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TOL

Toledo 17 at Ohio 7

OHIO
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · Ford Field
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:58 · Jack Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the Toled 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−2.7Pregame prior−6.9Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:47: Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:48: Stuart, Jacquez rush for 2 yards to the TOLEDO21, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 9 yards to the TOLEDO10, NO PLAY. — TOL win probability +5.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:16: Thomas Cluckey 44 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +6.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:02: Dequan Finn pass incomplete — TOL win probability +4.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:36: Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +16.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:25OHIO 4th & 4 at TOL 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:26OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:01TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:08TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:16TOL 4th & 6 at OHIO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.8
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:58OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 30, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:44TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:54OHIO 4th & 11 at OHIO 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−3.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:05TOL 4th & 4 at OHIO 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−11.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:51OHIO 4th & 10 at TOL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:15OHIO 4th & 11 at TOL 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    38% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:32TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:15OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 30, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:43TOL 4th & 9 at OHIO 29, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:42OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 44, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:38TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:47OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:36TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0764% → 64%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
36.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
36.3%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
36.4%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+17
36.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 17 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
36.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+3
36.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
35.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 29 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4636% → 36%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
36.4%
CJ Harris run for 2 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
36.5%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sieh Bangura for no gain to the Ohio 47Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+4
36.2%
CJ Harris run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
36.3%
Jack Wilson punt for 47 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2764% → 65%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
36.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
35.9%
Dequan Finn run for 17 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
35.7%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+10
35.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 10 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
35.2%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-3
35.5%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Toled 43 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+7
35.6%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
35.3%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ohio 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:0936% → 35%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
35.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+10
35.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to James Bostic for 10 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
36.0%
Jacoby Jones run for 6 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+14
36.2%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 14 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
36.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-4
36.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sieh Bangura for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+5
35.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+27
35.4%
Jack Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the OHIO 15 OHIO Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0965% → 64%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
35.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 7 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-5
34.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-10
34.8%
Stuart, Jacquez rush for 7 yards to the TOLEDO39, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+3
35.4%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
35.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 59 yds, downed at the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 7:0836% → 48%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
35.6%
CJ Harris pass complete to Miles Cross for 15 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
35.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
36.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
36.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
36.2%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+13
35.1%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
37.1%
CJ Harris pass complete to Miles Cross for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
37.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+4
36.5%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
37.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 7 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-11
37.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the Toled 22 OHIO Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+32
34.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 32 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
37.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 3 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2558% → 56%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
42.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
43.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
43.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 39 yds , Sam Wiglusz returns for no gain to the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0546% → 48%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
46.3%
CJ Harris run for 10 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
48.0%
CJ Harris pass intercepted Nate Bauer return for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
18 plays · 55 yds · 4:3258% → 62%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
42.4%
Stuart, Jacquez rush for 2 yards to the TOLEDO21, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 9 yards to the TOLEDO10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 19
OWN 10
0
42.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-1
43.1%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 9Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+20
44.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
42.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+11
43.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
41.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
40.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
39.4%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
40.1%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+7
39.9%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-7
39.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 17
OPP 37
-5
43.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 22
OPP 42
+16
43.7%
Dequan Finn run for 16 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
37.7%
Thomas Cluckey 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
41.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4741% → 39%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
41.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
41.4%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
40.0%
CJ Harris run for 1 yd to the Ohio 30Similar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
39.4%
Jack Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5461% → 59%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
39.4%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
39.7%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
40.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
39.4%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
39.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+2
40.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
41.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ohio 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2941% → 39%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
41.0%
CJ Harris sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 16Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+6
40.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
39.3%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+20
38.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 43 yds , Adam Beale returns for 20 yds to the Toled 42 TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:4163% → 62%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
36.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+48
39.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 48 yds to the Ohio 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
34.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
34.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+6
36.7%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 4
OPP 10
-9
38.4%
Dequan Finn sacked by Kai Caesar for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:0441% → 41%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
41.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
41.4%
CJ Harris pass complete to James Bostic for 7 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+1
41.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+30
42.4%
Sam Wiglusz run for 30 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
46.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-2
46.9%
Sieh Bangura run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+1
43.7%
CJ Harris pass complete to Miles Cross for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
41.3%
Jack Wilson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 7:0961% → 85%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
39.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
39.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+10
40.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
38.9%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
37.9%
Micah Kelly run for 15 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
36.1%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
36.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
35.3%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
35.3%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
35.1%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
35.0%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+8
33.7%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+15
32.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 15 yds to the Ohio 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
31.1%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 17Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-5
31.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 22Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+6
31.7%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
15.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0517% → 14%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.1%
Sieh Bangura run for no gain to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.1%
CJ Harris run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+21
15.4%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 21 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
18.0%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
16.9%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-1
16.1%
Sieh Bangura run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+56
14.0%
Nathanial Vakos 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:2887% → 89%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
12.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+13
13.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
50
+1
11.1%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
10.0%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-1
10.4%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 46Similar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 6
OPP 46
-5
10.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
11.0%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ohio 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:0310% → 8%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
9.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 4 yds to the Ohio 6Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+18
9.6%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 18 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
10.2%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
10.0%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+6
9.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 6 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
8.2%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 5 yds · 1:2692% → 96%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
7.6%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-10
6.0%
Boone, Peny rush for no gain to the OHIO22, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the OHIO32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-1
5.4%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 33Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+4
5.1%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+4
3.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 4 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:534% → 4%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.1%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.7%
CJ Harris pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 7 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
3.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 12 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
4.2%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
3.9%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
3.7%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
3.5%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:36
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q2 6:47
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+11.2
FG · Q2 0:16
Thomas Cluckey 44 yd FG GOOD
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com