout Ball State, clock 07:49
16.5%
-0.3
Q1 7:31
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the BALL 7
16.5%
0.0
BALL · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q1 7:24
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 9
20.7%
+4.2
Q1 7:24
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Donovan Hamilton
20.7%
0.0
Q1 7:24
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Donovan Hamilton
20.7%
0.0
Q1 6:37
Adam Saul punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chase Hendricks at the 50 yard line
20.5%
-0.2
OHIO · Drive 5TD · 6 plays · 50 yds
Q1 6:37
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the BALL 46
16.4%
-4.1
Q1 6:37
Duncan Brune run for 7 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST down
16.4%
0.0
Q1 6:37
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 37 yds to the BALL 2 for a 1ST down
16.1%
-0.3
Q1 6:37
Duncan Brune run for 1 yd to the BALL 1
16.1%
0.0
Q1 4:39
Duncan Brune run for 1 yd for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
9.5%
-6.6
Q1 4:32
David Dellenbach kickoff for 60 yds , TJ Horton return for 28 yds to the BALL 37 Ohio Penalty, Personal Foul (Eamonn Dennis) to the BALL 48
18.0%
+8.5
BALL · Drive 6PUNT · 7 plays · 11 yds
Q1 4:23
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete
12.6%
-5.4
Q1 4:14
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
12.6%
0.0
Q1 3:34
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 10 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST down
12.6%
-0.1
Q1 3:05
TJ Horton run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 41
13.4%
+0.9
Q1 2:39
Kiael Kelly pass complete to TJ Horton for 3 yds to the OHIO 38
13.3%
-0.2
Q1 2:03
Qua Ashley run for a loss of 3 yards to the OHIO 41
13.3%
0.0
Q1 1:23
Adam Saul punt for 41 yds for a touchback
13.0%
-0.3
OHIO · Drive 7PUNT · 13 plays · 32 yds
Q1 1:16
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the OHIO 21
10.0%
-3.1
Q1 0:00
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 6 yds to the OHIO 27
10.5%
+0.5
Q2 14:49
Parker Navarro pass complete to Jake Bruno for 8 yds to the OHIO 35 for a 1ST down
10.6%
+0.1
Q2 14:31
Ohio Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Parker Navarro) to the OHIO 28
10.6%
0.0
Q2 14:20
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 16 yds to the OHIO 44
10.6%
0.0
Q2 13:53
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST down
10.1%
-0.5
Q2 13:07
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the BALL 48
10.1%
0.0
Q2 12:33
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Jake Bruno
10.1%
0.0
Q2 12:23
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 9 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST down
10.1%
0.0
Q2 11:50
Parker Navarro sacked by Nathan Voorhis for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 41
9.9%
-0.2
Q2 11:22
Parker Navarro sacked by Nathan Voorhis for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 48
9.9%
0.0
Q2 10:41
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Chase Hendricks
10.7%
+0.8
Q2 10:32
Magnus Haines punt for 48 yds for a touchback
10.7%
0.0
BALL · Drive 8PUNT · 10 plays · 37 yds
Q2 10:29
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Donovan Hamilton
13.3%
+2.7
Q2 10:19
Kiael Kelly run for 15 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST down
13.3%
0.0
Q2 9:56
Kiael Kelly run for 9 yds to the BALL 44
13.3%
0.0
Q2 9:21
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
13.6%
+0.3
Q2 8:49
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Donovan Hamilton
14.0%
+0.3
Q2 8:33
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 10 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST down
14.0%
0.0
Q2 8:15
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the OHIO 43
14.8%
+0.8
Q2 7:39
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian Magwood
13.7%
-1.0
Q2 7:31
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Elisha Durham
13.6%
-0.1
Q2 7:21
Adam Saul punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIO 30
13.4%
-0.2
OHIO · Drive 9TD · 9 plays · 70 yds
Q2 7:06
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 14 yds to the OHIO 44 for a 1ST down
10.4%
-3.1
Q2 6:44
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 11 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST down
9.8%
-0.5
Q2 6:13
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the BALL 42
10.3%
+0.5
Q2 5:40
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Mason Williams
10.2%
-0.2
Q2 5:27
Parker Navarro run for 13 yds to the BALL 29 for a 1ST down
10.2%
0.0
Q2 4:48
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 11 yds to the BALL 18 for a 1ST down
10.4%
+0.2
Q2 4:14
Parker Navarro sacked by Nathan Voorhis for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 23
10.4%
0.0
Q2 3:32
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Mason Williams
10.4%
0.0
Q2 3:24
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 23 yds for a TD (David Dellenbach KICK)
4.5%
-5.9
BALL · Drive 10DOWNS · 19 plays · 71 yds
Q2 3:24
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
4.7%
+0.1
Q2 3:16
Qua Ashley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BALL 21
5.9%
+1.2
Q2 2:42
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 11 yds to the BALL 32
5.9%
+0.1
Q2 2:02
TJ Horton run for 3 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST down
5.4%
-0.6
Q2 2:00
Timeout Ball State, clock 02:00
5.4%
0.0
Q2 1:54
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 35
5.4%
0.0
Q2 1:54
Timeout Ohio, clock 01:54
5.5%
+0.1
Q2 1:43
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 40
5.5%
0.0
Q2 1:02
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 35 yds to the OHIO 25 for a 1ST down
6.4%
+1.0
Q2 0:52
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 4 yds to the OHIO 21
7.0%
+0.6
Q2 0:43
Kiael Kelly run for 20 yds to the OHIO 1 for a 1ST down
7.1%
0.0
Q2 0:34
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:34
7.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:32
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 2
7.0%
0.0
Q2 0:28
TJ Horton run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 4
7.0%
0.0
Q2 0:28
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:28
7.0%
0.0
Q2 0:17
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Maximus Webster for no gain to the OHIO 4
7.0%
0.0
Q2 0:07
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:07
7.0%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Koby Gross
7.0%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Koby Gross
7.0%
0.0
OHIO · Drive 11END OF HALF · 1 play · -2 yds
Q2 0:00
(00:00) Kneel down by Ohio at OU 02 for loss of 2 yards.
