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OHIO

Ohio 32 at Ball State 18

BALL
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2022 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:52 · Jack Wilson punt for 34 yds, downed at the BalSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense−21.6Score differential−10.4Garbage-time factor−5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Pregame prior−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:13: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 13 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:34: Nathanial Vakos 21 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +4.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:13: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds for a TD, (John Paddock pass to Brady Hunt for Two-Point Conversion) — BALL win probability +13.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:52: Sieh Bangura run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:54: John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 7 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +14.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 13:51BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:44BALL 4th & 3 at OHIO 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30OHIO 4th & 1 at BALL 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:20BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:34OHIO 4th & 4 at BALL 4, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:52OHIO 4th & 6 at BALL 35, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−0.6
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:46OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 42, up 16
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:50BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:50OHIO 4th & 21 at OHIO 14, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:41OHIO 4th & 13 at OHIO 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−4.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:28BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.9%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:44OHIO 4th & 2 at BALL 19, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:04BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00OHIO 4th & 3 at BALL 5, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:27BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 0 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:14OHIO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:13OHIO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:13BALL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:52OHIO Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:54BALL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0445% → 45%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
45.1%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
45.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
45.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Sam Wiglusz at the Ohio 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3355% → 54%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sieh BanguraSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
45.3%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
45.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Alec Burton for 6 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
45.8%
Jack Wilson punt for 40 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 29 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:2146% → 48%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
45.8%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
45.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
45.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Justin BirchetteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+5
45.7%
Borrow, Lucas punt 43 yards to the OHIO31, Wiglusz, Sam return 2 yards to the OHIO33, PENALTY OHIO running into kicker 5 yards to the BALLST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
46.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
46.6%
Steele, Carson rush for 3 yards to the BALLST39, PENALTY OHIO offside 5 yards to the BALLST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+19
47.1%
Carson Steele run for 19 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
47.4%
Carson Steele run for 27 yds to the Ohio 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
47.6%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the Ohio 5Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
47.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
48.2%
Ben VonGunten 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 8:2152% → 56%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
48.3%
Sieh Bangura run for 9 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+10
48.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 10 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
48.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
47.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 5 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
48.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 4 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
48.0%
Jake Neatherton run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
48.3%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+11
48.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 11 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
47.7%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Kyle King for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+4
48.8%
Kurtis Rourke run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+13
49.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 13 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
47.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
47.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
48.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1246% → 48%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.8%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
45.9%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
45.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
46.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
50
+3
48.0%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 45 Carson Steele fumbled, recovered by Ohio Torrie Cox Jr. , return for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:4256% → 65%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
43.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 11 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
43.3%
Jake Neatherton run for 9 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+7
42.7%
Kurtis Rourke run for 7 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
42.7%
Jake Neatherton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
35.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 13 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5035% → 34%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
34.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
33.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 39 yds , Sam Wiglusz returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:3665% → 72%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
35.1%
Kurtis Rourke run for 10 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
34.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+45
33.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 45 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+3
32.9%
Bangura, Sieh rush for loss of 3 yards to the BALLST10, fumble by Bangura, Sieh recovered by BALLST at BALLST10, PENALTY BALLST face mask 3 yards to the BALLST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to James BosticSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
33.2%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
28.5%
Nathanial Vakos 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:1129% → 29%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
28.5%
Carson Steele run for 17 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
28.6%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+11
28.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 11 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
28.9%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+17
28.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 17 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
28.9%
Carson Steele run for 18 yds to the Ohio 19 Carson Steele fumbled, recovered by OhioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:5774% → 78%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
26.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 16 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
25.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 19 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
24.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 5 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
24.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+21
24.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 21 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sam WigluszSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
23.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 13 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-3
22.2%
CJ Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 10 CJ Harris fumbled, recovered by BalSt Kyle KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:1326% → 26%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
25.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 15 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
25.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 14 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
26.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Nick PresleySimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
25.7%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 6:0375% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
24.3%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
23.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
50
-10
21.8%
Harris, CJ pass complete to Bostic, James for 24 yards to the BALLST26, PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the OHIO40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+16
22.5%
CJ Harris run for 16 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
21.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
21.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
20.2%
CJ Harris run for no gain to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
20.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jake Neatherton for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+1
18.6%
CJ Harris pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
19.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 34 yds, downed at the BalSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0621% → 20%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
21.0%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the BalSt 1Similar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
19.8%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5483% → 84%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.4%
CJ Harris run for 8 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
16.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
16.9%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to James BosticSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
16.8%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Sam WigluszSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
17.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 7 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
16.5%
Jack Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5018% → 18%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
18.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 8 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+9
19.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 9 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
18.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
19.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Vaughn PembertonSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
19.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for no gain to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
18.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:5586% → 86%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.5%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
14.0%
CJ Harris run for no gain to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
14.0%
Harris, CJ pass complete to Jones, Jacoby for 15 yards to the OHIO44, PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the OHIO19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
14.3%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 14Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
13.9%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Sam WigluszSimilar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+11
14.1%
Jack Wilson punt for 36 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for 11 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:2719% → 32%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
18.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Nick Presley for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+21
18.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 21 yds to the Ohio 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
19.2%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
19.2%
John Paddock sacked by Jack McCrory for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 10Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
32.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds for a TD, (John Paddock pass to Brady Hunt for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1376% → 92%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
23.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+22
23.6%
CJ Harris pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 22 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
20.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 41 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.5%
Sieh Bangura run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:5614% → 26%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
14.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-5
15.6%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
14.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for no gain to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+22
14.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 22 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
14.6%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the Ohio 38Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
14.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
14.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady Hunt, broken up by Zack SandersSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+10
13.5%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ohio 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
15.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 16 yds to the Ohio 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
11.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the Ohio 7Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
11.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
26.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 7 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0982% → 84%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
17.6%
Jake Neatherton run for 1 yd to the Ohio 31Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
17.4%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 1 yd to the Ohio 32Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
17.6%
CJ Harris sacked by Clayton Coll and Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 27Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+48
16.3%
Jack Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BALLST 35 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0719% → 16%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
18.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 16 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
21.1%
John Paddock run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
18.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 5 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-10
17.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+10
14.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 10 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
15.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:4191% → 95%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
8.9%
CJ Harris run for 20 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
8.1%
CJ Harris run for 2 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
7.6%
Jake Neatherton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+4
6.9%
Jake Neatherton run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
5.4%
Nathanial Vakos 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:366% → 5%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
5.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 16 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
6.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
6.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
6.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-43
5.3%
John Paddock pass intercepted Alvin Floyd return for 43 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:0395% → 98%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
4.7%
Jake Neatherton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+5
3.8%
Jake Neatherton run for 5 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+3
3.6%
Jake Neatherton run for 3 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
1.6%
Nathanial Vakos 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.1%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
1.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
1.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:54
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 7 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q3 1:13
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds for a TD, (John Paddock pass to Brady Hunt for Two-Point Conversion)
+13
TD · Q4 13:52
Sieh Bangura run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com