5.6%
-1.4
BALL · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 15:00
David Dellenbach kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.5%
-0.1
Q3 14:51
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 27
6.5%
+1.1
Q3 14:20
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete
6.5%
0.0
Q3 14:03
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 5 yds to the BALL 32
6.5%
0.0
Q3 13:25
Adam Saul punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIO 34
6.5%
0.0
OHIO · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q3 13:18
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the OHIO 36
5.6%
-0.9
Q3 12:48
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Jake Bruno
5.6%
0.0
Q3 12:41
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Chase Hendricks
5.6%
0.0
Q3 12:32
Magnus Haines punt for 64 yds for a touchback
5.6%
0.0
BALL · Drive 14TD · 13 plays · 80 yds
Q3 12:24
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Dahya Patel
6.4%
+0.8
Q3 12:09
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Elisha Durham for 7 yds to the BALL 27
6.4%
0.0
Q3 11:41
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 4 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST down
6.4%
0.0
Q3 11:10
(11:11) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BSU28 (Crable,Jay) PENALTY OU Face Mask (Crable,Jay) 15 yards from BSU31 to BSU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
6.4%
0.0
Q3 10:44
Jamarion McDougle run for 23 yds to the OHIO 31 for a 1ST down
6.6%
+0.2
Q3 10:04
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Kameron Anthony for 5 yds to the OHIO 26
7.6%
+1.0
Q3 9:37
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian Magwood
7.6%
0.0
Q3 9:29
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the OHIO 21 for a 1ST down
7.6%
0.0
Q3 8:51
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the OHIO 17
7.6%
0.0
Q3 8:08
Qua Ashley run for 5 yds to the OHIO 12
7.5%
-0.1
Q3 7:30
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 13
7.3%
-0.2
Q3 7:12
Timeout Ohio, clock 07:12
7.1%
-0.2
Q3 7:05
Kiael Kelly run for 13 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
17.2%
+10.1
OHIO · Drive 15DOWNS · 8 plays · 16 yds
Q3 7:00
DC Pippin kickoff for 60 yds , Eamonn Dennis return for 32 yds to the OHIO 37
16.0%
-1.3
Q3 6:56
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Duncan Brune
12.2%
-3.8
Q3 6:44
Parker Navarro run for 7 yds to the OHIO 44
12.2%
0.0
Q3 6:04
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST down
11.6%
-0.6
Q3 5:36
Duncan Brune run for 3 yds to the BALL 49
11.6%
0.0
Q3 4:56
Duncan Brune run for 2 yds to the BALL 47
11.9%
+0.3
Q3 4:24
Duncan Brune run for 4 yds to the BALL 43
12.8%
+0.9
Q3 3:48
Parker Navarro run for a loss of 4 yards to the BALL 47
13.2%
+0.4
BALL · Drive 16FG · 9 plays · 48 yds
Q3 3:36
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
16.9%
+3.7
Q3 3:05
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the OHIO 45
17.1%
+0.2
Q3 2:31
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Donovan Hamilton
17.9%
+0.9
Q3 2:25
(02:28) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete short right to Magwood,Qian thrown to OU 26 PENALTY OU Pass Interference (Thomeson,Jalen) 15 yards from OU 45 to OU 30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
17.9%
0.0
Q3 2:14
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 19 yds to the OHIO 11 for a 1ST down
18.4%
+0.5
Q3 1:53
TJ Horton run for 3 yds to the OHIO 8
18.9%
+0.5
Q3 1:07
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the OHIO 5
19.2%
+0.3
Q3 0:29
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete
17.7%
-1.6
Q3 0:25
Carson Holmer 22 yd FG GOOD
25.1%
+7.4
OHIO · Drive 17PUNT · 7 plays · 23 yds
Q3 0:25
DC Pippin kickoff for 55 yds
23.4%
-1.7
Q3 0:00
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 4 yds to the OHIO 29
18.4%
-5.0
Q4 14:53
Parker Navarro run for 15 yds to the OHIO 44 for a 1ST down
18.4%
0.0
Q4 14:01
Parker Navarro pass complete to Delaney Crawford for 43 yds to the BALL 13 for a 1ST down
17.3%
-1.1
Q4 13:50
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the OHIO 48
17.3%
0.0
Q4 13:08
Parker Navarro run for no gain to the OHIO 48
16.9%
-0.4
Q4 12:31
Magnus Haines punt for 49 yds
18.0%
+1.1
BALL · Drive 18PUNT · 9 plays · 34 yds
Q4 12:22
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 6
25.3%
+7.3
Q4 12:01
TJ Horton run for 11 yds to the BALL 17 for a 1ST down
25.3%
0.0
Q4 11:25
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Elisha Durham
25.3%
0.0
Q4 11:16
Qua Ashley run for 7 yds to the BALL 24
25.3%
0.0
Q4 10:46
TJ Horton run for 10 yds to the BALL 34 for a 1ST down
25.3%
0.0
Q4 10:02
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the BALL 35
25.3%
0.0
Q4 9:31
TJ Horton run for 2 yds to the BALL 37
25.4%
+0.1
Q4 8:53
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Koby Gross
25.4%
0.0
Q4 8:42
Adam Saul punt for 62 yds
25.4%
0.0
OHIO · Drive 19SF · 1 play · -2 yds
Q4 8:39
Parker Navarro run for 1 yd for a SAFETY Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by OHIO Sieh Bangura for a SAFETY
23.2%
-2.2
BALL · Drive 20PUNT · 7 plays · 22 yds
Q4 8:38
David Dellenbach kickoff for 59 yds , Maximus Webster return for no gain to the BALL 21
23.2%
0.0
Q4 8:28
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Jamarion McDougle for 18 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST down
29.6%
+6.4
Q4 8:05
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 40
29.9%
+0.3
Q4 7:24
(07:28) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete short right thrown to BSU42 PENALTY BSU Holding (Horton,TJ) 10 yards from BSU40 to BSU30. NO PLAY.
30.2%
+0.2
Q4 7:18
Eric Weatherly run for 6 yds to the BALL 36
29.6%
-0.6
Q4 6:42
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the BALL 43
32.6%
+3.0
Q4 6:02
Adam Saul punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chase Hendricks at the OHIO 19
33.0%
+0.4
OHIO · Drive 21PUNT · 6 plays · 10 yds
Q4 5:54
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the OHIO 20
24.0%
-9.0
Q4 5:12
Sieh Bangura run for 10 yds to the OHIO 30 for a 1ST down
21.6%
-2.4
Q4 4:40
Sieh Bangura run for no gain to the OHIO 30
21.6%
0.0
Q4 3:53
Sieh Bangura run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 29
20.7%
-0.9
Q4 3:13
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Chase Hendricks
20.2%
-0.5
Q4 3:04
Magnus Haines punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 30 , Qian Magwood returns for 7 yds to the BALL 30
20.2%
0.0
BALL · Drive 22TD · 14 plays · 70 yds
Q4 2:54
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the BALL 36
29.1%
+8.9
Q4 2:23
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 39
28.7%
-0.3
Q4 2:00
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the BALL 40 for a 1ST down
28.9%
+0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Ball State, clock 02:00
29.3%
+0.4
Q4 1:54
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qua Ashley
28.7%
-0.6
Q4 1:54
PENALTY OU Offside (Crable,Jay) 5 yards from BSU40 to BSU45. NO PLAY.
28.7%
0.0
Q4 1:43
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 48
28.7%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 3 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST down
26.7%
-1.9
Q4 1:13
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 7 yds to the OHIO 42
24.3%
-2.4
Q4 1:06
Qua Ashley run for a loss of 1 yard to the OHIO 43
26.4%
+2.1
Q4 1:06
Timeout Ball State, clock 01:06
26.4%
0.0
Q4 0:57
Qian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)
86.1%
+59.7
Q4 0:57
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:57
25.4%
-60.7
Q4 0:57
PENALTY OU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pearson,Tank) 15 yards from BSU35 to BSU50. NO PLAY.
21.7%
-3.7
OHIO · Drive 23END OF GAME · 11 plays · 45 yds
Q4 0:57
DC Pippin kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
86.0%
+64.3
Q4 0:43
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 9 yds to the OHIO 34
71.6%
-14.4
Q4 0:38
Timeout Ohio, clock 00:38
71.6%
0.0
Q4 0:31
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for no gain to the OHIO 34
71.6%
0.0
Q4 0:31
Parker Navarro run for 5 yds to the OHIO 39 for a 1ST down
71.6%
0.0
Q4 0:23
Parker Navarro pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 5 yds to the OHIO 44
71.9%
+0.3
Q4 0:14
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 13 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST down
71.7%
-0.3
Q4 0:09
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Dom Dorwart
70.4%
-1.2
Q4 0:02
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 13 yds to the BALL 30 for a 1ST down
70.4%
0.0
Q4 0:02
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:02
68.5%
-1.9
Q4 0:00
Parker Navarro pass incomplete to Chase Hendricks
63.2%
-5.3
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:57
DC Pippin kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
+64.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:57
Timeout Ball State, clock 00:57
-60.7
TD · Q4 0:57
Qian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)
+59.7